Phil Steele ranks Big 12 Football schedules from toughest to easiest

The long college football season is only a few weeks from being over. By the end of August, games will be back, and the race for the highly competitive and parity-driven Big 12 is going to be underway.

Ahead of the season, Phil Steele previewed the 2025 season around college football. That included breaking down the Strength of Schedules are the country, and ranking them nationally. Within the Big 12, there is a pretty massive difference in those strength of schedules, ranking from 11th to 72nd nationally, from the easiest to the toughest.

The NCAA likes to initially rank teams based on their winning percentage in the previous season. However, Steele feels that the methodology isn’t perfect. Instead, Steele looks at his own projections for teams and balances that against their home and away schedules, creating his own rankings.

1. TCU Horned Frogs (11th nationally)

The TCU Horned Frogs are going into the 2025 season hoping to compete for a Big 12 Championship. However, they’re going to have to face what Steele considers to be the toughest schedule in the conference to do so. That’s partially to do with a non-conference schedule where they’ll travel on the road to play North Carolina and need to take on SMU, a College Football Playoff team, at home.

Within the Big 12, the Horned Frogs will see all four teams that finished with a 7-2 record last season. That may not directly translate to those teams being good in 2025, but they all should once again be competitive in the conference race next season.

2. Colorado Buffaloes (18th nationally)

The Colorado Buffaloes are going to have a pretty major challenge, replacing stars Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders. Deion Sanders knows that won’t be easy. It’s made even harder, though, by playing the second toughest schedule in the Big 12.

All of Colorado’s non-conference games are at home, and all are against FBS competition. Only one of those will be against a Power Four opponent, though, Georgia Tech. It goes to show how high Steele is on their Big 12 schedule, which includes four of the five highest-ranked teams in Steele’s preseason conference predictions.

3. Arizona Wildcats (27th nationally)

The Arizona Wildcats had higher hopes for their 2024 season than they were able to live up to. Now in their second Big 12 season and second season under Brent Brennan, the Wildcats need to improve. Otherwise, Brennan is finding his seat warming up early in his tenure there.

There is a challenge, though. Steele thinks this is a tough schedule for Arizona. The Wildcats don’t have an overwhelmingly difficult non-conference schedule. What they do have is four of the teams predicted to finish in the top five in their conference schedule.

4. Baylor Bears (30th nationally)

The Baylor Bears finished the 2024 season strong, seemingly sorting out their backfield. In particular, the quarterback position with Sawyer Robertson ready to run the show in 2025. Steele even has them first in the Big 12 for his preseason conference predictions. Still, they’ll have to battle a relatively tough schedule.

Auburn in Week 1 is going to be the big highlight of the non-conference slate for Baylor. That’s at home. Still, there are going to be a handful of tough games in conference play too throughout the season, which has them fourth in the conference’s strength of schedule rankings.

5. West Virginia Mountaineers (32nd nationally)

The West Virginia Mountaineers made a coaching change following the 2024 season, bringing back a legend in Rich Rodriguez. There is hope he can make them competitive in the Big 12, but it’s hard not to imagine that 2025 is going to be a rebuilding season.

West Virginia having the fifth-hardest Big 12 strength of schedule won’t help Rodriguez in year one. After a non-conference slate that includes rival Pitt traveling to Morgantown. In conference play, they’ll see teams like Utah, Arizona State, and Texas Tech to round out a tough schedule.

6. Iowa State Cyclones (35th nationally)

Under head coach Matt Campbell, Iowa State has had some of its best seasons as a program. Now, they’re hoping to break through and win the Big 12. To do that, though, they’re going to have to take on the sixth hardest strength of schedule in the conference.

This season, the Cyclones will be looking to address some turnover on their roster early in the season. That’s going to be tested immediately, with a Week 0 game against rival Kansas State in Dublin. They’ll return to the United States for a non-conference schedule that features rival Iowa, and that’s going to make three games before they finish the first week of September.

7. Utah Utes (38th nationally)

In their first Big 12 season, Utah ran into some issues on the offensive side of the ball and struggled more than they expected. Now, head coach Kyle Whittingham has flipped that side of the ball. The hope is they’ll be back to being one of the top teams in the country in 2025.

This is also part of a run where all the Big 12 teams involved have very similar schedules in terms of their strength. Utah, in fact, marks the first of three who are all ranked next to one another nationally by Steele. The season starts with an interesting non-conference road trip to play UCLA, which should show where the Utes are going into the season.

8. Arizona State Sun Devils (39th nationally)

The Arizona State Sun Devils caught everyone by surprise in 2024, winning the Big 12 and going to the College Football Playoff. Head coach Kenny Dillingham knows that everybody his hunting them now. That doesn’t change that the standard is to once again compete for a Big 12 Championship.

The Sun Devils will have a non-conference trip to Mississippi State, an SEC school. However, the Bulldogs are in a rebuild. In conference play, Baylor, Utah, and Iowa State highlight what should prove to be some of the toughest games.

9. Kansas State Wildcats (40th nationally)

The Kansas State Wildcats are once again going into the season with high expectations. They’ll also, according to Steele, be facing the kind of schedule where succeeding should be relatively manageable. So, it’s hard to find any excuses in 2025 for the Wildcats.

Big 12 play starts in Week 0 in Ireland against Iowa State. That’s going to make for a bit of an awkward start to the season. Even with all that travel, they won’t have a bye week until they’ve played four games, including another conference game. Luckily, it does end up being a fairly manageable conference schedule for Kansas State.

10. BYU Cougars (43rd nationally)

Off the field, BYU has run into some issues. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff found himself in legal issues and faced an honor code suspension at the school and has since transferred out. That’s left the team with a massive question mark on the roster.

On the field, BYU knows that the schedule their set to face is ranked around the middle of the Big 12 in terms of strength of schedule. The non-conference slate only has one Power Four opponent on it, Stanford, which should be a manageable game. However, there is a difficult stretch that could make or break the season where the Cougars play Utah, Iowa State, and Texas Tech.

11. Oklahoma State Cowboys (45th nationally)

It was a difficult offseason for Oklahoma State. Head coach Mike Gundy got into an apparent standoff with the school. That led to some wholesale changes, including a reworked contract and new coordinators. It also made it clear that the Cowboys weren’t playing to an expected standard.

If there’s a positive going into 2025, it’s that Oklahoma State has a schedule that Steele thinks they should be able to compete against. Still, there are some tough individual games, like a non-conference game on the road against Oregon. The Big 12 slate is a mixed bag of games, but it would be hard for the Cowboys to go 0-9 in conference play again.

12. Cincinnati Bearcats (51st nationally)

After starting the 2024 season 5-2, the Bearcats finished the season losing five straight. That meant for the second season in the Big 12 and the second under Scott Satterfield, Cincinnati missed a bowl. Now, they’re looking to get back on track in 2025.

Steele has Cincinnati’s schedule toward the easier end of the spectrum within the Big 12. A neutral site game against Nebraska to open the season will certainly be a test. Then, Baylor, Utah, and Iowa State highlight conference play. Overall, though, it should be manageable.

13. Houston Cougars (57th nationally)

The rebuild continues for Willie Fritz at Houston. There is a major need to improve on the offensive side of the ball, which starts with Conner Weigman as a transfer quarterback. Get that, and a similar performance on the defensive side of the ball from last season, and the schedule should be one they can take a step forward against.

The non-conference schedule is manageable, without a Power Four team making an appearance there. Within conference play, Baylor, Texas Tech, and Arizona State provide some of the toughest matchups they’ll see.

14. Kansas Jayhawks (59th nationally)

The Kansas Jayhawks missed out on making a bowl game last season. Now, they’re going to need to find a way to bounce back from that disappointment. Luckily, Jalon Daniels returns at quarterback and if he stays healthy there’s room to get excited.

There’s also room to get excited about this schedule if you’re Kansas. In non-conference play, there’s going to be a road trip to Missouri that could end up being very interesting. After that, they’ll get into Big 12 play. There, Kansas State and Texas Tech are going to be among the highlights.

15. UCF Knights (70th nationally)

The UCF Knights are entering a new era in Orlando. Scott Frost has returned after leaving the program following their unbeaten 2017 campaign. The Knights hope that Frost can recapture some of that magic. However, expectations are relatively low next season. Still, an easy schedule by Big 12 standards could go a long way for UCF.

In their non-conference slate, North Carolina is making the trip to Orlando highlights UCF’s games. Then, in Big 12 play, they only have two of the teams ranked in the top five of Steele’s predictions. So, while it’s a rebuild, there are wins to be found.

16. Texas Tech Red Raiders (72nd nationally)

Nobody in the Big 12 made as big a splash in the Transfer Portal as Texas Tech. The Red Raiders loaded up, and with that comes some questions about how the roster comes together. However, there’s no doubt that there’s plenty of talent in Lubbock for the following season.

The schedule should make it possible for the Red Raiders to threaten to win the Big 12. In the non-conference, they won’t see a single Power Four opponent. Then, in Big 12 play, they’ll dodge several of the top predicted teams to finish in the conference standings. Given their talent, the Red Raiders are in an excellent spot.