Quarterback dominoes: Upcoming commitments will shake up the board
After a rush of early commitments among quarterbacks in the 2024 class, things have slowed down significantly in recent months. Four of the top five passers in the cycle came off the board between last May and the end of the year, though Five-Star Plus+ quarterback Dylan Raiola came back on the board in December.
Since January 1, only one QB ranked among the top 15 nationally in the On3 Industry Ranking has committed, creating a lull in the recruiting calendar. The respite is now over, and the quarterback dominoes are beginning to fall. Starting Thursday, three of the country’s top uncommitted passers will come off the board as Jake Merklinger (March 30), Jadyn Davis (March 31), Michael Hawkins and Air Noland (April 8) all have locked in commitment dates for the next 10 days.
So who’s trending for those four and who is going to start making some calls to their secondary plans?
Tennessee leading for Jake Merklinger
Let’s start with the impending commitment of Jake Merklinger a little less than 24 hours away. Michigan State, North Carolina, Tennessee and Georgia made the final list, but it’s the Volunteers who are trending heavily heading into the decision.
“It came down to where I fit in the best at,” he told On3’s Chad Simmons earlier this week of the school he’ll announce for. “It felt like a home away from home. It’s a place I felt wanted, and I have a great relationship with the coaches. I enjoyed the people there, and I think this is the place that can get my game to the highest level.”
Merklinger has built rock-solid relationships with head coach Josh Heupel and quarterbacks coach Joey Halzle, and barring any last-minute shockers, he’s expected to don Tennessee orange.
“I have a great relationship with the staff, and I love their quarterback development,” he said of the Vols. “Seeing Hendon Hooker’s growth under Josh Heupel was awesome. And what else can you say about playing in the SEC in front of 100,000 fans?”
Michigan is front for Jadyn Davis
That takes Tennessee out of the equation for Jadyn Davis, who is trending to … Michigan. The Wolverines have made him their lone priority at quarterback this cycle, and he’s said that he was close to committing multiple times in the past.
He was back in Ann Arbor earlier this month, and it’s expected he will choose the Wolverines over Clemson, North Carolina, Ohio State and Tennessee.
“My whole family loves Michigan,” he told Simmons in previewing his announcement. “They’ve all been up there. It’s a place where I’ve seen a game, a summertime day and then, the coldest of the cold with my recent visit there. I feel like I pretty much know the ins and outs of Michigan. I have a great relationship with J.J. McCarthy. He’s someone that I consider a brother for life … Coach (Jim) Harbaugh is a guy that’s never lied to me. He’s always kept it 100% real with me and I’m big on loyalty and trust. He’s a guy I can trust. How they’ve treated me and my family has been second to none. They’ve always made me feel like a top priority.”
What that means for other top quarterbacks
With both the Vols and Wolverines out of the mix, things are going to get interesting as we head into April. Oklahoma is considered the heavy favorite for the aforementioned Michael Hawkins, who told On3’s Sam Spiegelman he was down to the Sooners and TCU.
Multiple picks have been placed in OU’s favor in the On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine (RPM).
That leaves Noland as the lone quarterback with a scheduled commitment date. Texas A&M, Alabama, Arkansas, Clemson, Miami, Oregon, and Ohio State each made his top seven schools list earlier this month, but as of now, Clemson, Texas A&M and Miami are the three teams pushing hardest to land him.
The Buckeyes have shown significant interest, but have to yet to offer him with just 10 days until he commits. That could change with a visit to Columbus this weekend, but right now the buzz is around Clemson and Miami being the top two contenders.
“I think all these schools have done a great job recruiting me and being genuine when I came to their place and they welcomed me with open arms,” he said earlier this week. “That’s why I wanted to narrow things down and get myself ready and prepared for spring ball. These are the schools I wanted to narrow down to and I feel very comfortable doing that.”
Where Noland ultimately commits will cause ripples effects across the country. Miami, Clemson, Oregon and Ohio State have struck out on other top targets and will certainly turn their attention elsewhere if their name isn’t called.
And what about Dylan Raiola?
The biggest name on the board is still there — for now. Raiola, the nation’s No. 1 overall prospect in the On3 Industry Ranking, is fresh off visits to Georgia Tech, Georgia, Nebraska and USC in the past few months. The latter three are considered to be the biggest threats to land him, with his most recent visit being at Nebraska last weekend.
USC was thought to have pulled ahead in late January, which is reflected by the On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine. But according to the latest intel from Simmons, Georgia and Nebraska are very much in the race, with the Bulldogs impressing Raiola and his family on their visit earlier in the month.
He’s not expected to take any visits in the month of April and currently has one official visit date locked in with Georgia for June. His decision is expected to come before his senior season begins and will have wide-ranging impacts on the quarterbacks in this class.
Both the Trojans and Huskers have gone all-in on Raiola, while Georgia already has a commitment from four-star Ryan Puglisi. Depending on who lands the Five-Star Plus+ passer, the others could take a second look at the likes of Elijah Brown, Michael Van Buren or Jayden Bradford. Or they may choose to forgo signing a passer in this class entirely.
Regardless, things are about to get very interesting over the next few weeks and months.