Postseason Preview: Where every SEC team stands entering final week

On3 imageby:Jonathan Wagner05/16/23

Jonathan Wagner

The regular season is almost over, meaning teams have very few remaining opportunities to put a stamp on their postseason hopes. There are plenty of NCAA postseason locks out of the SEC, but many teams are still firmly on the tournament bubble and fighting to keep their seasons alive.

Some big-time series are coming up this weekend, which is the last of the regular season. Series are scheduled to begin on Thursday and run through Saturday this week, in anticipation of next week’s conference tournament.

64 teams will make the NCAA Tournament across college baseball. 31 teams will win automatic bids to the postseason through winning their respective conference tournaments. The remaining 33 bids will be handed out on an at-large basis to other teams.

The postseason will consist of 16 regionals, which are four-team pods in a double elimination format. One team will emerge from each regional, setting up eight super regional matchups. Super regionals are a best-of-three series, with the winner of each advancing to Omaha to play in the College World Series.

Here is how every team in the SEC stands in the postseason race entering the final week of the regular season.

Likely NCAA postseason locks from the SEC

Arkansas

Record: 38-13 (19-8 in SEC games)

RPI (entering Tuesday, according to D1Baseball): No. 4

Remaining midweek games: None

Remaining weekend series: at Vanderbilt

Arkansas has been playing exceptional baseball over the last three weeks, and the Razorbacks are locked into a spot as a regional host. With three consecutive SEC series victories, including this past weekend against South Carolina, Arkansas heads into this weekend’s series with the opportunity to earn a top three overall seed.

At this point, it would be tough to imagine Arkansas falling outside of the top eight overall seeds, setting the Razorbacks up to host a super regional should they advance to that stage. D1Baseball had Arkansas as the No. 4 overall seed entering last weekend, and that should only improve this week.

LSU

Record: 39-12 (17-9)

RPI: No. 5

Remaining midweek games: vs. McNeese

Remaining weekend series: at Georgia

LSU has dropped two consecutive weekends, and the Tigers have some serious concerns entering the end of the regular season. Despite that, LSU is a sure bet to be a top eight overall seed when the postseason begins. The Tigers are scheduled to face McNeese on Tuesday before hitting the road to take on Georgia to end the regular season against a Bulldogs team fighting to stay alive.

LSU is still in the conversation to become a top two overall seed, and bouncing back against Georgia, paired with a solid showing in Hoover for the SEC Tournament, would ensure that. LSU was the No. 2 overall seed entering last week in D1Baseball’s projected field.

Florida

Record: 40-12 (18-9)

RPI: No. 6

Remaining midweek games: None

Remaining weekend series: at Kentucky

Florida is almost surely locked into a spot as a regional host, although where exactly they fall is undetermined. The Gators could finish as high as a top five overall seed, which is likely where they’d be if the season ended today. But this weekend’s series against Kentucky is very important, and Florida likely moves safely into top five range with a series victory.

Prior to this past weekend’s impressive series against Vanderbilt, Florida was D1Baseball’s No. 9 overall seed, just barely missing out on the top eight.

Vanderbilt

Record: 35-15 (17-9)

RPI: No. 7

Remaining midweek games: vs. MTSU

Remaining weekend series: vs. Arkansas

Getting swept at Florida this past weekend was disappointing for Vanderbilt, marking two straight series losses for the Commodores. They have also lost three out of their last four weekends. Entering the final week of the regular season, Vanderbilt is locked into the postseason as one of many SEC teams expected to host. But the Commodores could finish as high as top five overall down to outside of the top eight, making this weekend’s series against a red-hot Arkansas team very important.

D1Baseball had Vanderbilt as the No. 3 overall seed entering last weekend.

South Carolina

Record: 37-14 (15-11)

RPI: No. 3

Remaining midweek games: vs. Charlotte

Remaining weekend series: vs. Tennessee

South Carolina has struggled as of late, and the Gamecocks continue to fall in the postseason field. While they are locked into a postseason spot and are likely to host, how South Carolina finishes the regular season and then the SEC Tournament will determine where they land. If South Carolina wins the series this weekend against Tennessee, and beats Charlotte on Tuesday, they are right back into top eight range. But a series loss would mark four straight to end the regular season and could have them as a low-end host.

South Carolina still sits in a good position with the No. 3 RPI, but they were outside of the top eight picture in D1Baseball’s latest field, sitting at No. 10.

Tennessee

Record: 35-17 (14-13)

RPI: No. 23

Remaining midweek games: vs. Belmont

Remaining weekend series: at South Carolina

Tennessee has had its struggles on the road this season, but at home, the Vols are hard to beat. After hosting Belmont to wrap up their midweek slate, the Vols will head to South Carolina to end the regular season. That won’t be an easy series, but it’s very important. For Tennessee, they could find themselves in the hosting conversation with a series win. A strong showing in Hoover would likely need to follow, but Tennessee would be hard to ignore if they were able to knock off the Gamecocks.

Tennessee is likely a 2-seed at this point, although they could easily rise higher. That’s where they fell in D1Baseball’s latest field, as the 2-seed in the Conway Regional.

Alabama

Record: 35-17 (13-14)

RPI: No. 10

Remaining midweek games: None

Remaining weekend series: vs. Ole Miss

With two straight series victories and an RPI sitting now inside the top ten, Alabama is in the hosting discussion. The Crimson Tide have what should be a smooth series coming up against Ole Miss this weekend. Take care of business there and pick up a sweep to reach 16 SEC wins, and Alabama could definitely be in the mix to become a top 16 seed depending on how they fare in the SEC Tournament.

Alabama was the 2-seed in the Stanford Regional entering this past weekend.

Kentucky

Record: 35-15 (15-12)

RPI: No. 1

Remaining midweek games: None

Remaining weekend series: vs. Florida

Sweeping South Carolina last weekend was huge for Kentucky, but they didn’t see the same success this past week against Tennessee. In fact, the Wildcats lost the first two games of the weekend before picking up a run-rule victory to avoid the sweep on Sunday. Kentucky is an interesting team in the postseason race, as they have struggled over recent weeks in SEC play but still hold the best RPI in the nation.

The Wildcats’ high RPI and 15 SEC wins have them in the hosting mix. They could finish as a 2-seed depending on how they finish the regular season, making this weekend’s matchup with Florida very, very important.

Auburn

Record: 30-19-1 (14-13)

RPI: No. 20

Remaining midweek games: None

Remaining weekend series: vs. Missouri

Auburn is one of the hottest teams in college baseball, with four straight series victories after this past weekend’s sweep at Ole Miss. The Tigers are quietly playing themselves into the hosting picture. If Auburn can sweep Missouri this weekend and go on a run in the SEC Tournament, they will without a doubt have a hosting-caliber resume. What happens around them will also play an important role.

D1Baseball tabbed Auburn as the 3-seed in the Storrs Regional entering last week. They are now likely at worst on the 2-line.

SEC teams on the NCAA Tournament bubble

Texas A&M

Record: 30-22 (12-15)

RPI: No. 40

Remaining midweek games: None

Remaining weekend series: at Mississippi State

Texas A&M really needed to win this past weekend’s series at home against Alabama. Instead, the Aggies were outscored 23-1 on Saturday and Sunday after winning Friday’s opener. Now, with an RPI hanging around No. 40 and just 12 wins in conference play, Texas A&M might be on the wrong side of the bubble. Winning this weekend at Mississippi State is a must, and the Aggies would likely be out of the postseason picture if that happened without a deep run in the SEC Tournament.

Texas A&M was the 3-seed in the Stillwater Regional in D1Baseball’s latest field, although that came prior to the Aggies’ latest series loss.

Georgia

Record: 28-24 (10-17)

RPI: No. 35

Remaining midweek games: vs. Western Carolina

Remaining weekend series: vs. LSU

Georgia was sitting in a great spot a couple of weeks ago with an RPI in the mid 20s, but now the Bulldogs are undoubtedly on the outside looking in. If Georgia would have won this past weekend at Missouri, or at least won a game, they would be in far better position. Instead, Missouri swept Georgia and crushed the Bulldogs’ hopes.

Georgia hosts LSU this weekend, and the Tigers have struggled as of late. The opportunity is there, and a win would give the Bulldogs an RPI boost. But if Georgia doesn’t win the series, they probably just have too much ground to make up to factor into the postseason despite being the 3-seed in the Clemson Regional in D1Baseball’s latest projections.

Missouri

Record: 30-20 (10-17)

RPI: No. 37

Remaining midweek games: None

Remaining weekend series: at Auburn

Missouri making the postseason would require a near miracle given where they were in recent weeks, but a strong finish to the SEC schedule could have it in the cards. Missouri’s RPI of No. 37 has them at least in the discussion, although having just ten SEC wins is holding them back. But if the Tigers can sweep Auburn on the road this weekend to reach 13 wins in conference play, a strong showing in the SEC Tournament could potentially sneak Missouri into the field.

D1Baseball did not have Missouri in their latest field.

SEC teams out of the postseason picture

Mississippi State

Record: 36-24 (8-19)

RPI: No. 44

Remaining midweek games: None

Remaining weekend series: vs. Texas A&M

Mississippi State stunned LSU this past weekend, winning both Saturday and Sunday to win the series. The wins snapped a seven-game losing streak for the Bulldogs, but it unfortunately isn’t going to be enough. Even after beating LSU, Mississippi State’s RPI is sitting around the mid 40s. But even with a sweep against Texas A&M this weekend, Mississippi State would have just 11 wins in the SEC which wouldn’t be enough to get in.

Instead, the Bulldogs are fighting to get into the SEC Tournament. They have to sweep Texas A&M, but they’ll still need a lot of help from there to keep their season alive.

Ole Miss

Record: 25-26 (6-21)

RPI: No. 79

Remaining midweek games: None

Remaining weekend series: at Alabama

The defending national champions have officially been eliminated from the SEC Tournament, and their postseason hopes are nonexistent. Frustrations have built as Ole Miss has dealt with injuries this season, and now the Rebels are entering their final three games of the 2023 campaign. Ole Miss still wants to end on a strong note at Alabama this weekend, even if it won’t mean much in the end.