Why Nico Iamaleava is On3's No. 1 2023 prospect
On3 has released the final football prospect rankings for the 2023 cycle, and there is a new prospect atop the On300: Tennessee quarterback signee Nico Iamaleava. The Warren (Calif.) Downey caller narrowly beat out Alabama EDGE signee Keon Keeley (No. 2) and the longtime incumbent No. 1, Texas quarterback signee Arch Manning (No. 3) for the top spot.
As was the case in the the 2022 cycle, there was not a slam-dunk No. 1 prospect, in our opinion. Manning debuted as On3’s No. 1 overall prospect in the cycle for On3 back in August 2021 and held on part due to the murkiness of the cycle along with the limited sample size and exposure of he and some other top prospects.
Our goal is to assess a prospect’s long-term potential in college football, as manifested by the NFL Draft. Ideally, we want our No. 1 prospect to be the player who we feel has the highest odds of being a top overall draft pick in a few years. While that’s the aim, this has proven to be relatively rare over the course of the internet recruiting era to date. Just three players – Jadeveon Clowney (consensus No. 1 in 2011), Myles Garrett (one outlet in 2014) and Trevor Lawrence (all but one outlet in 2018) – were ranked as No. 1 prospects in high school and taken with the top pick in the NFL Draft. That’s just eight of 60 (~13%) rankings sets since 2000 that have hit on the No. 1 NFL Draft pick. There is a chance Bryce Young (one outlet in 2020) and current USC signal caller Caleb Williams (just On3 in 2021) could add their names to the small list. Still, it’s obviously a tough needle to thread.
With that in mind, let’s get into the rationale behind making Nico Iamaleava On3’s No. 1 prospect in the 2023 cycle.
Both top QBs are projections, but Iamaleava has less questions
Some have referred to the 2023 cycle as “the year of the quarterback.” There are five five-star signal callers in On3’s final rankings – Iamaleava, Manning, Oklahoma signee Jackson Arnold (No. 6), UCLA signee Dante Moore (No. 20) and USC signee Malachi Nelson (No. 30). The cycle is also deep with a number of blue-chip arms including several high-upside senior risers.
If you were to poll top college coaches and analysts on who they viewed as the top quarterback prospect, it’s unlikely there would be a consensus pick and perhaps even a majority winner. Opinions on this group vary.
For the majority of the cycle, On3 has viewed Manning and Iamaleava as having the most projectable physical tools among the top quarterbacks due to their respective frames and arm talent. While the pair has what we view to the be most high-end physical upside, there’s a degree of projection with both that is less than ideal. I personally don’t view either to be as “can’t miss” as recent No. 1 quarterbacks Bryce Young and Caleb Williams were at the same stage.
Neither Manning or Iamaleava were a truly dominant high school quarterback. Both register among the middle of the pack among On300 quarterbacks in statistical categories that we view to matter in the evaluation process.
The senior season production is essentially a wash. The completion percentages and yards per attempt are within a few tenths. Manning averaged 3.27 touchdowns per game, while Iamaleava averaged 3.1. The Tennessee signee has the slight edge in total yards per game with 238.5 to Manning’s 227.5. Manning threw fewer interceptions (2) than Iamaleava (5), while the latter has a lower interception rate over the course of their high school careers.
Iamaleava generally faced tougher teams on a week to week basis, while Manning’s competition level as a senior at Isidore Newman varied from very poor to high in a few instances.
We’ve also seen Iamaleava compete and star in neutral settings over the past few years, while Manning has not. While that’s certainly Manning’s prerogative, it’s very uncommon to never see a top quarterback prospect in a setting outside of high school football in the modern recruiting landscape. The lack of neutral context or dominant play against good competition on Friday nights leads to a degree of uncertainty that is atypical of a No. 1 overall quarterback prospect.
Nico Iamaleava has the most physical ability and upside
Given the amount of projection required with Nico Iamaleava and Arch Manning along with the very even play on Friday nights, we view Iamaleava’s superior physical ability as a key separator. The 6-foot-5.5, 190-pounder combines a big-league arm with twitchy athleticism to make for one of the most physically-gifted signal callers we’ve seen in recent cycles.
Iamaleava has palpable arm talent, with a whippy, quick release and the arm strength to drive the ball downfield with ease. Having seen both in person this fall, he has the clear edge in that department. Still, Manning has some of the better arms in the cycle and noticeably added velocity as a senior.
Another area where Iamaleava separates himself is reaction to pressure. He is a quick, reactive athlete who has shown the ability to evade pass rushers and blitzers in a split second.
This is an area where Manning did not fare as well as a senior. He took an inordinate number of sacks this fall. We charted him as being sacked 30 times over the course of the season. Sure, Manning was not playing behind a great offensive line, but most other top quarterbacks – including Iamaleava – have a sack total that is a fraction of 30. Again, we are not discounting the situation, but at the minimum it adds to the degree of unknown in Manning’s projection – especially as a contender for the No. 1 overall prospect.
Keon Keeley made things interesting
While much of the attention will focus on the two quarterbacks, there is a prospect between them in the final On300 rankings – Alabama EDGE signee Keon Keeley. The Tampa (Fla.) Berkeley Prep star made a real run at No. 1 overall with a very strong senior season, backed up by a dominant performance at the All-American Bowl earlier this month.
Keeley has a complete skill set as a pass rusher. The 6-foot-5, 240-pounder is capable of winning with speed, bend, power and technical skills. He was highly productive on Friday nights, tallying 32.5 sacks over the past two seasons. Keeley and Berkeley Prep actually played Manning and Isidore Newman during the 2021 season. The Crimson Tide signee finished the game with two sacks and an interception and honestly looked like the top prospect on the field that evening.
The overall resume – physical dimensions, film, production and dominant all-star showing – puts Keeley on the same level as recent top pass rushing prospects like like Will Anderson (Alabama) and Mykel Williams (Georgia), in our opinion.
Closing thoughts
Ultimately, the decision to make a change at No. 1 was a tough call and not one we took lightly. We view Iamaleava, Keeley and Manning to have to the potential to be a No. 1 pick if they reach their upside. Much of how the two quarterbacks ultimately fare will hinge on their development in college.
We are still high on Arch Manning‘s ability. On3 was the first outlet to rank Manning as the No. 1 overall prospect in the 2023 cycle. I was also the first national analyst to numerically rank Manning as a top prospect, following his freshman season.
It’s also worth noting that the top three prospects have the same rating (99) from On3 – as do the rest of the top eight. That group includes a third quarterback, Oklahoma signee Jackson Arnold (No. 6) – who was the most productive five-star quarterback while facing the strongest competition playing in Texas’ highest classification.
The degree of uncertainty, varying opinions, number of viable candidates and deep stable of quarterbacks should make the 2023 cycle an interesting one to track over the coming years.