Josh Pate lays out path to ACC 'doomsday scenario,' missing out on College Football Playoff

When the latest College Football Playoff rankings dropped Tuesday night, five ACC teams appeared in the Top 25, led by Miami. But with just a few weeks left in the season, the race for the conference champion is wide open – and Josh Pate said a “doomsday scenario” could be in play.

There’s a world where the ACC misses out on the CFP entirely, Pate said Thursday. Under the current 12-team format, the five highest-ranked conference champions receive spots in the bracket. But that doesn’t necessarily guarantee the power four conferences – the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC – get spots. Two Group of 6 leagues could have teams make it.

With USF – potentially James Madison and Tulane – lurking, Pate argued Duke has a chance to throw the ACC race into chaos. If the Blue Devils were to go 9-4 with a 7-1 record in league play and win the conference title, that could keep the ACC out of the CFP, depending on how the G6 race goes.

“Duke, right now, has four losses,” Pate said on Josh Pate’s College Football Show. “They’re 5-4. But they only have one loss in conference play. Now, it’s still a little bit of a long shot. But Duke – if they beat Virginia and North Carolina and Wake Forest – will go to Charlotte to play for the conference title. They’d probably play Georgia Tech. We’ll see about that. And regardless of who they play, they’d be in Charlotte. If they win the game, they would be a 9-4 conference champion. A four-loss team. And at that point, here’s what we have to ask ourselves. I’m almost certain the American Conference champ will be ranked higher than Duke. That may be Tulane, it may be South Florida. Either one of them would be ranked higher than Duke.

“Already, we know that South Florida is ranked 25th in the committee poll. So we know where they’re ranked. So the conference champ there is going to be in the 20-25 range. They’d be in. Here’s what we don’t know – if James Madison runs the table. … They play App State, they play Washington State and they play at Coastal Carolina. If they run the table, the question is, in this scenario, are they ranked higher than Duke? If they are, the ACC’s conference champ is getting left out of the Playoff.”

How Miami fits into ACC CFP picture

The other key team in this conversation is Miami, which became the highest-ranked ACC team this week at No. 15 in the College Football Playoff rankings. If the Hurricanes can make a run and win the conference, that could avoid the problem Josh Pate outlined.

But Pitt is looming after the Panthers take on Notre Dame this week. If Miami loses to Pitt, that could further add uncertainty to the race since that would be the Hurricanes’ third loss. Combine that with Duke’s lack of nonconference success, and Pate said there could be two Group of 6 teams in the bracket when all is said and done. That would leave the ACC out entirely.

“You’ve got to ask yourself, how highly would the committee put a 9-4 ACC champ Duke – who has not played a murderer’s row of a schedule at all and has lost to Tulane and UConn and got smoked by Illinois? So they did nothing out of conference,” Pate said. “They didn’t accomplish anything out of conference. Just happened to win their conference. That’s the ACC doomsday scenario. And the only hope there is maybe Miami grabbed an at-large spot. But Miami could drop a game, too. Like, Pitt loses to Notre Dame this weekend and then beats Miami. Very, very conceivable, is my point.

“Man, those two G5 teams making it in. You know how angry and irate people would be? Can you imagine Selection Sunday where a powerful conference is told, ‘You’re not in at all. We’re taking 12 teams and not even your conference champ is good enough to make it.’ In the words of Ian Malcolm in Jurassic Park, ‘That is chaos.'”