Field of 64 Projections: Hosting line, NCAA Tournament bubble shifted after Week 8

There are some notable changes in this week’s Field of 64 projections. A wild week of college baseball has led to changes to the NCAA Tournament picture, from the hosting line down to the bubble.

The SEC again leads the way with 12 teams in the projected field. Other conferences with multiple bids are the ACC (9), Big 12 (7), Big Ten (5), Conference USA (3), Sun Belt (3) and American (2). On the hosting front, the SEC has six and is followed by the ACC (4), Big 12 (2), Big Ten (2), and Sun Belt (1).

As a reminder, the NCAA Tournament selection committee will seed the top 32 teams beginning this season. The change will have a notable impact on how teams are placed into the field. For a full breakdown of the changes coming, read here.

The path to the College World Series is well underway. Here’s our updated projections after Week 8.

Field of 64 Projections: Bubble Watch

Last Four In: Liberty, Oklahoma State, Cincinnati, Michigan
First Four Out: UAB, Louisville, Baylor, USF
Next Four Out: Notre Dame, Purdue, Clemson, Kansas State

There are some notable changes on the bubble this week, with Liberty, Oklahoma State and Michigan each entering the field while Cincinnati stays in after dropping into the last four in group. On the outside, UAB and USF both finish just outside, keeping the American in position to earn more than the two bids it receives this week. The ACC is also heavily represented with Louisville, Notre Dame and Clemson just outside, in addition to Baylor, Purdue and Kansas State.

Los Angeles Regional

1. UCLA (1)*
2. Kansas (31)
3. UTSA
4. Nevada*

To no surprise, UCLA remains our top overall seed. The Bruins are 29-2 overall, 15-0 in Big Ten play and currently on a 23-game winning streak while sitting No. 1 in RPI. They’re joined by Kansas, who is trending upwards thanks to a 9-3 start to Big 12 play. UTSA also finds itself in Los Angeles, staying in the field as an at-large despite no longer being the projected American champion.

Gainesville Regional

1. Florida (16)
2. Southern Miss (17)
3. Pittsburgh
4. Saint Joseph’s*

Florida holds on as a host in this week’s Field of 64, even after dropping its series to Ole Miss. The Gators are now 7-5 in SEC play, but sit No. 7 in RPI with a No. 4 strength of schedule. Southern Miss remains our 17th seed, just on the outside of the hosting picture. They’re 7-5 in Sun Belt play and No. 16 in RPI, putting them right in the mix to be a top 16 seed.

Tuscaloosa Regional

1. Alabama (9)
2. TCU (24)
3. Southeast Missouri State*
4. Oral Roberts*

Alabama is on a rapid rise right now, and nearly snuck into the top eight overall seeds before coming in at No. 9. The Crimson Tide are 25-8 overall, 8-4 in the SEC and currently No. 2 in RPI with a No. 3 strength of schedule. If they stay hot, that’s certainly a top eight-caliber resume. TCU continues to trend higher itself, currently No. 25 in RPI at 20-11 overall and 7-5 in the Big 12.

Conway Regional

1. Coastal Carolina (8)*
2. Wake Forest (28)
3. Campbell*
4. Murray State*

For the second straight week, Coastal Carolina is our No. 8 overall seed. The Chanticleers continue to roll through Sun Belt play, even though they dropped their first conference game of the season in a series victory this weekend. Now at 23-8 overall, 11-1 in the Sun Belt and No. 12 in RPI, Coastal is in great position for the postseason. Wake Forest is an interesting team right now, but they continue to creep up and could have a path to hosting themselves down the stretch.

Tallahassee Regional

1. Florida State (5)
2. Oklahoma (25)
3. Winthrop*
4. North Florida*

Florida State is up one spot on the seeding line in this week’s Field of 64, coming in as the No. 5 overall seed. The Seminoles are 24-7 overall, 9-3 in ACC play and No. 4 in RPI. It’d be surprising if they finish anything short of a host at this point. Oklahoma is now 5-7 in SEC play, but could also factor into the hosting race eventually They’re 21-10 overall and No. 18 in RPI with the No. 7 strength of schedule.

Auburn Regional

1. Auburn (12)
2. Oregon (22)
3. Kent State*
4. Mercer*

Auburn won a big series against Arkansas this past weekend, but they drop a couple of spots down to our No. 12 overall seed this week due to what happened around them. The Tigers are 22-9 overall, 6-6 in SEC play and No. 5 in RPI with the No. 1 strength of schedule, putting them in position to re-enter the top eight mix if they keep winning. Oregon dropped its series to Michigan over the weekend, but they remain a 2-seed.

Los Angeles Regional

1. USC (13)
2. Arizona State (20)
3. UC Santa Barbara*
4. California Baptist*

USC was swept over the weekend by top-ranked UCLA, and they drop a couple of spots to the No. 13 overall seed in this week’s Field of 64. Still, they’re 27-6 overall, 10-5 in the Big Ten and No. 9 in RPI, and they’d be a safe bet to host at this point. Arizona State continues to be in the mix as well, but currently sit in third in our Big 12 pecking order and come in as the No. 20 overall seed. UC Santa Barbara also takes over as our Big West Champion, making this an intriguing all-west regional field along with California Baptist.

Athens Regional

1. Georgia (4)
2. Jacksonville State (30)*
3. Michigan
4. Yale*

Georgia swept Mississippi State over the weekend, and has moved up to a top four seed this week. The Bulldogs are currently No. 21 in RPI, but are 27-6 overall and in sole possession of first place in the SEC at 10-2. Jacksonville State remains a 2-seed as our projected Conference USA champion this week, while Michigan finds itself in Athens after taking its series over Oregon and entering the field as the final team in.

Austin Regional

1. Texas (2)*
2. Missouri State (32)
3. Oklahoma State
4. Bethune-Cookman*

Texas is once again our SEC champion and No. 2 overall seed in this week’s Field of 64. The Longhorns are 26-5 overall, 9-3 in the SEC, No. 3 in RPI with the No. 10 strength of schedule. Even after a tight weekend against South Carolina, Texas is in a great position as a top seed. Missouri State enters the field this week, and jumps all the way to a 2-seed as the No. 32 overall. At this point, they’re No. 11 in RPI and are undoubtedly in the field. Oklahoma State also finds itself in, now sitting 21-11 overall, 6-6 in the Big 12 and No. 42 in RPI after sweeping Cincinnati.

Charlottesville Regional

1. Virginia (15)
2. Texas A&M (18)
3. UConn*
4. Bucknell*

Virginia has now dropped back-to-back series, most recently losing two out of three to Florida State. Still, they’re 24-9 overall, 8-7 in ACC play and No. 13 in RPI with the No. 12 strength of schedule, keeping them in position to host as long as they can get back to winning. Texas A&M could be a team ready to take their spot, as the Aggies are 25-6, 7-5 in the SEC and No. 17 in RPI, but with the No. 46 strength of schedule.

Orlando Regional

1. UCF (10)*
2. Ole Miss (21)
3. Miami
4. Bryant*

UCF has put itself in position to host, and they are in this week’s Field of 64 after taking their series this past weekend over West Virginia and becoming our projected Big 12 champion. The Knights are 20-9 overall, 10-2 in the Big 12, No. 22 in RPI and No. 20 in strength of schedule. Ole Miss is another team still in the hosting mix, and they took a series from Florida over the weekend. The Rebels are No. 10 in RPI at 22-11 overall with the No. 2 in strength of schedule, but still just 5-7 in the SEC.

Corvallis Regional

1. Oregon State (7)
2. LSU (27)
3. NC State
4. Gonzaga*

Playing an independent schedule has Oregon State with a tight margin for error, but they look like a top eight host right now. They come in as the No. 7 overall seed, currently 24-6 overall and No. 6 in RPI. LSU also jumps back up to a 2-seed after taking the series from Tennessee. Their RPI is currently No. 70, but that should improve down the stretch. NC State got back on track with a sweep over Notre Dame, moving them above the Last Four In category for this week.

Chapel Hill Regional

1. North Carolina (6)
2. East Carolina (26)*
3. Cincinnati
4. Rider*

North Carolina is currently 27-5-1 on the year and 11-4 in ACC play, sitting at No. 14 in RPI. They continue to look like a legitimate host and currently sit in the top eight. They’re joined in Chapel Hill by a familiar team, as East Carolina takes over as our projected American champion and jumps to the 2-seed line. The Pirates are 20-12-1 overall, 6-3 in the American and No. 29 in RPI with the No. 15 strength of schedule. Cincinnati continues to trend in the wrong direction, but they hold on as our second-to-last team in this week.

Starkville Regional

1. Mississippi State (11)
2. Boston College (23)
3. Texas State
4. Lamar*

Mississippi State was our No. 4 overall seed last week, but drop seven spots down to No. 11 in this week’s Field of 64 after being swept by Georgia. They are still 25-7 overall, 7-5 in the SEC and No. 15 in RPI, and remain in play for a top eight seed. Boston College remains on the 2-seed line, currently 22-11 overall, 9-6 in the ACC and No. 23 in RPI. Texas State also comes in as the 3-seed, currently 21-10, 8-4 in the Sun Belt and No. 38 in RPI.

Morgantown Regional

1. West Virginia (14)
2. Nebraska (19)
3. Arkansas
4. Wright State*

West Virginia lost its series to UCF and lost their spot as our Big 12 champion, but they’re still hosting. The Mountaineers are 21-7 overall, 8-4 in Big 12 play and No. 19 in RPI. Nebraska is trending towards the hosting bubble, currently on a 10-game winning streak, 26-6 overall, 11-1 in the Big Ten and No. 27 in RPI. Arkansas, on the other hand, plummets to a 3-seed as their struggles continue. The Razorbacks are 20-13 overall, 5-7 in the SEC and No. 56 in RPI, and need to turn things around quickly.

Atlanta Regional

1. Georgia Tech (3)*
2. Kentucky (29)
3. Liberty
4. Fairleigh Dickinson*

Georgia Tech continues its dominant year so far, currently 26-5 overall, 12-3 in the ACC and No. 8 in RPI as our ACC champion. The Yellow Jackets, should they continue this pace, are a top eight lock and a clear top five seed. Kentucky, while they have lost two series in a row, are still a 2-seed right now at 23-8 overall, 6-6 in SEC play and No. 20 in RPI. Liberty also joins the field as one of the last teams in, and are currently No. 33 in RPI with a 22-9 overall record including 9-3 in Conference USA.