Postseason Preview: How SEC teams look entering final two weeks
The regular season is winding down across college baseball, with just two weeks remaining until conference tournaments get underway. As teams get closer and closer to locking up spots in the postseason, many SEC clubs are still fighting to solidify their resumes.
This past weekend, many fringe NCAA Tournament teams knocked off some of the SEC’s perceived top programs, which could seriously impact the postseason picture. It’s looking more and more likely that the SEC could send 10 or 11 teams to the postseason, which would be an impressive feat during regionals across the country.
Here is an in-depth look at how the SEC looks entering the final two weeks, and what every team needs to do to lock up a spot in the postseason.
SEC baseball teams locked into the postseason
Record: 37-10 (16-7 in SEC play)
RPI (according to NCAA.com): 4
Remaining midweek games: vs. Northwestern State, vs. McNeese
Remaining weekend series: vs. Mississippi State, at Georgia
LSU lost two out of three this past weekend at Auburn, but the Tigers are still firmly locked into a spot in the postseason, and should be one of many SEC teams to host as a top eight overall seed. While LSU’s RPI sits at No. 4 entering the final two weeks, it’s hard to imagine them falling them beyond one of the top two or three seeds in the field. With two midweeks remaining and series left against two of the SEC’s bottom teams, the Tigers are well-positioned for a strong end to the year as they try to stay as the No. 1 overall seed.
Prior to this past weekend’s results, D1Baseball tabbed LSU as the top overall seed, hosting a regional in Baton Rouge.
Record: 36-12 (17-7)
RPI: 5
Remaining midweek games: None
Remaining weekend series: vs. South Carolina, at Vanderbilt
While other top teams in the SEC struggled this past weekend, Arkansas did not. The Razorbacks lost their midweek game against Lipscomb, but responded with a three-game sweep at Mississippi State. Suddenly, Arkansas looks to be in a great position to finish as a top five overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. That case will only be made stronger if the Razorbacks finish strong over their final six games, with matchups against South Carolina and Vanderbilt remaining.
D1Baseball had Arkansas hosting the Fayeteville Regional as the No. 5 overall seed in last week’s projections.
Record: 34-13 (17-7)
RPI: 6
Remaining midweek games: at Louisville, vs. MTSU
Remaining weekend series: at Florida, vs. Arkansas
Vanderbilt surprisingly lost over the weekend against Alabama, dropping two out of three on the road. Despite that, Vanderbilt is in a good position. The Commodores hold the No. 6 RPI, with plenty of opportunities to maintain that strong position over the final two weeks. Vanderbilt’s remaining weekend schedule includes a midweek trip to Louisville, in addition to series against Florida and Arkansas.
Vanderbilt was the No. 3 overall seed in D1Baseball’s latest field, hosting the Nashville Regional.
Record: 37-12 (15-9)
RPI: 12
Remaining midweek games: None
Remaining weekend series: vs. Vanderbilt, at Kentucky
After winning the first game this past weekend against Texas A&M, Florida got blown out in the second game and dropped the third after a walkoff balk. The Gators are still locked into a spot as a regional host, but that could change depending on how the final two weekends go. Florida is likely closer to the fringe top eight territory right now, but winning series against Vanderbilt and Kentucky would lock the Gators in as a top eight seed.
Florida was the No. 6 overall seed, hosting the Gainesville Regional in D1Baseball’s field entering this past weekend.
Record: 36-11 (14-9)
RPI: 3
Remaining midweek games: vs. North Florida, vs. Charlotte
Remaining weekend series: at Arkansas, vs. Tennessee
South Carolina being swept against Kentucky this past weekend was surprising to just about everybody. The Gamecocks weren’t able to secure a single win on the weekend, although they are still almost a sure bet to host a regional this summer. Charlotte is no slouch on the midweek slate, plus two challenging weekends await the Gamecocks. South Carolina could fall out of top eight territory if they falter over the final two weeks, though they likely won’t drop too far beyond that.
South Carolina was D1Baseball’s No. 4 overall seed last week, hosting the Columbia Regional.
Record: 33-13 (14-10)
RPI: 1
Remaining midweek games: vs. Tennessee Tech
Remaining weekend series: at Tennessee, vs. Florida
Kentucky’s sweep over South Carolina couldn’t have come at a better time for the Wildcats. A series loss would have marked five straight for Kentucky, a number that would have them trending towards bubble territory. But with a much needed SEC series victory, in the fashion of a sweep, there is no doubt about Kentucky’s spot in the postseason. They are most likely to finish as a 2-seed, although a strong finish against Tennessee and Florida could get the Wildcats back into the hosting discussion, especially with the current No. 1 RPI.
D1Baseball tabbed Kentucky as the 2-seed in the Durham Regional entering this past weekend.
Record: 32-16 (12-12)
RPI: 27
Remaining midweek games: vs. Austin Peay, vs. Belmont
Remaining weekend series: vs. Kentucky, at South Carolina
Tennessee surely wanted to win this past weekend’s series against Georgia, but they should be fine regarding the NCAA Tournament. The Vols hold a top 30 RPI and have two more massive weekend opportunities against Kentucky and South Carolina. If they struggle in both series, a run in Hoover would certainly help. But at this point, it’s hard to envision a postseason field without Tennessee in it.
D1Baseball had Tennessee as the 2-seed in the Terre Haute Regional entering last week.
Record: 32-16 (11-13)
RPI: 18
Remaining midweek games: vs. Troy
Remaining weekend series: at Texas A&M, vs. Ole Miss
After firing Brad Bohannon the same day this past weekend’s series against Vanderbilt started, it would have been easy to see Alabama struggle amid the distractions. They did the opposite, though, picking up a huge SEC weekend series victory and likely locking up their spot in the postseason while doing so. Alabama currently has a top 20 RPI, with another big opportunity on Tuesday against Troy (RPI No. 32). Barring a serious fall over the final two weekends, Alabama is likely in the field.
Alabama was the 3-seed in the Morgantown Regional entering last week, per D1Baseball. Now, they’re likely back in line to become a 2-seed.
SEC teams on the NCAA Tournament bubble
Record: 27-19-1 (11-13)
RPI: 28
Remaining midweek games: at Samford, vs. Jacksonville State
Remaining weekend series: at Ole Miss, vs. Missouri
Auburn was the surprise of the weekend, taking two out of three against top-ranked LSU. The series was a big boost to Auburn’s postseason resume, as they now sit with a top 30 RPI and likely on the right side of the bubble. The Tigers have a road midweek game against a potential tournament team in Samford this week, and then have two weekends left against two of the weaker teams in the SEC. If the Tigers do what they should over the final two weeks, they will surely be in the field. But they don’t have a ton of room for error.
Auburn was the 3-seed in the Coral Gables Regional in D1Baseball’s latest field.
Record: 28-20 (11-13)
RPI: 36
Remaining midweek games: vs. UT Rio Grande
Remaining weekend series: vs. Alabama, at Mississippi State
Texas A&M continues to be one of the most unique teams this season across college baseball, but the Aggies picked up an important series win over Florida to strengthen their resume. The bubble is pretty tight right now, and Texas A&M’s No. 36 RPI should be enough to get them in. But if the Aggies struggle against Alabama or Mississippi State in the final two weekends, they are going to need some help to get in.
If the season ended today, Texas A&M is probably in. They were the 3-seed in the Stanford Regional entering last week, per D1Baseball.
Record: 27-21 (10-14)
RPI: 29
Remaining midweek games: vs. SC Upstate, vs. Western Carolina
Remaining weekend series: at Missouri, vs. LSU
Georgia continues to hang around the NCAA Tournament bubble, and defeating Tennessee was great for the Bulldogs. An RPI in the low 20s would be one that would be hard to leave out, but Georgia still sits at just 10-14 in the SEC and six games over .500 overall. If the Bulldogs beat Missouri this weekend, and then win at least one against LSU in the final weekend, their postseason hopes will likely depend on how things go in the SEC Tournament.
Georgia is truly right on the line of the bubble, as they were D1Baseball’s last team in the field last week as the 3-seed in the Winston-Salem Regional.
SEC teams likely on the outside of the postseason picture
Record: 27-20 (7-17)
RPI: 47
Remaining midweek games: vs. Indiana State
Remaining weekend series: vs. Georgia, at Auburn
Missouri won its series against Ole Miss this past weekend, but that didn’t do much to strengthen the Tigers’ chances at making it into the field. Holding an RPI of No. 47 isn’t enough to get them in, and it’s tough to envision them being able to do enough to squeak in. Beating Indiana State (RPI No. 9) would help, as would winning at the minimum five out of six against Georgia and Auburn. But the field is extremely unlikely to include Missouri when it’s all said and done.
D1Baseball did not include Missouri in their latest field.
Record: 24-23 (6-18)
RPI: 57
Remaining midweek games: vs. Memphis, vs. North Alabama
Remaining weekend series: at LSU, vs. Texas A&M
Mississippi State’s struggles continued last week, and the are essentially completely out of the postseason picture. The Bulldogs have eight games left, but even barring a strong finish, they are very unlikely to make it into the NCAA Tournament. Mississippi State’s biggest concern right now is making the SEC Tournament, as they would not be in that if the season ended right now.
The Bulldogs unsurprisingly missed the cut in D1Baseball’s latest projections.
Record: 25-23 (6-18)
RPI: 62
Remaining midweek games: vs. Austin Peay
Remaining weekend series: vs. Auburn, at Alabama
Like Mississippi State, Ole Miss would miss the SEC Tournament as of today and the Rebels don’t have a path to making the NCAA Tournament. The defending national champions can’t really make up any ground, holding an RPI outside of the top 60 and barely holding onto an overall record above .500.
Ole Miss was left out of D1Baseball’s latest field.