Upset Alert: Which college football teams could be in danger of falling in Week 12

The deeper in November we go, the more games begin to matter. Whether or not they all count the same, wins and losses this time of year somehow find a way to mean a whole lot more. Especially when you are on the wrong side of an upset.

Josh Pate outlined some Week 12 matchups that could result in an upset on Thursday’s episode of Josh Pate’s College Football Show. He busted out the Upset Alert Meter, ranging from a two, all the way up to 8.5. You can check them out here, beginning in the Windy City.

Michigan at Northwestern

An old-school venue hosts this one, as Michigan and Northwestern are set to battle in Wrigley Field. A game where some might expect the Wolverines to roll through Chicago with no issues, Pate presents some caution. If Northwestern can play its style, things possibly get interesting.

“I’m putting a six on this because I think Northwestern can make games ugly,” Pate said. “Michigan should but will they? That’s sort of my vibe in this one.”

South Carolina at Texas A&M

“Nothing on this piece of paper indicates that South Carolina is getting ready to spring an upset,” Pate said. “Look, LaNorris Sellers could have a Superman game here and A&M still win. Just kind of win closer… I tried, guys.”

The Upset Alert Meter sits at a lowly two. Little to no concern about Texas A&M falling at home from the Pate State campus, meaning the Aggies would improve to 10-0 heading into a nonconference game against Samford.

NC State at Miami

NC State holds one of the worst pass defenses in college football, similar to SMU. Going back to the matchup in Dallas, Carson Beck threw for 274 yards, two touchdowns, and two critical interceptions. Beck needs to be more efficient to feel comfortable — otherwise, Miami might be in trouble of dropping out of the CFP race.

“Miami probably needs to throw the ball to win this game,” Pate said. “For that reason, because of some of the inconsistencies that’s been there, I’m going to put a five on this.”

Florida at Ole Miss

Another low number for the Upset Alert Meter, Pate places this one at a three. Just two games remain on the schedule for Ole Miss, getting a bye after this one, then closing the regular season out with the Egg Bowl. Lane Kiffin finds himself as the storyline heading in and Pate believes the coach will play a big role in the result.

“I would have a hard time seeing Ole Miss overlook this,” Pate said. “They’re the better team. Lane Kiffin, I don’t know which of these teams he’s going to be the head coach of next year. But he’s the head coach at Ole Miss right now and that will matter.”

Utah at Baylor

“Utah’s got an elite pass defense,” Pate said. “That’s going to be how Baylor tries to beat them. Sawyer Robertson, that Baylor passing attack, that’s how they have to win. They don’t run the ball great. And that, ironically, is how you would challenge Utah… Baylor cannot stop the run, I don’t think effectively enough and I think Utah can run it all night.”

Strength on strength with one team’s weakness possibly being the difference. Pate is banking on Utah’s defense to stop any sort of run attempts from Baylor. You can crank the Upset Alert Meter all the way up to a five for this one.

TCU at BYU

The college football world will end Saturday night in Provo. BYU is looking for a bounce back after the Texas Tech loss. But a similar style showdown might unfold. TCU can put up yards through the air and potentially get on the board early. Freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier then finds the game in his hands, something BYU did not handle well in Lubbock.

“I think it’s a very dangerous game,” Josh Pate said. “So, I’m going to put an 8.5 on this… Everybody is looking at Brigham Young — ‘Could they get back to Dallas? Could they get back to the Big 12 Championship game?’ Dude, they got to win this week.”