Villanova vs Michigan State: How to watch, odds, predictions from ESPN, KenPom

On3 imageby:Andrew Graham11/18/22

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Michigan State hosts Villanova on Friday at the Breslin Center in East Lansing in the latest installment of the Spartans murderers row non-conference schedule. MSU has already split a pair of games against Gonzaga and Kentucky — both Top 5 teams at the time — on neutral courts, but now gets a game at home.

See how KenPom, ESPN and others have broken down the Spartans and Wildcats.

How to watch Michigan State vs. Villanova

Tipoff: 8 p.m.

Location: Breslin Center, East Lansing, Michigan

Channel: Fox Sports 1

Vegas odds

Michigan State is a 6.5-point favorite to get the win at home against Villanova, according to odds from VegasInsider. The over-under is sitting at 130.5 as of Friday morning.

ESPN Basketball Power Index prediction

Predicted winner: Michigan State

Predicted point differential: 4.2

Win probability (for MSU): 67.8%

Matchup quality: 78.4

The BPI is a fan of the matchup, giving it the seventh-highest matchup score of the Friday slate (78.4). Michigan State is a solid pick to win at 67.8%, per the BPI, but is only projected to win by 4.2 points.

KenPom prediction

Predicated final score: MSU 69, Villanova 63

Win probability (for MSU): 85%

KenPom is similarly bullish on the Spartans, giving MSU a 69% chance to get the win, by a score of 69-63.

More on Michigan State and Villanova

Michigan State comes into this game about as hot as a 2-1 team can be, fresh off a Tuesday win in double overtime against Kentucky. Third-year center Mady Sissoko has been a revelation early and Joey Hauser developing a new scoring knack have helped the Spartans play much better than the sum of its collective parts to date.

And the loss for MSU? By one point to Gonzaga in a game that was played on a boat.

Villanova’s start to the season has been notably bumpier — not a surprise when the program is still settling in to a post-Jay Wright world under new head coach Kyle Neptune. The Wildcats got pounced on in their second game on the road at Temple, losing 68-64. Villanova hasn’t been a world-beater, otherwise. The talent and pedigree is there, but there’s a reason the Spartans are being given the slight edge playing at home.