Joe Lunardi: Auburn needs 'pretty deep run' in SEC Tournament to make March Madness

With two games to go in the regular season, Auburn finds itself in position to miss the NCAA Tournament. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has the Tigers among his first teams out of the field, and he said they’ll need to string some late wins together to make the field.

Auburn headed into Tuesday night’s game against LSU with a 15-14 overall record, including a 6-10 record in SEC play. The Tigers have seven of their last eight games with two matchups to play before the conference tournament, and Lunardi said Nashville will be important for their hopes of getting to March Madness.

Auburn notably closes out the regular season against Alabama, which is a pivotal game for its resume. A win that day would go a long way toward getting the Tigers into the bracket, but Lunardi said they might need to do even more from there.

“Look, Auburn, this is not last year,” Lunardi said at halftime of Tennessee vs. South Carolina. “Last year was the perfect storm for the league. The coattails are not quite as long. They’re just regular good, and Auburn’s been less than that. I think we can agree. They’ve got to win these two last games to be in position to be in position because neither of these would be great wins.

“Certainly, Alabama at the end would be. That might get them right to the bubble. I think they need a pretty deep run – a couple wins in Nashville, maybe more, depending on the draw.”

Entering Tuesday’s game, Auburn sits at No. 38 in the NET rankings. Notably, the Tigers are 5-11 against Quadrant 1 opponents compared to 10-3 against Quad 2, Quad 3 and Quad 4 teams. Additionally, they sit at No. 40 in KenPom with the 12th-most efficient offense in the country.

However, the defense has been an issue for Auburn this year. The program ranks No. 121 in KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency and has allowed 80 or more points in six of its last seven games.

As a result, the Tigers are falling out of the NCAA Tournament picture. In a year with a weak bubble, Lunardi said late wins are crucial.

“We see more teams playing their way out than playing their way in, and we see it every year right around the first of March,” Lunardi said Monday. “Look who lost — Auburn, Cal, USC, Seton Hall, Virginia Tech, San Diego State — all of these teams could be in the field, but they all lost over the weekend. Very few of their bubble competitors came away with a win.

“And that’s why, even when the bubble shrinks, as it tends to, with bid thieves, we start to run out of teams, and everybody in the country goes ‘the bubble stinks.’ It doesn’t stink. It’s just hard to win when you’re playing other NCAA tournament-level teams.”