Postseason Preview: What the SEC Tournament means for every team
Heading into conference tournament week across college baseball, there are ten SEC teams that feel safe for the NCAA Tournament and as many as 11 fighting for a spot. Up to nine teams from the loaded conference are potentially in play as a regional host.
Clearly, there is a lot at stake in Hoover this week as SEC teams battle for the tournament crown, which gives them the automatic bid from the conference to the NCAA Tournament.
Things can change quickly, as we’ve seen throughout the last month. Some teams (like South Carolina) were viewed as locks for regional hosts at one point but now find themselves in need of a strong showing in Hoover to ensure that. Others, like Alabama and Auburn, have done the opposite, going from borderline bubble tournament teams to clubs with very, very strong cases to host a regional.
Nine teams won’t host from the SEC. But what happens in the SEC baseball tournament will ultimately play the final role in determining where these teams fall in the postseason.
And that’s not even mentioning what could happen if a team goes on a surprise run to steal the automatic bid. Ole Miss and Mississippi State are the only two teams that we know will not do that, as they did not qualify for the SEC Tournament as the conference’s bottom two teams.
The action gets underway on Tuesday. Here is the full schedule for the SEC Tournament, which runs through the championship game on Sunday afternoon.
SEC teams safely in the NCAA baseball tournament
Record: 39-15 (20-10)
RPI: 3
Arkansas needed to win one more game against Vanderbilt this past weekend to lock up the SEC regular season championship, but the Razorbacks instead won just once and earned a share of the title. Regardless, Arkansas sits in great shape going into the SEC baseball tournament. The Razorbacks, with 20 SEC wins and a top three RPI, are an essential top eight seed lock.
Arkansas will be in action on Wednesday, facing the winner of Texas A&M vs. Tennessee.
Record: 42-13 (20-10)
RPI: 5
Like Arkansas, Florida sits in great shape entering Hoover. The Gators won a big series against Kentucky this past weekend to earn a share of the regular season SEC title. With 20 conference wins, paired with a top five RPI, Florida should be essentially locked into a top eight overall seed. There isn’t a real path to Florida falling further than No. 8 overall.
Florida, the top seed in the SEC Tournament, will play on Wednesday against the winner of Alabama vs. Kentucky.
Record: 42-13 (19-10)
RPI: 4
LSU ended the regular season by winning two out of three against Georgia on the road, in a series that could have been disastrous for the Tigers. If the lost to Georgia, LSU could have fallen out of top eight range. But now, it feels as if LSU is a sure bet to be one of the top eight overall seeds when the full field is announced. Even if they struggle in Hoover, the Tigers aren’t likely to fall very far.
LSU is the No. 3 seed in the SEC Tournament. They play on Wednesday against the winner of South Carolina vs. Georgia.
Record: 37-17 (19-11)
RPI: 8
Heading into the regular season’s final week, Vanderbilt was trending towards a low-end host rather than a top eight seed. But the Commodores, hosting No. 2 Arkansas, took care of business with a series victory. That is huge for Vanderbilt, as there was a path to them falling out of the hosting picture with a series loss due to the high volume of teams in the conversation. Now, they seem to be a safe bet to host as a top eight seed, though a quick exit in Hoover could drop them out of the top eight.
Vanderbilt locked up the SEC’s No. 4 seed. They play on Wednesday, facing the winner of Missouri vs. Auburn.
Record: 38-17 (16-13)
RPI: 6
South Carolina is trending in the wrong direction. The Gamecocks lost another series this past weekend, falling at home to Tennessee. Once a sure top five overall seed, South Carolina is now fighting to even secure a top 16 seed to host a regional. If the Gamecocks win a couple of games in the SEC Tournament, their 16+ SEC wins plus a strong, top ten RPI would lock them in. But if they continue to struggle, their postseason hopes could wind up being as a 2-seed.
South Carolina, the SEC’s No. 6 seed, plays in the first game of the SEC baseball tournament on Tuesday against Georgia.
Record: 36-17 (16-14)
RPI: 2
Kentucky struggled a bit down the stretch, but still played itself into the top eight conversation in recent weeks. The Wildcats are hurt by losing to Florida this past weekend, but 16 SEC wins and an RPI of No. 2 has them in a great position to host. Kentucky can’t be guaranteed to host, and if they lose early in the SEC Tournament, they could end up as a 2-seed.
That is especially true considering that Kentucky plays Alabama, another SEC team vying for a top 16 seed, in the opening round on Tuesday. That game will be an elimination game before the tournament transitions to double elimination on Wednesday.
Record: 38-17 (16-14)
RPI: 12
Alabama has played its best baseball at the right time, and the Crimson Tide are surely locked into the postseason. At this point, they might have a very strong chance at hosting a regional. With 16 SEC wins, a top 12 RPI and the opportunity to improve both of those numbers, it would be hard to deny that team an opportunity to host. But with so many teams from the SEC fighting for a few spots, it might happen. Regardless, if Alabama takes care of business and goes on a run, they will likely be hosting a regional next weekend.
Alabama faces off against Kentucky in the opening round of the SEC baseball tournament on Tuesday. The winner moves on to face top-seeded Florida.
Record: 33-19-1 (17-13)
RPI: 15
Like Alabama, Auburn is playing very good baseball at the perfect time. The Tigers have also played their way into strong hosting contention, and their resume is tough to look away from. With 17 SEC wins and a top 15 RPI, Auburn would probably be a host if the season ended today. The Tigers probably need to win a couple of SEC Tournament games to make sure, but they are in a great position.
Auburn faces Missouri on Tuesday, with the winner moving on to take on Vanderbilt on Wednesday.
Record: 38-18 (16-14)
RPI: 16
Tennessee is the ninth SEC team mentioned here, and like the eight that preceded them, they have a shot at playing their way into hosting a regional. The Vols have had an up-and-down season due to some struggles on the road at times. But they have won 16 games in the conference and hold the No. 16 RPI. It feels more likely that Tennessee winds up as a 2-seed when it’s all said and done, but like Alabama and Auburn, they are right there.
Tennessee plays Texas A&M on Tuesday, with the winner facing Arkansas on Tuesday.
Teams fighting to stay alive
Record: 32-23 (14-16)
RPI: 34
Texas A&M has been hanging around on the bubble for seemingly all of conference play. The Aggies are firmly on the bubble right now, and can’t afford to go one-and-done in the SEC baseball tournament. If they do, their NCAA Tournament hopes likely come to an end. But if the Aggies can find their footing and win a couple of games, they are going to be right there in the mix as one of the final at-large teams.
Texas A&M plays Tennessee on Tuesday in an elimination game. The winner moves on to face Arkansas on Wednesday.
Record: 29-26 (11-19)
RPI: 37
At this point of the year, Georgia is probably too far off of the bubble to sneak into the field. The Bulldogs have a solid top 40 RPI, but their 11-19 SEC record will hold them back. If Georgia goes on a run and plays into the deeper stages in Hoover, they could find themselves back on the bubble. But without a deep run, and likely a SEC Tournament championship, Georgia’s hopes are probably done.
The Bulldogs play South Carolina on Tuesday morning to kick off the SEC baseball tournament.
Record: 30-23 (10-20)
RPI: 41
Missouri probably doesn’t have a path to making the NCAA Tournament outside of winning the SEC Tournament. The Tigers went just 10-20 in conference play, a record that isn’t good enough no matter how good the league is. With that, paired with an RPI currently sitting outside of the top 40, Missouri’s at-large chances are done.
Missouri needs to win out, and that begins on Tuesday night against Auburn.