What should Alabama QB Ty Simpson choose? Stay at Bama, go to the NFL or hit the transfer portal?

Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson’s situation now feels an awful lot like former Alabama QB Jalen Milroe’s situation last year. But will Simpson make the same decision?

The math seems to be changing by the day on these choices, and what used to feel cut-and-dried now seems more complex.

Obviously, a QB with a first-round grade probably should go to the NFL. If NFL personnel people give Simpson that indication, he should put his name in the draft. But if they don’t? He probably would make more money in college.

“No decisions have been made about Ty declaring for the draft at this point and he is still evaluating everything with his family and close advisors,” Simpson’s agent Peter Webb told On3’s Pete Nakos on Sunday.

This time last year, Milroe was coming off an Alabama postseason loss, and he faced a decision. He could stay at Alabama, go to the NFL or enter the transfer portal. Only it didn’t feel after Alabama’s Reliaquest Bowl loss to Michigan that going back to Tuscaloosa was really an option.

Milroe opted for the NFL, accepted an invitation to the Senior Bowl and went through the draft, where he was selected 92nd overall by the Seattle Seahawks.

Flash forward to now. Simpson and the Crimson Tide are coming off a 38-3 Rose Bowl loss to Indiana. While some productive college quarterbacks who had an NFL decisions to make have declared their intention to return to their current college teams and others have entered the transfer portal, Simpson has done neither. 

If he’s still gathering more information from NFL sources, Simpson’s timing makes sense. But that information already was evaluated by USC’s Jayden Maiava, Duke’s Darian Mensah and South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers, who announced with great fanfare their returns to their respective schools.

Meanwhile, 2025 Alabama backup Austin Mack — who replaced an injured Simpson in the Rose Bowl — also has not indicated his plans for 2026. Keelon Russell, the blue-chip QB recruit Alabama signed in 2025 who redshirted this season, told reporters at Rose Bowl media day that he intends to play at Alabama in 2026.

Simpson and Alabama could have announced a Simpson return weeks ago, but it still hasn’t happened. The reason for that may simply be the NFL decision.

But whether staying in college means staying at Alabama or entering the portal, it’s instructive to examine the NFL salary numbers depending on where a player gets selected. Spotrac has published the 2026 NFL rookie salary scale, and it helps explain what the college QBs are weighing when they make these decisions.

Let’s start with the first round, which still remains a no-brainer for the player. The final pick of the first round receives a four-year deal worth $16.2 million — with a team option for a fifth year — that includes a first-year salary of $3 million. 

An experienced, successful college QB playing at a major power conference program should expect at least $2 million, but a top-shelf QB who took a team to the SEC title game and the College Football Playoff — despite his team having little to no run game — probably would command at least $2.5 million and possibly significantly more. Depending on how many bidders might be in the market, that figure could push toward $4 million.

The first-year salary of the first pick of the second round is $2.3 million, but a player confident that he could become a franchise starter might prefer that spot because there is no fifth-year option. That player would become a free agent after four seasons.

But by the middle of the second round, the first-year salary drops below $2 million. A player selected late in the third like Milroe was last year would make $1.2 million in his rookie year. Milroe probably would have made more than that this season had he decided to enter the transfer portal rather than enter the draft.

In other words, a QB declaring for the draft needs to feel fairly certain he’s getting selected in the first 40 or so picks or he’s going to cost himself money*. 

*It’s also possible some of these players simply want to be NFL players and are not concerned if they make less money. This is a personal decision, and everyone has their own reasons.

Should Simpson decide he wants to stay in college but not at Alabama, there would be a solid market for his services. Tennessee is actively seeking a portal QB. Should Dante Moore decide to enter the draft, Oregon would be in the market. Miami seems likely to take another transfer to replace Carson Beck, whose eligibility expires after this season.

The money available could be significant. Depending on where the NFL evaluators land on Simpson, it could be significantly more than the slotted rookie salary.

What used to be an easy choice before the NIL era now has become a lucrative dilemma.