On3 Football Recruiting Ratings and Rankings
Having previously authored the processes and protocols for the Recruiting Industry at Rivals and 247Sports, the creators of On3 have almost three decades of experience in building proprietary recruiting ratings and rankings models.
Building toward a baseline measurement of the NFL draft, the recruiting industry has had unprecedented success projecting high draft picks and success in the NFL – indicative of talent and achievement at the college level. The 2023 NFL Draft showcased the On3 Industry Ranking’s accuracy as 81.3% of Five-Stars were drafted, making the highest-rated recruit 24x more likely to be drafted than a 2-Star or lower prospect. Over the trailing three NFL draft classes, 71% of all Five-Stars were drafted.
Following is a detailed look into the On3 Ratings and Rankings Process:
1. FOOTBALL PROSPECTS FUNNEL
10,000+ prospects from three concurrent recruiting cycles are evaluated each year for consideration to be rated 3, 4, and 5-Stars, based on historical trends, data analysis, feedback from college coaches and personnel, and evaluations from the On3 Scouting Department.
2A. HISTORICAL TRENDS + DATA ANALYSIS
Ratings protocols developed from 27 yrs in the industry based on NFL historical draft trends on position value and geographical dispersion.
2B. NETWORK RELATIONSHIPS
Feedback from college coaches and recruiting personnel curated from the On3 Network of National and Fansite Reporters.
2C. SCOUTING DEPARTMENT
Led by On3 National Scouting Director Charles Power, On3 scouts, evaluates and collects data and measurables for a proprietary On3 grade. Power was previously the director of scouting for 247.
3. PLAYER RATINGS FROM RATINGS COMMITTEE
Each ranked player is then assigned an On3 rating. This is done by a Ratings Committee comprised of the On3 National Recruiting Team and chaired by Charles Power.
4. RELEASE AUDIT
A separate group, led by Charles Power, Chad Carson (Head of On3 Elite Database), and Luke Stampini (Executive Editor of Recruiting), then takes the player ratings and audits the process to ensure that all protocols and procedures were followed. This is a further check and balance to the process before the ratings and rankings are released to the public.
5. INDUSTRY RANKINGS CONTRIBUTION
In addition to our own rigorous process, On3 also charts player ratings/rankings of the other services to provide a complete picture of each top recruit for the recruiting fan. A detailed explanation of the On3 Industry Rankings is below:
On3 Industry Rankings
The On3 Industry Ranking is a proprietary algorithm that compiles ratings and rankings from all four primary recruiting media services. The On3 Industry Ranking is the industry’s most advanced, complete and unbiased measurement.
The On3 Industry Ranking weights the primary recruiting media services based on past performance data, and overall scouting and recruiting coverage investment.
For football, the algorithm is weighted as follows: On3 (35%), 247Sports (35%), Rivals.com (20%) and ESPN (10%).
For basketball, the algorithm equally weights On3, 247Sports, Rivals.com and ESPN at 25%.
The On3 Industry Rating and Ranking increases the total number of 5-stars and 4-stars seven times throughout the recruiting cycle, concluding with 32 5-stars for football and 20 for basketball. This solves for the problem of awarding 5-star ratings too early in the recruiting process to meet predefined quotas. With each passing month in the cycle, scouts in the industry have more data, information and scouting opportunities to evaluate better and project prospects. This process is referenced by the Industry “Strength” meter in the database. Listed below is the football star ranking update schedule:
August — Sophomore year watchlist: 0 5-stars, 100 4-stars
March — Initial On300 after Sophomore season: 5 5-stars, 295 4-stars
May — Spring update: 10 5-stars, 315 4-stars
October — Mid-season junior update: 15 5-stars, 335 4-stars
February — Post National Signing Day overhaul: 20 5-stars, 355 4-stars
April — Spring update: 25 5-stars, 375 4-stars
July — Summer update prior to senior season: 32 5-stars, 393 4-stars
September — Mid-season senior update: 32 5-stars, 418 4-stars
November — Post senior update: 32 5-stars, 418 4-stars
January — Final update: 32 5-stars, 418 4-stars
On3 Team Rankings, powered by the On3 Industry
The On3 Industry Team Recruiting Ranking is our best work yet. It is the most advanced, complete and unbiased ranking measurement in the industry, yet its simplicity makes it easy for fans to follow and understand.
+ The On3 Industry Team Recruiting Ranking utilizes all four major recruiting media companies: On3, 247Sports, Rivals.com and ESPN.
+ The On3 Industry Team Recruiting Ranking solves the problem of varying class sizes during the recruiting cycle. It compiles the highest-rated commits for each team up to a total based on a rolling average of current total commitments among Power 5 schools.
With this model, there are no bonus points for having more commitments than other teams, and only small deductions occur when a team has fewer commitments than the rolling average. Unlike distribution (bell) curves, this model doesn’t disproportionately weight a team’s top three or four highest-rated commits and is a more accurate representation of an entire class.