Field of 64 Projections: New top seed, host emerge as conference tournaments near end

Over the next two days, conference tournaments will wrap up and bids will be solidified for the NCAA Tournament across college baseball. Before we get there, it’s time to update our Field of 64 projections.

The SEC leads the way again, with a nation-leading 13 bids. Other conferences with multiple bids are the ACC (10), Big 12 (8), Big Ten (3), Big East (3) and Sun Belt (3). Hosting wise, the SEC leads with seven, followed by the ACC with four. The Big Ten also has two hosts, while the remaining come from the Big 12, Sun Belt, and independent.

Entering Saturday, just three conferences had wrapped up their tournament with their auto-bid solidified; Ivy (Columbia), Patriot (Holy Cross), Southland (Houston Christian). To track every conference tournament’s auto-bid, click here.

The 16 regional hosts will be revealed on Sunday night starting at 8:30 p.m. ET across the NCAA social media pages. Then, the full field will be released at noon ET on Monday.

*denotes automatic qualifier for conference champions

Projections are entering Saturday, May 24

Field of 64 Projections: Bubble Watch

Last Four In: Oklahoma State, Arizona State, Troy, Virginia
First Four Out: Notre Dame, Western Kentucky, Cal Poly, UTRGV

Oklahoma State went 1-1 in the Big 12 Tournament, and the win was a big one. Currently at 43 in RPI, the Cowboys are in range and the right side of the bubble. Arizona State was one-and-done, and that put them in danger. Still, Arizona State’s 18 Big 12 wins during the regular season keeps them on the good side of the bubble.

Troy went 18-12 in the Sun Belt, but the resume is lacking with just 3 Q1 wins and 5 Q2 wins. Still, they get the nod at RPI 45, though they’re really rooting for no more stolen bids. Virginia was one-and-done in the ACC Tournament, but due to movement around them, they actually move onto the right side of the bubble for us right now. Like Troy, stolen bids will determine their fate.

Nashville Regional

1. Vanderbilt (1)*
2. Northeastern*
3. Xavier
4. Little Rock*

Vanderbilt has risen a lot down the stretch, and now they’re our top overall seed in today’s Field of 64. They are No. 1 in RPI and still alive in the SEC Tournament, and their 16 Q1 wins rank them third in college baseball.

Los Angeles Regional

1. UCLA (16)
2. UC Irvine*
3. Cincinnati
4. Saint Mary’s*

UCLA is still hanging on as a host for now. The Bruins are up to 14 in RPI, and their 22-8 record through the Big Ten is an impressive total. If they keep winning, they’ll host. If they don’t there are other teams below them that are still playing, and in play, too.

Austin Regional

1. Texas (2)
2. UTSA*
3. Arizona State
4. Bethune-Cookman*

Texas has been our top overall seed for a while, but they drop out of that spot today. The Longhorns are currently 4 in RPI, but still have 17 Q1 wins and won the SEC regular season with a 22-8 league record. Even if they aren’t the top seed, Texas is a lock to be a top three seed and anything below that would be very surprising.

Fort Worth Regional

1. TCU (15)*
2. Ole Miss
3. USC
4. Kent State*

This regional features two strong hosting contenders, though TCU gets the nod. The Horned Frogs are 17 in RPI and went 19-11 in the Big 12, and it’s important to note that they feel to be the strongest possibility to host from the Big 12. After all, with eight bids, the Big 12 is probably going to end up with a host. Ole Miss just narrowly gets squeezed out, and would be our 17th seed overall. Their 18 Q1 wins, most in the country, is tough to deny, but the Rebels are also still alive in the SEC Tournament and can play their way back into the top 16.

Fayetteville Regional

1. Arkansas (3)
2. Kansas
3. Columbia*
4. Holy Cross*

Arkansas is right there in the mix for a top three seed, and they get No. 3 in today’s Field of 64. The Razorbacks are 5 in RPI, but went 20-10 in the SEC (second place) and have 14 Q1 wins. Even with Friday’s loss, Arkansas is locked into the top eight.

Atlanta Regional

1. Georgia Tech (14)
2. Southern Miss
3. Kentucky
4. Rhode Island*

Georgia Tech remains maybe the biggest question in the hosting race. They won the ACC regular season at 19-11 and have 12 Q1 wins with RPI at 20. But if they don’t win the ACC Tournament (still alive in semifinals), could they get squeezed out? If so, Southern Miss would be right there, as our 18th seed today.

Chapel Hill Regional

1. North Carolina (4)*
2. West Virginia
3. Creighton*
4. Long Island*

North Carolina looks like a legitimate threat to win the ACC Tournament, but even if they don’t, they feel to be in good shape as a top eight seed and as high as the top 3-4. The Tar Heels are 7 in RPI, and have 24 combined wins between Q1 and Q2.

Clemson Regional

1. Clemson (13)
2. Alabama
3. Troy
4. USC Upstate*

There has been at least a little bit of doubt surrounding Clemson’s hosting chances in recent weeks, but they are locked in now and come in as our 13th seed in today’s Field of 64. The Tigers are currently 8 in RPI. Alabama is another potential host, though probably on the outside looking in right now. That’s a tough feeling for the current No. 12 RPI team, but it’s a crowded race.

Baton Rouge Regional

1. LSU (5)
2. Duke
3. East Tennessee State*
4. North Dakota State*

LSU is also locked in as a top eight host, currently 9 in RPI with 13 Q1 wins. The Tigers are also still alive in the SEC Tournament, and will play in the semifinals on Saturday. They could factor in to the top four overall seed discussion, but fall in at No. 5 today.

Knoxville Regional

1. Tennessee (12)
2. Dallas Baptist*
3. Miami
4. Houston Christian*

Tennessee entered the SEC Tournament needing to earn some wins, and they’ve done just that. The Volunteers are up to 10 in RPI and have 14 Q1 wins, and that likely locks them in as a regional host. They come in at 12 in today’s Field of 64, and host another sneaky potential host in Dallas Baptist.

Athens Regional

1. Georgia (6)
2. NC State
3. UConn
4. Bryant*

Georgia, like the teams ahead of them, feels safe as a top eight seed. The Bulldogs finished 18-12 in SEC play, have the No. 1 non-conference RPI, and are No. 2 in overall RPI entering Saturday. Even though their 11 Q1 wins rank behind some teams around them, the Bulldogs are safe in the top eight.

Tallahassee Regional

1. Florida State (11)
2. Florida
3. Stetson*
4. Murray State*

Florida State has done what it needed this week, still alive in the semifinals of the ACC Tournament. Win or lose, it would be surprising if the Seminoles aren’t hosting at this point. They are currently 13 in RPI with 13 Q1 wins. Florida joins them, and that would be a fun regional, wouldn’t it? The Gators are in the hosting discussion themselves, though their 15-15 SEC record might not be enough.

Auburn Regional

1. Auburn (7)
2. Louisville
3. Oklahoma State
4. Wright State*

Auburn is currently sitting at 3 in RPI, and they also feel pretty safe as a top eight seed. The Tigers went 17-13 in SEC play and are 15-12 in Q1 games to go along with the No. 1 overall strength of schedule. There doesn’t really seem to be a team below them that can overtake that resume in terms of seeding.

Corvallis Regional

1. Oregon State (10)
2. Arizona
3. Virginia
4. Fresno State*

Oregon State doesn’t have a conference tournament to play in, and that might hurt them with one less opportunity to boost a resume. Still, the Beavers come in as our 10th overall seed in today’s Field of 64 and they are in play for the top eight. They are currently 6 in RPI, and have 10 Q1 wins. If the two teams in front of them fall on Saturday, Oregon State can’t be ruled out for the top eight.

Eugene Regional

1. Oregon (8)*
2. Oklahoma
3. Kansas State
4. Utah Valley*

Oregon’s performance on Saturday could determine their fate as a top eight seed. They are down to 15 in RPI, but won a share of the Big Ten regular season title at 22-8. They went 9-1 in Q1 games, and even if they do fall out of the top eight, it won’t be very far.

Conway Regional

1. Coastal Carolina (9)*
2. Wake Forest
3. Mississippi State
4. Rider*

Coastal Carolina is 11 in RPI, and they dominated most of the season while winning the Sun Belt with a 26-4 league record. The Chanticleers also have the No. 6 non-conference RPI, but will their 4-5 Q1 record be enough to warrant top eight consideration? Either way, they won’t be too far below the top eight.