Josh Pate Best Bets: Week 10 College Football Picks, Predictions

On Sundays, Tuesdays and Thursdays, college football analyst Josh Pate provides his picks aboard the Ramen Noodle Express for the coming weekend, offering a preview for Week 10. He dished out his first picks, a pair of Big Ten games, on Sunday night.

Pate made his picks at the end of Sunday’s episode of the Josh Pate’s College Football Show. First, he recapped how last weekend went.

“We finished 6-5, that’s nothing to write home about,” Pate said. “But it felt like we were about 4-8 or something like that. So we weren’t. So soft pat on the back to us.”

With that, here are the picks for Josh Pate in Week 10.

Illinois (-12.5) vs. Rutgers

IIllinois is coming off back-to-back losses, neither of them particularly close. The playoff window, if there ever was one, is essentially closed now. Rutgers, on the other hand, finally flipped its fortunes by beating Purdue after four straight losses prior. Can that success continue? Pate doesn’t see it.

Josh Pate: “I’m starting with two Big Ten games for this week’s slate. We are taking Illinois -12.5. We bet them yesterday, they failed us miserably, so we’re going to bet them again. Illinois -12.5 against Rutgers at home.”

Purdue (+20.5) at Michigan

Purdue has lost six straight games after starting out the year 2-0. But two of the last three losses have come by just one score. Pate thinks Purdue can keep it closer than the number against a Michigan team that has won two straight but hasn’t quite been dominant.

Josh Pate: “And we’re going to bet Purdue +21.5 at Michigan. Got a couple other Big Ten games I’m looking at. We may just bet the whole Big Ten this week. I mean when has that ever gone wrong for anyone?”

Coastal Carolina (+5.5) vs. Marshall

Coastal Carolina has racked up back-to-back wins and is feeling itself a little bit heading into a contest against Marshall. Marshall has also won its last two games. Both teams won narrowly the last time out, so who will come out on top in this one?

Josh Pate: “We are not exclusively a Big Ten betting show, so I’m going to add two more games here. Coastal Carolina, Wednesday night special I think. Coastal Carolina +5.5 against Marshall. Again, I think that game’s tomorrow night.”

Mississippi State (+4.5) at Arkansas

Mississippi State has lost some real heart-breakers in the last couple weeks, falling to Florida with a last-minute interception while in winning field goal range and then blowing a huge lead against Texas and falling in overtime. Arkansas has lost six straight now and whether the team starts to fold after some hard-fought losses remains to be seen.

Josh Pate: “Then Mississippi State. They keep getting close. Eventually it’s going to happen. We are going to bet against Arkansas this week. We are taking Mississippi State on the road +4.5. We will add several more to the Ramen Noodle Express throughout the week.”

Texas (-2.5) vs. Vanderbilt

Texas hosts Vanderbilt this weekend, and Pate is taking the Longhorns minus the points. The Commodores enter the game as the higher-ranked team, but Texas still remains the odds-on favorite. It still remains to be seen whether Arch Manning will play this weekend after getting knocked out of last week’s game against Mississippi State.

Josh Pate: “I’m adding -2.5. Last stand for the Longhorns?”

North Carolina (+2.5) at Syracuse

North Carolina lost to a ranked Virginia team at home 17-16 last week. The loss dropped the Tar Heels to 2-5 on the season. They’ll now travel to play a 3-5 Syracuse team on the road during Week 10.

Josh Pate: “We are projecting Bill Belichick to get a win this weekend. We bet him last week. They won –well, they won against the spread. They lost in real life.”

Kansas State (+7.5) vs. Texas Tech

Kansas State is finding its stride. The Wildcats have won their last two games by an average margin of 19 points per game. Meanwhile, Texas Tech suffered its first loss of the season just two weeks ago. While Pate doesn’t expect the Wildcats to upset Texas Tech on Saturday, he believes they could cause the Red Raiders to sweat.

Pate: “I think that game’s coming down to the wire. Ironically, we do have Texas Tech winning the game, but when I say we got them winning the game, the model thinks that this final will be around a 4.75-point spread.”

Wake Forest (+10.5) at Florida State

Pate is following the trends on this one. Wake Forest is on a three-game win streak, while Florida State has lost its last four outings. Though FSU could be due for a bounce-back performance, Pate isn’t buying it. He expected the Demon Deacons to keep cover on Saturday.

Pate: “Don’t overthink the room here. Wake Forest is being given too many points here. Wake +10.5, we are adding that one.”

California (+5.5) vs. Virginia

Virginia has been one of the largest surprises in the country this season. The Cavaliers are 7-1 and 4-0 in conference play. Nonetheless, Pate believes the Cavaliers are due for a lackluster showing. The Golden Bears will be hungry to pounce on the opportunity.

Pate: “The model really loves Cal in this game. You know what? Let’s add it.”

Louisville (-10.5) at Virginia Tech

In Week 6, Louisville suffered a setback loss against Virginia. However, the Cardinals have rallied since the loss and won back-to-back games, including a victory over Miami on the road. Pate doesn’t expect the Cardinals’ momentum to slow down on Saturday.

Pate: “We got Louisville at a 65% cover probability in this thing. … We have got that as a wide margin game, so we’re going to take Louisville -10.5.”

Washington State (-3.5) at Oregon State

Washington State hasn’t shied away from stiff competition this season. The Cougars have played ranked opponents in two of its last three games. Their grueling non-conference play could pay dividends on Saturday when they clash with Oregon State.

Pate: “Someone just nailed it… Washington State is -3.5 right now. Love it.”