Stories that will dominate recruiting leading up to Signing Day

On3 imageby:Jeremy Crabtree•12/13/21•

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We’re just three days from the beginning of the early signing period. There will be some top recruits, largely because of the uncertainty with coaching changes, who will wait things out. But around 90% of recruits will treat Dec. 15 as Signing Day. Here are the top storylines heading into Signing Day.

What happens with Walter?

Five-Star Plus+ defensive lineman Walter Nolen is the crown jewel of the Texas A&M recruiting class.

He’s the second-ranked player in the On3 Consensus, and he sent recruiting shockwaves throughout the college football world with his commitment to the Aggies. Even with the pledge, Texas A&M has had to put in extra work to fend off Tennessee.

As of Sunday evening, all appears on track for him to still sign with the Aggies on Wednesday. But even his father indicated recently that things can change.

“Anything can still happen,” Walter Nolen Sr. told On3’s Chad Simmons last week. “I would say he is pretty strong to Texas A&M, but he is a kid. We see different recruits in football and basketball commit and decommit all the time. It happens. One day he loves one school, then he changes his mind.”

While A&M has to feel good about where they’re at heading into the dead period, this will be one the Aggies will sweat out until the letter of intent comes through.

What does Domani do?

Five-Star Plus+ cornerback Domani Jackson narrowed his list to two schools — Alabama and USC — two weeks ago. He’s now doing his final due diligence before announcing a decision.

Some of that research included a second weekend in a row on the USC campus getting wined and dined by new Trojans’ coach Lincoln Riley.

Can Riley swoop in to save the day for USC? Or will Nick Saban do what he always does by sealing the deal?

You have to think it’s looking awfully good for the Trojans.

After six new predictions in the last week, the On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine is now trending heavily in USC’s favor. The RPM gives the Trojans a 78.1% chance of landing Domani Jackson. Alabama has a 20.5% chance of landing him, according to the RPM.

If Riley can sign Domani Jackson, it would send a major signal to everybody that recruits in California that you can no longer walk into SoCal and lure away the best talent. If he can’t, well, then it might be a continued case of status quo — which is not what USC fans demand after the flashy hire.

Can A&M sign best defensive class ever?

Texas A&M’s defensive class is special, and the overall class already ranks among the best in modern recruiting history. Currently, the Aggies’ class is made up of 95% blue-chip prospects and features these defenders ranked in the top 10 of their position:

But what’s scary is the potential for A&M to close and cement its status as either the No. 1 or No. 2 class during the Internet era of recruiting. On the defensive side here are just a few of the names that A&M is leading heavily for, according to the On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine, and the likelihood they land in College Station:

But there are other names that A&M is right in the thick of things with – like five-star defensive lineman Anthony Lucas and four-star EDGE Jihaad Campbell – that could push this defensive class even higher.

When combined with the offensive targets still out there like five-star offensive tackle Kiyaunta Goodwin and four-star interior offensive lineman Kam Dewberry, it’s a unique opportunity for the recruiting stars to align and A&M to sign one of the best ever.

At this point, only four schools have more than one five-star player committed in the 2022 class (Texas A&M, Georgia, Alabama and Ohio State). And realistically only Alabama has enough left on the board to potentially bypass the Aggies in the class rankings. But a lot would have to go right for the Crimson Tide.

“This is going to be a class they talk about for decades in Aggieland,” On3 National Analyst Gerry Hamilton said.

Can Oregon salvage what’s on board

Make no mistake, Dan Lanning’s hire at Oregon is expected to be a win long term on the recruiting trail. He’s such a well-respected, well-liked, and savvy recruiter that Oregon can still be a factor in the Pac-12 recruiting wars.

But what hurts the Ducks is the timing.

When his hire was announced just five days before the start of the early signing period, Lanning had no ability to have an official visit weekend.

Lanning’s plan of attack has been to work the phones hard to convince committed players to stay true to their word and sign with the Ducks on Wednesday. It’s a tough ask, especially since he’s never met many of these recruits and their families in person. But if he can do it, Oregon has a chance to save the 2022 recruiting effort.

The Ducks currently have the No. 15 class in the country with 10 players committed. If they can get a good majority of those to sign it should be a monster headline on Wednesday.

Will LSU, Miami rally to sign top-10 classes?

Coaching changes have brought a shot of energy on the recruiting trail at both LSU and Miami. Now the question is whether or not the new coaching staffs can close strong enough to push the Tigers and the Canes into contention for top 10 classes.

It might be a little bit easy to pull off at LSU. The Tigers are still heavily recruiting some top shelf local players that could easily see them shoot up the charts if things go well.

The Tigers are trending with blue-chippers like four-star DL Quency Wiggins, four-star ATH Kendrick Law, four-star EDGE D.J. Wesolak, four-star CB Austin Ausberry, four-star S Jordan Allen and three-star Landon Ibieta. There are others on the list that could jump on board – like four-star RB Le’veon Moss, who is committed to A&M.

There just seems like a long list of names that could end up making Brian Kelly’s first signing day an indication of what he could do when he has a full calendar year to work with in Baton Rouge.

Mario Cristobal doesn’t have as many blue-chippers on his list to secure before Wednesday, but there’s a chance he could really close well.

Keep an eye on four-star WR Kevin Coleman and four-star DL Nyjalik Kelly. Getting Alabama four-star TE commit Jaleel Skinner on campus for an official visit this past weekend raised some eyebrows. So, did four-star EDGE Cyrus Moss’ visit.

Cristobal is such a talented recruiter, he’s going to land quite a few from that list and probably find some surprises here over the next 72 hours. Miami will without a doubt be a factor in the future.

But if you’re looking for more of a sure bet between LSU and Miami to make the top 10 on Wednesday, go with the Bayou Bengals.

Will Marvin Jones Jr. chart his own path?

Marvin Jones Jr., On3’s No. 1 recruit, has so many family ties to Florida State. Jones’ father, Marvin Sr., was a star linebacker for Florida State from 1990-92 before becoming a first-round NFL draft choice. His uncle, Fred Jones, played linebacker at FSU from 1983-86.

The Seminoles have always been a constant in his recruitment. And many over the past two years have assumed he’d end up in Tallahassee.

But he’s also talked about wanting to do his own thing and sign with a school that would allow him to make his own name.

Well, now here we are.

We’re less than three days away from Signing Day. Jones has to finally decide between following in the family’s footsteps or going to Alabama, Georgia, or even USC.

The On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine believes he’s heading to Alabama, as the Crimson Tide is projected to win the commitment 70.7% of the time.

Now, wait to see what path MJJ decides to follow.

Signing day surprises

It’s hard to truly predict what surprises are in store. But know they’re coming. History tells us there’s another Alex Collins or Cyrus Kouandjio recruiting saga set to unfold that we don’t see coming.

“You don’t sleep the night before,” former Colorado and Northwestern coach Gary Barnett said. “It’s the ones that don’t come through that makes signing day one of the most difficult days ever to be a football coach. You just have to prepare yourself to know that anything that could go wrong often does.”