Where things stand with the top 2024 quarterback recruits

The 2023 cycle hasn’t fully run its course yet — there are still a select few uncommitted and unsigned top recruits still out there. But for coaching staffs across the country, much of their recruiting focus is now on 2024, with junior days beginning on campus this coming weekend. And no position gets an earlier jump on the process than quarterbacks, with a number of top 2024 quarterback recruits already announcing their commitment.

With the help of the On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine (RPM), we’re breaking down where things stand with the country’s top 10 passers as we kick off the new year.

Five-Star Plus+ QB Dylan Raiola
School: Chandler (Ariz.)
On3 Consensus Ranking: No. 1
On3 RPM: Ohio State 48.2%, Nebraska 37.1%, USC 12.1%

The Skinny: Raiola took the country by surprise last month when he announced his decommitment from Ohio State, just six months after he had pledged to the Buckeyes. According to On3’s Chad Simmons, Georgia, USC and Oregon are three schools to watch, and both TCU, where his sister attends college, and Nebraska, his dad’s alma mater, are dark horses in this race. He is expected to begin taking visits over the next few months, but doesn’t want to rush into a decision like he did with Ohio State.

4-star QB Jadyn Davis
School: Charlotte (N.C.) Providence Day School
On3 Consensus Ranking: No. 17
On3 RPM: Michigan 88.4%, Tennessee 3.0%, Clemson 2.1%

The Skinny: Davis has been one of the top QBs in this class dating all the way back to his middle school days, and his recruitment has mirrored that. Over the past few months, Michigan has jumped into the driver’s seat, including hosting him twice this fall on campus for games. The elephant in the room here is Jim Harbaugh‘s status as the Wolverines’ head coach. He is reportedly expected to interview with the Denver Broncos, and should he leave Ann Arbor, programs like Tennessee and Clemson could pounce on the nation’s No. 2 passer.

4-star QB DJ Lagway
School: Willis (Texas)
On3 Consensus Ranking: No. 21
Committed to Florida

The Skinny: Lagway had offers from across the country, and ultimately chose Florida over USC, Texas A&M and a handful of others last month. He’s been an active recruiter for Billy Napier since then.

4-star QB Julian Sayin
School: Carlsbad (Calif.)
On3 Consensus Ranking: No. 22
Committed to Alabama

The Skinny: It was an all-SEC battle for Sayin, who ultimately chose Alabama over LSU at the beginning of November. He gives Nick Saban an elite passer to build around in what’s expected to be another elite class in 2024 for the Crimson Tide.

4-star QB CJ Carr
School: Saline (Mich.)
On3 Consensus Ranking: No. 33
Committed to Notre Dame

The Skinny: The grandson of legendary Michigan coach Lloyd Carr, CJ spurned the Wolverines for rival Notre Dame back in June. Like Lagway with Florida, he has been an active recruiter for Marcus Freeman and Co., looking to bring in a high-level class to play around him.

4-star QB Elijah Brown
School: Santa Ana (Calif.) Mater Dei
On3 Consensus Ranking: No. 45
On3 RPM: Oregon 47.1%, USC 27.9%, Penn State 12.5%

The Skinny: Brown hasn’t rushed through the recruiting process at all, only taking a handful of known visits to USC, Oregon and Penn State. A big part of that is Mater Dei’s national schedule, so Brown is expected to take more visits this spring.

4-star QB Michael Van Buren
School: Baltimore (Md.) St. Frances Academy
On3 Consensus Ranking: No. 67
On3 RPM: Penn State 28.6%, Maryland 8.9%, Rutgers 7.6%, seven tied at 6.4%

The Skinny: Van Buren is another passer playing a national schedule for prep powerhouse St. Frances Academy, and thus didn’t make many game day visits this fall. Penn State has made him their top priority at the position in this cycle, but hometown Maryland, as well as Oregon, are some of other programs lurking.

4-star QB Jake Merlinger
School: Savannah (Ga.) Calvary Day School
On3 Consensus Ranking: No. 97
On3 RPM: Tennessee 45.3%, Florida 20.1%, Michigan State 17.2%, Auburn 7.3%

The Skinny: The 6-foot-2, 195-pound Merklinger was one of Florida’s top targets at the position before the Gators landed DJ Lagway. Now that the dust has settled, Tennessee could be a prime contender for the Savannah (Ga.) passer. The Vols hosted him twice this fall. But Michigan State is another team he’s high on, and Clemson could ratchet things up if it loses out on Jadyn Davis.

4-star QB Jayden Bradford
School: Chapin (S.C.) IMG Academy
On3 Consensus Ranking: No. 99
On3 RPM:

The Skinny: Bradford named his top four schools this fall, a list that included Louisville, NC State, Penn State and South Carolina. The home-state Gamecocks currently lead in the RPM, but do already have a commitment from four-star Dante Reno. Whether that affects things remains to be seen, but Bradford told On3’s Chad Simmons that he could commit early in the new year. Where he visits in January could be telling.

4-star QB Colin Hurley
School: Jacksonville (Fla.) Trinity Christian Academy
On3 Consensus Ranking: No. 122
Committed to LSU

The Skinny: Soon after LSU missed out on Julian Sayin, Hurley — who was previously in the Class of 2025 — became their No. 1 target. With his reclassification to 2024, he’ll now be a a centerpiece for Brian Kelly and Co. as they look to lock down an elite class both in Louisiana and nationally.