#MeansMoreMailbag: Best SEC non-conference matchups, Ole Miss expectations, scheduling models
The #MeansMore Mailbag returns this week after the mailbox was closed last week for a road trip to Destin for the SEC spring meetings. We had so many questions this week we had to bank some for future mailbags. That’s much appreciated.
Today we tackle some SEC non-conference matchups, Ole Miss’ contender status, overrated teams in the league and more.
As a reminder, each week I’ll answer your SEC questions. Be sure to fill up the mailbox via a DM or comment on Twitter @JesseReSimonton, email [email protected] or the @On3 Instagram account.
On to the questions…
Give me your best non-conference game this fall? — Travis
Man, this could be a solo piece later this summer (tease!) because there are lots of fun offerings involving SEC programs again this fall.
The biggest matchups include Alabama traveling to Texas, Oregon and Georgia squaring off in Atlanta in Week 1 and Miami playing at Texas A&M. There’s also Florida State vs. LSU in New Orleans on Labor Day and Cincinnati going to Arkansas.
But “best” is in the eye of the beholder, so I’m going to go with a matchup I’m most curious to watch: Utah at Florida in Week 1.
After winning the Pac-12 last season, the Utes have seemingly been overlooked this offseason with so much buzz around Lincoln Riley and USC, as well as Dan Lanning taking over at Oregon.
But Kyle Whittingham still has a squad. Cam Rising is the best QB in the Pac-12 not named Caleb Williams. Utah has a stud at tailback in Tavion Thomas and its offensive and defensive lines remain stout. The Utes have some defensive question marks after losing star linebacker Devin Lloyd and several other key contributors off its 2021 team, but they added Gators linebacker Mohamoud Diabate, who was second on UF in tackles last season, to the roster who they hope can be a facsimile to Lloyd inside.
On the surface level, there are just so many interesting storylines surrounding this game. Utah will be a Top 10 team traveling across the country to face an SEC foe for the first time since 2009. Meanwhile, Florida, which never plays a Power 5 non-conference opponent not named Florida State, will host a Pac-12 school for the first time in 33 years.
Add in the fact it’s also head coach Billy Napier’s debut with the Gators plus all the intrigue and excitement surrounding quarterback Anthony Richardson, and it’s a titillating matchup.
Vegas certainly believes so, too. While the early Alabama-Texas and Georgia-Oregon spreads are north of two touchdowns, the opening line for Utah at Florida has hovered around Utes -1 this preseason.
Why didn’t the SEC vote on a scheduling model? Is it really that complicated? — Brandon
It shouldn’t be!
The league left its spring meetings without an agreement on either the eight- or nine-game model. I detailed the specifics in a piece last week, but essentially, the mid-size sedans of the SEC (think Kentucky, Arkansas, Vandy, Mississippi State, etc.) prefer the 1-7 model, while the sports cars of the conference (see: Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Texas A&M and incoming OU and Texas) like the 3-6 model.
The sedans are in fear of running out of gas before making a bowl game, while the sports cars understand that’s a shortsighted viewpoint.
With no divisions, the 1-7 model in a 16-team conference is a poison pill framework. So in the end, the nine-game model is going to get adopted. The question is when?
Once some haggling takes place (i.e., eliminating the requirement to play another Power 5 opponent) and TV contracts get sorted out, I expect the league to announce a new nine-game slate.
What’s the average DL weight and height in the SEC? — Zach
I’m not familiar with any database that has a listing of such information, but being around the league for so long and talking anecdotally with coaches and support staffers, I’d lend a guess that the average SEC defensive lineman is around 6-foot-3, 260-270 pounds.
Obviously, size matters, and the SEC has the biggest and baddest defensive linemen in the country.
Vanderbilt, a program that hasn’t won an SEC game in two years and is the worst team in the league, has eight defensive linemen currently listed on its roster at 270 pounds or more, which I would bet is among the fewest in the whole conference. For comparison’s sake, USC, the favorite in the Pac-12 this season, has 10.
Is Ole Miss a contender this year? — J Chambes
A contender for what? The Outback Bowl? Maybe the Citrus? Sure. The SEC West? No.
The Rebels had a historic 2021 season, winning 10 regular-season games for the first time in school history. Matt Corral led Ole Miss to the No. 2 slot in the SEC West and a Sugar Bowl appearance.
But I’m skeptical they can repeat such success this fall. As discussed many times over, Lane Kiffin has done a remarkable job reloading through the transfer portal, and Ole Miss’ offense is going to remain awesome with the likes of Zach Evans, Michael Trigg, Ulysses Bentley, Jaylon Robinson and others. Still, there are questions at quarterback and there’s no guarantee, even with the major influx of talent on paper, that the team coalesces immediately on the field.
Kiffin is on record with such concerns, too, saying just last week at the SEC spring meetings, “Look no further than the NBA, when they put these teams together and everybody says, ‘Oh, this team is going to be great. This ‘Dream Team,’ or whatever, and they don’t make it very far in the playoffs, because there’s just not great chemistry.
“So, I think on paper that is good, but I think there’s a reality of locker room and culture that probably isn’t thought about very much by people that have portal rankings.”
A year ago, the Rebels beat Arkansas, Texas A&M and LSU — three teams expected to be better in 2022. Despite the fun array of playmakers and defensive transfers, I don’t see the Rebels battling for the SEC West this fall.
After Alabama and Georgia, how overrated with the SEC be this year? — Giovanni
In ESPN’s Way-To-Early preseason Top 25, seven SEC schools made the cut.
No. 1 Alabama
No. 3 Georgia
No. 5 Texas A&M
No. 20 Arkansas
No. 21 Ole Miss
No. 22 Kentucky
No. 24 Tennessee
Even LSU has been listed on some preseason rankings. So that’s more than half the conference.
I’m not sure I’d call any of those teams “overrated” aside from the Aggies, which I think are actually a year away from being a true Top 5 contender.
The reality is the SEC is DEEP this year with teams ranging from solid to perhaps really good. Even with my skepticism around Ole Miss, you can absolutely formulate an argument for the Rebels, same for the Vols, Hogs or Wildcats.
Also not listed is Mississippi State, and Mike Leach’s veteran squad could conceivably win nine games this fall.
Maybe later this fall we’ll realize a team or two was overrated this preseason, but for now, it’s a wait-and-see game.