Where do teams with first-year head coaches stack up in ESPN's initial 2023 returning production rankings, and what could the data mean for the fall?
There were 24 FBS openings in the 2022-23 coaching cycle, and now that every new hire has signed their first recruiting class and gone shopping in the transfer portal, rosters are starting to take shape for the 2023 season.
There will be more movement to come after spring practice with another two-week window with the transfer portal, but we have a greater sense right now of the bones of most teams — especially thanks to ESPN college football analyst Bill Connelly, the creator of S&P, which is now SP+, who released his initial returning production data Tuesday.
Connelly revealed the data of all 133 FBS teams and offered a reminder of how his numbers are weighted and that he’s adjusted his formula with the rise of so many transfers.
Offense: 47% of the overall number of returning OL snaps; 24% percent of returning WR/TE receiving yards; 23% of returning QB passing yards; 6% of returning RB rushing yards.
Defense: 70% of returning tackles; 14% of returning passes defended; 12% of returning tackles for loss; 4% of returning sacks.
As for transfers, Connelly explains, “If a player transfers from one FBS school to another, I mash his production from his previous team into the numerator and denominator for his new team. So if your quarterback leaves, and you bring in a transfer who was starting somewhere else, that dampens the overall blow of your QB leaving significantly.
For instance, while Kenny Dillingham at Arizona State (20 commits, 25 transfers) and Deion Sanders at Colorado (20 commits, 26 transfers) have swapped out half their rosters, some of those players’ stats are counted with their new teams. Notably, not guys (i.e. Travis Hunter or Shedeur Sanders) who make the leap from FCS to FBS, as Connelly is still playing with his formula to account for players making the move from level to level.
With that, where do the teams of all 24 first-year head coaches stack up? Who is positioned for early success in Year 1? And who is facing a real uphill battle with a potential Year 0?
RETURNING PRODUCTION ON TEAMS WITH FIRST-YEAR HEAD COACHES
Tom Herman, FAU— 3rd nationally: 83% total production (68% Off, 99% Def)
Brian Newbery, Navy— 17th nationally: 75% total production (76% Off, 74% Def)
Eric Morris, North Texas — 20th nationally: 74% total production (76% Off, 71% Def)
Tim Beck, Coastal Carolina — 25th nationally: 72% total production (79% Off, 65% Def)
Luke Fickell, Wisconsin — 27th nationally: 72% total production (75% Off, 68% Def)
Hugh Freeze, Auburn — 28th nationally: 71% total production (72% Off, 71% Def)
Matt Rhule, Nebraska— 39th nationally: 69% total production (72% Off, 66% Def)
Barry Odom, UNLV— 42nd nationally: 69% total production (71% Off, 66% Def)
Brent Key, Georgia Tech — 47th nationally: 67% total production (69% Off, 66% Def)
Ryan Walters, Purdue — 57th nationally: 65% total production (71% Off, 56% Def)
Zach Arnett, Mississippi State — 91st nationally: 57% total production (71% Off, 53% Def)
Deion Sanders, Colorado — 93rd nationally: 57% total production (57% Off, 57% Def)
Alex Golesh, USF— 95th nationally: 56% total production (46% Off, 57% Def)
Jeff Brohm, Louisville — 99th nationally: 56% total production (61% Off, 50% Def)
Jamey Chadwell, Liberty— 104th nationally: 55% total production (63% Off, 47% Def)
Kenny Dillingham, Arizona State— 109th nationally53% total production (61% Off, 45% Def)
Biff Poggi, Charlotte — 120th nationally: 50% total production (52% Off, 48% Def)
Lance Taylor, Western Michigan — 121st nationally: 49% total production (67% Off, 31% Def)
Scott Satterfield, Cincinnati— 124th nationally: 46% total production (42% Off, 49% Def)
Kevin Wilson, Tulsa — 126th nationally: 40% total production (41% Off, 38% Def)
Trent Dilfer, UAB — 127 nationally: 39% total production (36% Off, 42% Def)
G.J. Kinne, Texas State—128th nationally: 38% total production (37% Off, 40% Def)
Troy Taylor, Stanford — 129th nationally: 35% total production (34% Off, 36% Def)
Kenni Burns, Kent State — 133rd nationally: 25% total production (19% Off, 31% Def)
WHAT COULD THE EARLY DATA TELL US?
Last season, Sonny Dykes took advantage of a roster ready to win — both with plenty of internal returning production + 13 transfers — and TCU made the College Football Playoff.
I doubt there’s a similar rags-to-riches story from this group in 2023, but Wisconsin looks well-positioned to reassert its status in the Big Ten West.
Luke Fickell’s new team ranks No. 3 in the Big Ten in returning production — tops in its division. With transfer Tanner Mordecai at QB and no Michigan or Penn State on the schedule, the Badgers are probably preseason favorites to make it Indy come December.
Elsewhere, Auburn ranks No. 3 in the SEC in returning production. The Tigers have a tough schedule, but they should go bowling after missing the postseason in 2022.
What about Nebraska? Matt Rhule is notorious for punting on Year 1 (2-10 at Temple, 1-11 at Baylor), but the Cornhuskers have enough returning production that they should make a bowl game for the first time in seven years.
Willie Taggert was fired by FAU for underperforming, and while the Owls are making a move to the AAC, Tom Herman inherits the No. 3 overall roster in terms of returning production in the country — No. 1 defensively with 99% back. Eric Morris at North Texas is another first-year coach who inherits a solid foundation.
Conversely, several other first-year head coaches in charge of teams switching leagues could be in store for a rough fall.
Jamey Chadwell’s roster, even with minimal returning production at Liberty, is still better than most C-USA rosters. But that’s not the case for Trent Dilfer at UAB (moving from the C-USA to AAC) or Scott Satterfield at Cincy (AAC to Big 12) — both of whom have rosters that rank in the bottom 10 nationally among all schools.
And then there’s Stanford and Kent State.
The Cardinal rank last among all Power 5 teams, as Troy Taylor might not be able to field a roster (already 20 transfer out) with more than 60ish scholarship players.
Kent State has also been raided by the transfer portal, and it’s no wonder why Shawn Lewis left as head coach for the OC job at Colorado considering the roster’s makeup in 2023 — last in all of college football.