NASCAR Championship 4 Preview: Pros and cons for each driver

The NASCAR Championship 4 has been set and there is only one race separating these drivers from eternal greatness. Chase Briscoe, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, and William Byron. Joe Gibbs Racing against Hendrick Motorsports. There are so many storylines here and so many more that could arise.

This season, there isn’t a lot of fuss about the Championship 4 in the Cup Series. They each have at least three wins, have been four of the best drivers in points all year long, and have more or less proven themselves in this format.

So, heading to Phoenix Raceway, what are we going to see from these four drivers? The NASCAR Championship 4 only get one chance to get it done. Let’s get into the pros and cons for each driver and make a pick for the 2025 champion.

Chase Briscoe – Joe Gibbs Racing – 3 Wins

Pros: Chase Briscoe has what they call “spurtability” in basketball. He is able to ride waves of success for two, three, sometimes four races. Three times this season, he has posted back-to-back top-fives. He also has the most top-fives in the NASCAR Cup Series going into Phoenix.

James Small is a crew chief on a mission this season. The 19 team underperformed in recent seasons. This year, with Briscoe, they are going to a NASCAR Championship and Small has been a major part of that. He is a big reason why this team has 7 pole awards this year. The 19 has the best average starting position and average finish of the Championship 4.

Cons: With spurtability comes moments of lull. The DNF at Martinsville was less than ideal. His average finish in races after a DNF this season is 14.67. That is a couple of spots behind his season average of 12.5.

This team qualified a poor P30 and finished with a DNF P35 at Phoenix this Spring. Briscoe only recorded 98 laps before getting taken out in an accident on track. If this team doesn’t qualify well, they could find themselves in an early wreck once again.

William Byron – Hendrick Motorsports – 3 Wins

Pros: When this team is on it, they are simply dominant. There is a reason why they have led the most laps this season. Put William Byron in a fast car on Sunday up front with a good pit stall and he’s probably going to win the NASCAR championship. Straight up.

Byron is almost robotic behind the wheel of a fast, well-handling car. He can also help his crew chief, Rudy Fugle, dial a car in late in a race. This duo is experienced and they know each other well. I think that Byron is going to get the most out of his car. Whether the finish is P15 or P1, he’s going to be moving as fast as the car can handle and doing it smoothly.

Cons: What complicates things is that Byron has let races slip through his fingers. The 24 team has let Darlington, Charlotte, and Michigan simply get away from them. If they are in control of the race on Sunday, I don’t feel comfortable about the NASCAR championship until Byron takes the checkered flag.

In the last four races at Phoenix, Byron has started on the pole twice. He was unable to win either race. I just don’t know if the 24 team can get the job done at Phoenix against the rest of the Championship 4.

Denny Hamlin – Joe Gibbs Racing – 6 Wins

Pros: Denny Hamlin has nothing to lose at this point. He has 60 career wins, is the season wins leader, and is embattled in a lawsuit with NASCAR. So, the championship race is really nothing compared to all of that, right?

I’m not going to buy into the narrative that Hamlin doesn’t care about the NASCAR championship. He does. That’s why his experience and his previous heartbreaks are going to be one of his strengths this weekend. On top of that, he has been fantastic at Phoenix in his career. A lot to like about this 11 team going into the weekend. Let’s not forget, they have been locked in since Las Vegas. What can two weeks do for this team?

Cons: Especially since the win at Dover, Denny has been win-or-bust in a lot of races. Iowa, Watkins Glen, Daytona, Bristol, Roval, Talladega, and Bristol in the last three months are all finishes of P23 or worse. In that time, he has three top fives and two of those were wins. The other was a runner-up at Kansas, where Hamlin led the most laps.

Hamlin just suffered an engine failure, along with Chase Briscoe, at Martinsville. He has suffered multiple mechanical issues in recent weeks, including starter issues. It makes me very nervous about his chances.

Kyle Larson – Hendrick Motorsports – 3 Wins

Pros: Just when it looked like we were going to see Kyle Larson quietly go away this season, he has roared back to life. Two Top 10s and three top fives in the last six races, this is a team that is surging at the right time.

Cliff Daniels is going to have this team on top of things this weekend. Whatever happens, it won’t be for a lack of effort and attention to detail. Daniels is one of the best in the business and he is going to be dialed in on Sunday. You just can’t count this duo out no matter what and with recent results, I think that Kyle Larson is going to win the NASCAR Championship.

Cons: For as talented as Larson is, he often finds a way to overdrive his car in big moments. We kind of saw that in the most extreme example back at the Coca-Cola 600 this season. This driver and team cannot shoot themselves in the foot this weekend.

If Larson is going to win his second NASCAR championship, he has to be focused and race within his car’s capabilities. He can’t let himself get caught up in a measuring contest with someone else and burn up his tires, or worse.