College Football Playoff Bubble Watch: ESPN breaks down who's in, who's out after Week 11

At this point in the season, every result each weekend can be a notable one when it comes to the College Football Playoff. That includes Week 11, the first full one in the month of November, based on how ESPN’s Heather Dinich has again shifted in her latest bubble watch for the CFP.

Dinich posted that update to her bubble watch in an article on Tuesday morning, with the first update set to come tonight for the CFP Top-25. The exercise breaks down who’s already in, who’s on the brink as either the first team out or still in the mix, and who’s already out in a conference-by-conference breakdown.

Here is that latest projection of the playoff bubble as posted this morning by Dinich:

SEC

Would Be In: Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas, Texas A&M
Last Team In: Texas
First Team Out: Oklahoma
Still In The Mix: Vanderbilt
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee

Texas has become maybe the most interesting team in the country as far as playoff hopes, as Dinich now has the Longhorns as the final at-large in the field. That’s with BYU, ranked ahead of them last week, losing while they were on a bye, and as they have opportunities left to further boost their resumé as a two-loss team, even still with a chance for them at being in with a three-loss record, with a game this weekend at Georgia and then a season finale against Texas A&M.

Oklahoma, coming off a bye too, and Vanderbilt, after an overtime win over Auburn, are also looming, while Missouri fell to out with a loss to A&M on Saturday. With all that, the Southeastern Conference is up to five teams in the field for Dinich with Texas A&M, her new projected winner of the SEC Championship, along with Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, and Texas.

Big Ten

Would Be In: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
Last Team In: Oregon
First Team Out: USC
Still In The Mix: Michigan
Out: Iowa, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Washington, Wisconsin

Conversely, the bubble is going the other way for the Big Ten. USC, with a win over Northwestern, and Michigan, coming off a bye, remain in contention, but the league lost two other opportunities with losses for Iowa, in a five-point defeat to the Ducks, and Washington, with a poor, three-point road loss to the Badgers, as they’re the third respective losses for both the Hawkeyes and the Huskies.

The Big Ten does still have the top two overall seeds in this projection with Ohio State, the predicted winner of the Big Ten Championship, along with Indiana and Oregon, who is in a better standing this week by winning on the road in Iowa City. It’s now a question of if this league can get to a fourth team in the field, with that being for either the Trojans or the Wolverines.

Big 12

Would Be In: Texas Tech
First Team Out: BYU
Still In The Mix: Cincinnati, Utah
Out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia

Lubbock, Texas saw the most important game of the season so far in the Big 12, with Texas Tech winning 29-7 over BYU in a Top-10 matchup. That now has the Red Raiders as the lone team from the conference in, as the Cougars fell to outside the field in this bubble projection by Dinich.

With that, we’ll have to see how far that Brigham Young falls for the selection committee tonight to know where they’re viewed now as far as the playoff. That’ll also better determine if this league is more so viewed as a one-bid league or if the title game’s runner-up, regardless of who it is among the three teams with a real chance to still be in the conference championship between the Cougars, Bearcats, and Utes, could also get into the CFP.

ACC

Would Be In: Georgia Tech
First Team Out: Virginia
Still In The Mix: Duke, Louisville, Miami, Pittsburgh, SMU
Out: Boston College, California, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Up: Georgia Tech, Duke, Pittsburgh, SMU
Down: Virginia, Louisville

At this point with three weeks to go, it’s a crapshoot in the ACC. That’s evidenced as Georgia Tech, despite not even playing this past weekend on a bye coming off their first loss of the fall, is back to being the projected champion from this conference following a loss for Virginia on Saturday to Wake Forest.

Also, because of that, Dinich is now just grouping all of the teams with a chance to be in Charlotte into still being in the mix for this league for the College Football Playoff. That currently looks to be setting up as a play-in game for the field as for whoever meets and whoever goes on to win the ACC Championship.

Independent

Would Be In: Notre Dame

So long as Notre Dame keeps winning, they should expect to be in the bracket somewhere for the College Football Playoff. That was proven last week as the Irish, winning six straight after those opening two losses, were the final at-large in the initial release of the CFP Rankings.

They’ve now since won again to get to seven-straight victories with a 49-10 win over Navy on Saturday. That should have them in even better standing within the field by tonight, with the Fighting Irish’s next game likely being their most important one left as far as their chances of making the CFP.

Group of Five

Would Be In: South Florida
Work to do: James Madison, North Texas, Tulane

Up: South Florida, Tulane
Down: Memphis, San Diego State

The Group of Five saw some big changes with their bubble during Week 11, with a Friday night loss for Memphis taking the Tigers out of the spot and likely out of consideration with less a chance now of being in the American Championship. San Diego State, despite still being likely to play for and win the Mountain West, also dropped with a blowout loss taken on Saturday.

That now has South Florida, after a bounce-back win over UTSA and with a key matchup coming up against Navy, back as the highest-projected champion out of the G5 for Dinich. North Texas and Tulane then also remain in contention out of the American with them, while James Madison is also right there as the top team from the Sun Belt.

Bracket

First-Round Byes

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten Champion)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC Champion)
No. 4 Alabama

First-Round Games

No. 12 South Florida (American Champion) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Georgia Tech (ACC Champion) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Texas at No. 7 Texas Tech (Big 12 Champion)
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oregon

Quarterfinal Games

No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 11 Georgia Tech/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Texas/No. 7 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State