Tennessee Volunteers: Post-spring stock report
With spring football in the rear view mirror, it’s time to fully embrace the Head Ball Coach’s “talkin’ season.” The transfer portal carousel has slowed, so while rosters aren’t totally finalized just yet, we at least have a sense of strong foundation for each SEC program.
So let’s take a stock report for every team in the conference, examining their offense, defense and overall outlook heading into the 2022 season.
Today we look at the Tennessee Volunteers.
TENNESSEE OFFENSE — STOCK UP
After several years of trotting out a boringly bland offense, the Vols were cooking with gas in Year 1 under Josh Heupel. They set multiple school records and were legitimately fun to watch, with quarterback Hendon Hooker pulling the strings as a blistering pace and Cedric Tillman emerging out of nowhere to becoming one of the better receivers in the SEC.
There remains some questions as to whether Heupel’s tempo scheme can function at peak efficiency going up against defenses chalked with superior athletes (see: Georgia, Alabama, maybe LSU), but at minimum, his simple yet effective hybrid ‘Run ’N Shoot’ offense has raised the floor on Rocky Top. Empty calories are still calories, so if the Vols can consistently eat like this on offense they’ll avoid ever returning to the bottom of the SEC East.
Tennessee averaged 39 points per game in 2021, and with Hooker, Tillman, tailback Jabari Small and a veteran offensive line all returning, the nucleus is there for the unit to be even better in its second season within the system.
It’s hard to predict Hooker besting his 31:3 touchdown to interception ratio, but his completion percentage could land north of 70% in 2022 if he improves his deep ball accuracy. As good as Hooker was last season, there were still lots of misfires on open shot plays. But if he’s just as good as last season and the Vols win a couple more games? Hooker could sneak his way into darkhorse Heisman Trophy consideration.
Sophomore tailback Jaylen Wright should push for more carries, and a big spring, there’s real optimism that wideout Jalin Hyatt is set for a breakout year. Velus Jones and JaVonta Payton (combined 80 catches and 13 touchdowns) are gone, but Heupel did land former USC 5-star prospect Bru McCoy from the transfer portal and freshmen speedsters Chas Nimrod and Cameron Miller have generated some offseason buzz. The receiver room could also see a boost if a returnee like Ramel Keyton or Jimmy Calloway make a leap.
The Vols have plenty of continuity along their offensive line, with four of five starters back. However, there’s a gapping hole at right tackle where walk-on Dayne Davis is the current favorite to win the job over Florida transfer Gerald Mincey, among others. Tennessee’s offensive line was a solid interior run-blocking group, but it has to be better at protecting the passer in 2022. Hooker holds onto the ball too long at times, but that doesn’t totally account for a whopping 44 sacks allowed — most in the SEC last season.
TENNESSEE DEFENSE — STOCK DOWN
While the Vols’ offense was full of fireworks last season, Tennessee’s opponents lit up the scoreboard almost as quickly.
Thanks to a zillion tackles for loss (102, second in the SEC behind only Alabama) UT wasn’t awful on a yards per play allowed basis — 5.43, 50th nationally. However, situationally, Tim Banks’ unit was downright abominable.
The Tennessee Volunteers couldn’t get off the field on third down (101st nationally), were among the worst red zone defenses in the country (121st nationally) and were constantly bombed through the air (109th nationally in passing explosive plays allowed).
Heupel’s all-gas, no breaks offense does little to help his defense (UT ranked last nationally in time of possession in 2021), but the Vols are battling a talent deficiency on that side of the ball, too.
UT’s secondary was a M.A.S.H. unit this spring and its best player from 2021 went in the second round of the NFL Draft. Veteran safeties Jaylen McCollough and Trevon Flowers are back but Tennessee is banking on multiple unknowns becoming more than just names on a roster (see: Brandon Turnage, Kamal Hadden, Christian Charles or Desmond Williams). The Vols also added former in-state recruits Wesley Walker (via Georgia Tech) and Andre Turrentine from Ohio State, hoping one or both of the transfers can provide the secondary with some sort of boost.
The Vols’ defensive line must also replace their most important piece from 2021: The ever-steady Matthew Butler. The good news is Heupel was able to convince Tyler Baron to return to the team after he dipped is toes in the portal. Tennessee really needs Baron, Bryon Young (who I could see push for 8+ sacks in 2022) and Roman Harrison to offer consistent pressure or otherwise the secondary is going to get routinely sliced this fall.
2022 OVERALL OUTLOOK — STOCK UP
Although Tennessee’s defensive concerns remain real, the Vols’ offensive upside is undeniable and gives them a chance in every game this fall.
Heupel’s Rocky Top Revival started to take shape in 2021 and could full blossom in Year 2. Tennessee returns 74% of its offensive production and one of the league’s best quarterbacks, giving the Vols a leg-up on Florida and South Carolina for the top-half of the SEC East.
Beat Kentucky again, which UT has been a recent thorn for the Wildcats, and the Vols could finish second in the division.
For the Vols to take the next step, they must clean up around the margins, though. They’re still operating with little room for error, so all the penalties (11th in the conference) and poor fourth-down decisions/execution (13th in SEC) must be cleaned up.
Tennessee hasn’t won 10 games in 15 years. Reaching double-digit victories may be a stretch with a schedule that includes road games at Pittsburgh, LSU and Georgia, but if the Vols can win at home against Florida at the end of September, they’ll snap a key losing streak (five straight) and enter a showdown with Alabama full of momentum and hype.