Exploring likely College Football Playoff combinations ahead of Week 8

On3 imageby:Tim Verghese10/22/21

TimVerghese

The College Football Playoff race is as wide open as it’s been in recent years. Traditional powers Alabama, Ohio State and Clemson all have at least one loss. Now entering Week 8, the picture is starting to come into focus. ESPN’s Seth Waldon broke down the most likely College Football Playoff combinations.

Most likely College Football Playoff Combinations

10% chance: Alabama, Cincinnati, Georgia, Oklahoma

The path for this scenario: Cincinnati, Oklahoma and Alabama win out, with Georgia only losing to Alabama in the SEC championship game. In this scenario, the Big Ten takes itself out with no team having fewer than two losses.

In the Big Ten, Ohio State, Michigan, Iowa and Michigan State all remain in playoff contention. The Buckeyes and Hawkeyes sit at one loss apiece, while the Wolverines and Spartans are undefeated. Over the next month, Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State will face off, while Iowa controls its own destiny with no ranked opponents left on the schedule, but will likely face one of the three aforementioned Big Ten East opponents in the Big Ten Championship. Given the matchups ahead, it’s likely all four teams take each other out of playoff contention.

7% chance: Cincinnati, Georgia, Michigan, Oklahoma

This College Football Playoff scenario is as similarly straight forward as the first combination. Oklahoma and Cincinnati win out, plus this time Georgia wins the SEC and Michigan wins out. In this scenario, Alabama loses to Georgia in the SEC Championship.

7% chance: Cincinnati, Georgia, Ohio State, Oklahoma

Identical to the second scenario, except Ohio State doesn’t lose another game, defeats Michigan head to head on Nov. 27, and wins the Big Ten.

6% chance: Alabama, Georgia, Michigan, Oklahoma

A scenario that occurs if Cincinnati loses a game down the stretch, or the College Football Playoff committee continues to shun the Group of 5. Alabama holds one loss, to Texas A&M, but still appears to be on a collision course with Georgia in the SEC Championship. Provided that neither Georgia or Alabama lose before then, should Alabama win, both teams are expected to make the playoff.

6% chance: Alabama, Cincinnati, Georgia, Ohio State

This College Football Playoff scenario occurs if Oklahoma picks up a loss or two down the stretch. Waldon believes the committee would select a one-loss champion Ohio State ahead of a one-loss champion Oklahoma.

6% chance: Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, Oklahoma

Similar scenario to the fourth scenario, except Ohio State doesn’t lose another game, defeats Michigan head to head on Nov. 27, and wins the Big Ten.

5% chance: Alabama, Cincinnati, Georgia, Michigan

This College Football Playoff scenario is identical to the fifth scenario, except Michigan defeats Ohio State head to head on Nov. 27, and wins the Big Ten.