Preview: Wisconsin at Minnesota

A year ago, Minnesota denied Wisconsin a bowl berth, snapping a 22-year postseason run for the Badgers. While a bowl game for UW this season is unlikely, the Badgers (4-7, 2-6) do have an outside shot if they can beat the Gophers (6-5, 4-4) on Saturday.

While it’s been a miserable 2025 season for Wisconsin, they can end things on a high note with three victories in their last four games. And there’d be no better way to end things than regaining Paul Bunyan’s Axe from their border rival.

“If we were to win against Minnesota and get to a bowl game, that would be awesome. But, this game defines your season,” said senior linebacker Aaron Witt, a Minnesota native.

GAME INFO

Time: 2:30 p.m. CT

Where: Huntington Bank Stadium (Minneapolis, Minn.)

TV: FS1

Stream: Fox Sports Go

TV Crew: Noah Reed, Robert Smith

Series History: Tied 63-63-8

Last Meeting: Minnesota won 24-7 in 2024

Vegas Line: Wisconsin – 1.5

NUMBERS TO KNOW

3: Minnesota has won three of the last four over Wisconsin.

17: The Badgers have won 17 of the last 21 meetings with the Gophers.

38: Minnesota owns a 38-28-2 edge over Wisconsin in Minneapolis.

46: Since the introduction of Paul Bunyan’s Axe in 1948, UW leads the series, 46-28-3.

63: The all-time series between the two schools is tied 63-63-8.

135: UW and UM will meet for the 135th time on Saturday, making it the longest-played rivalry in college football.

WHAT TO WATCH

Can Wisconsin Protect Carter Smith?

This is a game that’s a little scary if you’re Wisconsin, rolling out a true freshman quarterback. Minnesota has one of the best pass rushes in the country. In 11 games, the Gophers have 34 sacks. Averaging 3.1 sacks per game, UM leads the Big Ten in that department.

Will the Badgers Continue to Dominate Up Front?

On the flip side, Wisconsin has caused more havoc than anyone over the last month. In their last four outings, the Badgers have racked up 18.0 sacks, including 15.0 sacks in November alone. UW became the first Big Ten team since 2007 to have 5.0 sacks in three consecutive games. Those numbers have all come against ranked teams as well.

Will UW Rise to the Occasion?

Throw out the numbers for a bit. Wisconsin has not played very well under head coach Luke Fickell when there are expectations. I wonder about this team now that people are jumping back on the bandwagon. Not taking away what they’ve done in November to turn things around, but all the two wins over Washington and Illinois came at a time when there was essentially nothing to play for.

On Saturday, there is something at stake. Not only can the Badgers regain Paul Bunyan’s Axe and put a trophy back in that empty case, but they can also salvage what had been a trainwreck 2025 season and carry some big momentum into 2026.

PREDICTION

This is a tough one to call. Wisconsin has undoubtedly turned a corner in the month of November, knocking off a pair of top 25 teams. However, those came at home, and the Badgers could essentially go out there with a nothing-to-lose mentality. Can UW carry it over now that they have expectations and pressure again versus a Minnesota program that almost always seems to play them well?

The Gophers are 6-0 at home this season, including a win over then No. 24 Nebraska.

You look at the way the Badgers have been winning — ball control, running the football, clean football, and playing opportunistic defense. Minnesota ranks top 50 nationally in run defense and time of possession. The Gophers are also elite when it comes to protecting the football and not committing penalties.

I think the two defenses control most of this game and make it ugly. I’m going to take Minnesota, simply because they’ll get better quarterback play in tough temperatures and the Gophers have been much better at home this season.

But I don’t feel good about it.

Minnesota 13 Wisconsin 10