Conference Talk: Are We Finally Starting to Make Sense?
Everyone discussing it. Everyone has a source. Everyone knows what’s going to happen with conference realignment.
Except they don’t.
I finally am starting to see news hit on Twitter that actually makes sense. It started with this tweet from Wilner yesterday which is exactly what I’ve been saying for a while now.
The leaks going to these Twitter accounts relaying ‘information’ aren’t from Kevin Warren or Greg Sankey or George Kliavkoff. There’s probably less than 2 dozen people that actually know half of what’s going on. A few network folks, some conference commissioners and probably some school AD’s and presidents.
Essentially, a group of people that answers to nobody and do as much talking (leaking) as they please. We’ll call it ‘controlled information.’
I’m seeing tweets that really make a lot of sense Wednesday night and Thursday morning. And they confirm what I’ve said all along that really just used common sense, not inside sources.
First things first, we wait on Notre Dame.
Which has always been the case. The Irish have options. They do have a window to operate in, but it wasn’t some three-day window. I’ve said this since day one, this was always the next domino. They are the biggest property.
These matters take time. And you have no leverage if you make an immediate decision with your first offer. Leverage is only created by attracting several offers or at the very least, playing some hardball.
Again, all of this, all of it, every decision by every school and conference is based around money. That’s it. Network deals, dollars and cents.
Now at some point logic would probably enter the discussion. Not nearly as important as money, but still going to be a component at some point.
And the logic I’m talking about is logistics.
USC and UCLA jumping into the B1G was just the foundation pieces for that conference. Credit Kevin Warren for being pretty calculated and playing chess while everyone else was playing tic-tac-toe.
But logistically, it was not going to be sustainable long-term for USC and UCLA to be traveling back East every week. A few games of football isn’t a massive deal. It’s not ideal, but manageable. All of the other sports however, which play a lot more games, it wasn’t logical.
And the people that make these decisions know that. They aren’t dumb. But everything has a process.
As of today, our guy Greg Flugaur is easily, EASILY making the most sense on these talks.
And I would say most of his recent updates (Thursday morning) I think are starting to actually paint a realistic picture.
Flugaur also mentioned if Notre Dame waits, Oregon/UW/Stanford could still join at a decreased payout. Which isn’t ideal, but it’s still a much better option than a dying Pac-10 or a dead Big 12. You’d make more money and be in the conference you need for survival.
However Flugaur’s source believes Notre Dame has realized staying independent is not a viable long-term option (pretty obvious) and a move to the Big Ten could come sooner than later. The Irish have time, but not forever.
A Big 12 merger was never the answer.
That was a band-aid on a bullet hole. Duct tape on a sinking ship. The Big 12 has a couple of decent properties left, but I’d argue they are in worse shape than the Pac-12 minus the L.A. schools. Oregon, Washington, Stanford and even Cal have pretty significant value. Both in academics and media markets.
Clearly the Big-12 felt it needed to do some damage control so it leaked “ending talks” with the Pac-12.
In what world does this tweet make any sense? Pass on the Pac-12 schools so you can work on ACC schools in 14 years? Come on man.
Meanwhile what really probably is going on is schools like Arizona, ASU, Colorado and Utah are trying to come up with a contingency plan. A merger with those schools and the (remaining) Big-12 schools is probably the best thing for their survival. Really an elevated Mountain West, if you will.
More than likely we’ll see a third conference develop down the line. It will likely include some Pac-12 flavor, some Big-12 flavor and what’s left of the ACC. (More on that in a second) But it will be a distant third behind what the SEC and B1G ultimately end up with.
What about the ACC?
Good question right. They remain this wild card in the whole scenario.
The ACC has some tremendous properties in it. Clemson, North Carolina, Florida State, Miami, just to name the biggest ones. I’m sure Kevin Warren and his ‘super plan’ for conference expansion has eyes on that prize.
But the current TV deal with ESPN has them locked in until 2036. Let’s be real though. They aren’t sticking with the current deal for the next 14 years. They can’t. And they won’t.
I won’t pretend to know the inner workings of their conference. I don’t. But I do know logic. And if everyone else is cashing in, those schools will want to as well. Again, this is all about money, nothing else.
In my last update, (July 11) I wrote about these things happening in stages. And at the time, only 4 schools had made a move leaving us at stage 2. Perhaps this next move of ND, UW, UO, Stan to the B1G is stage 3. Any moves by the ACC would likely be stage 4. And whoever groups up after that is probably the fifth and final stage. For the most part.
That’s how I see this working out as of today. But again, as I’ve said all along, I have no inside sources. Just logic.