Who has a realistic shot at the No. 1 recruiting class in 2023?

On3 imageby:Keegan Pope07/25/22

bykeeganpope

A little less than five months remains until the Early Signing Period, when the vast majority of top-notch high school football recruits will sign on the dotted line at the college of their choice. But after a fury of commitments late in the month of June and early in July, the race for the No. 1 recruiting class is heating up quickly.

Among the five programs currently at the top of the On3 Consensus Team Recruiting Rankings, four already have 17 or more commitments. As it relates to prospects as a whole, 33 of the top 50 are already off the board. Expanded to the 100, 66 are already committed.

As anyone who follows recruiting knows though, the next five months won’t be short on change. According to On3’s data analyzing past cycles, more than 500 decommitments are still expected in the Class of 2023. Nothing now is guaranteed to be in the same place come December and eventually February.

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That includes team rankings. As prospects are re-ranked during their senior seasons, programs will inevitably shift up and down a bit. And they will do so even more as they add or lose highly rated commitments. But unlike other major recruiting services, On3’s team rankings are less likely to have big fluctuations between now and the end of the cycle. The rankings solve the problem of varying class sizes during the recruiting cycle. It compiles the highest-rated commits for each team up to a total based on a rolling average of current total commitments among Power 5 schools.

Handful of teams in contention for top-ranked class

With that in mind, who actually has a shot at the No. 1 class in the 2023 cycle? Based on current commits and the targets still on the board who have enough to juice to move the needle, it’s a small number.

So far in this cycle, it looks to be unlikely we will see any programs with classes like Texas A&M’s in 2022 or Alabama’s in 2021. Early returns show that top talent is spreading out more evenly, creating the opportunity for more programs to seriously contend at the top of the rankings.

Ohio State

On3 Consensus Team Ranking: No. 1
Commits: 19
Avg. Grade Per Commit: 92.06

The Buckeyes currently have the No. 1 class in the land after a commitment from On3 Consensus No. 55 prospect Jason Moore on July 10. After a bit of a slow start this spring, Ryan Day and Co. have made up ground in a hurry. Nineteen prospects have already pledged to the Buckeyes, including a pair of five-star receivers in Carnell Tate and Brandon Inniss. Which begs the question: Who else can the Buckeyes add?

(For reference, no program since 2012 has finished No. 1 in the On3 Consensus Team Rankings with fewer than three five-star signees. And only once has the top class featured just three: Alabama in 2019.)

OSU’s chances to take home the crown likely come down to two prospects: five-star defensive lineman Matayo Uiagalelei and five-star safety Caleb Downs. Both are very legitimate possibilities, with On3’s Chad Simmons saying earlier this month that he believes the Buckeyes are currently a little ahead of other programs for Uiagalelei. Those two, combined with Tate and Inniss, and potentially seeing one or two of their other top-50 commits move up in the rankings, could lock down the top spot.

Notre Dame

On3 Consensus Team Ranking: No. 2
Commits: 20
Avg. Grade Per Commit: 91.85

No program had a hotter start to this class than Notre Dame, which picked up five-star EDGE Keon Keeley and top-80 defensive lineman Brenan Vernon on back-to-back days last June. And the momentum hasn’t gone away. The Fighting Irish have 20 commitments thus far, 12 of whom rank in the top 200 of the On3 Consensus.

However, they’ll need some surprise flips or rankings movement to win out come this winter. Top-25 prospect Samuel M’Pemba (considered a Georgia lean at this point) and the aforementioned Downs are the only prospects in the top 50 still seriously considering the Irish.

Four-star offensive tackle commit Charles Jagusah, who On3 ranks as the nation’s No. 1 player at his position, has a chance to move into five-star status by the time things are settled. So too could top-60 safety commit Peyton Bowen, who On3 ranks No. 18 nationally. Should those two put together strong senior campaigns, Notre Dame could be in the conversation come February.

Georgia

On3 Consensus Team Ranking: No. 3
Commits: 17
Avg. Grade Per Commit: 91.48

Much like their SEC rivals one state over, Georgia has gotten off to a strong, though not dominant start to this cycle. The Bulldogs have nine commitments ranked among the top 150 nationally, but so far no five-stars have pledged to Kirby Smart and Co. There are three to keep an eye on: defensive lineman James Smith, EDGE Qua Russaw, and Caleb Downs.

Georgia is very much in the mix with all three — and was at one point considered the slight favorite for Downs. Adding those three would build not only an elite defensive class, but it would take three two of Alabama’s biggest defensive targets out of the Yellowhammer State.

Another potential big name with Georgia leanings is consensus five-star EDGE Samuel M’Pemba. A combination of him, along with Smith, Russaw and Downs would almost certainly cement another top-ranked class for the ‘Dawgs.

Alabama

On3 Consensus Team Ranking: No. 4
Commits: 14
Avg. Grade Per Commit: 92.73

More than any cycle in recent memory, the Tide have been on the wrong end of a few recent five-star commitments. A few weeks after missing on Arch Manning, Nick Saban and Co. were unable to land Peter Woods, an Alabama legacy who was long thought to be a heavy lean there.

The news isn’t all bad, though. The Tide already have a pair of five-star defensive back commitments with Tony Mitchell and Jahlil Hurley. And of the 17 top-50 players yet to commit, Alabama is very much in the mix with six of them. The two biggest names on the board are the Montgomery (Ala.) Carver duo of James Smith and Qua Russaw.

Both are consensus five-stars and have made no bones about the fact that they want to play together at the next level. Although their lists haven’t been trimmed down much, all intel points to this being a battle between Alabama and Georgia. Whoever wins it is on the fast track to the No. 1 class.

Among the other names who could extend Alabama’s reign as the bluest of bloods: Five-Star Plus+ CB Cormani McClain, Caleb Downs and five-star running back Richard Young. And never count a few flips between now and Signing Day.

Texas

On3 Consensus Team Ranking: No. 5
Commits: 20
Avg. Grade Per Commit: 90.72

Did anyone have a better past month than Steve Sarkisian? The second-year Texas coach not only landed the nation’s No. 1 overall prospect, Five-Star Plus+ QB Arch Manning, but also hauled in top-30 safety Derek Williams and No. 32 prospect Johntay Cook. Those additions, plus 10 other commitments in the span of three weeks, pushed the Longhorns as high as No. 2 in the team rankings. They currently sit at No. 5, but there’s a very legitimate path to No. 1.

Five-star Denton Ryan linebacker Anthony Hill, Arlington Martin top-35 safety Javien Toviano, and On3’s No. 1 running back, Cedric Baxter Jr., are the biggest targets for Texas still on the board.

All three have a chance to be five-stars by February. And if Texas can add that trio to Manning, Williams and Cook, also another potential five-star, they would be the major favorite to take home the top class.

Clemson

On3 Consensus Team Ranking: No. 6
Commits: 17
Avg. Grade Per Commit: 90.99

The 2022 class was undoubtedly a disappointment for Clemson. For the first time in a half-decade, the Tigers finished outside the top 10 of the class rankings. Combine that with their performance on the field, and a lot of questions were raised about Dabo Swinney. He has answered them — and in a big way. First and foremost, the Tigers beat out Alabama in its own state for five-star defensive lineman Peter Woods.

His commitment gave them four pledges among the top 80 prospects in the country, with quarterback commit Christopher Vizzina recently achieving five-star status. Like Notre Dame, they would need some significant rankings bumps for their current commits if the No. 1 class is going to be attainable. None of the top-50 prospects still uncommitted have the Tigers in their top schools, according to the On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine. It’s a long shot, but the Tigers are still at least in the room.

Miami

On3 Consensus Team Ranking: No. 8
Commits: 14
Avg. Grade Per Commit: 91.02

Just seven months after hiring Mario Cristobal, the No. 1 overall class is a possibility for Miami. The Hurricanes have been on a recruiting tear in recent weeks, landing five-star offensive tackle Francis Mauigoa, top-50 quarterback Jaden Rashada, and top-40 EDGE Jayden Wayne. And they’re not done.

The ‘Canes are trending in a big way for five-star Brockton (Mass.) Thayer Academy offensive tackle Samson Okunlola, as well as four-star New Jersey safety Jayden Bonsu. Adding those two would almost certainly push Miami into the top five of the team rankings.

To have a chance at the No. 1 spot come February though, a few things will have to happen. At least one, if now two of the Hurricanes’ highly ranked four-stars will need to ascend to five-star status — Wayne seems the most likely. Second, Miami will need to flip five-star wide receiver Jalen Brown from LSU. He just committed to the Tigers, but is a Miami native and plans to take multiple official visits this fall. Bringing him into the class, or somehow getting back into the race and landing Five-Star Plus+ cornerback Cormani McClain would put Cristobal and Co. in pole position to end up with their first No. 1 class ever.

USC

On3 Consensus Team Ranking: No. 10
Commits: 14
Avg. Grade Per Commit: 90.80

No coach had a bigger start to this recruiting cycle than Lincoln Riley did. Just days after leaving Oklahoma for USC, he flipped Five-Star Plus+ quarterback Malachi Nelson to the Trojans. Three weeks later, he landed Five-Star Plus+ wideout Zachariah Branch out of Las Vegas (Nev.) Bishop Gorman.

And the Trojans have put together a strong class around them, which includes four more top-200 prospects. But USC will have some serious work to do if it wants to be in contention at the top of the heap come winter. The Trojans are heavily favored for five-star tight end Duce Robinson and are very much in the mix with five-star defensive lineman Matayo Uiagalelei. Top-100 Junipero Serra (Calif.) cornerback Rodrick Pleasant is also considered a USC lean by the On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine (RPM).

But outside of that, Riley and Co. will need to flip a handful of major targets or see some big rankings boosts to be a legit threat at the No. 1 class.