Colorado hoops mailbag: What to be done about the frontcourt?

The Colorado Buffaloes men’s basketball team (16-13, 6-10 Big 12) holds down 11th place in the Big 12 after taking a thumping at the Fertitta Center.

Despite Houston’s big man, Joseph Tugler, only playing 19 minutes due to early foul trouble, CU’s frontcourt once again struggled. The Buffs were outrebounded 12, and were minus-four on the offensive glass. UH’s frontcourt was a combined 16-of-21 from the field.

Meanwhile, Colorado’s backcourt of freshman phenom Isaiah Johnson and Barrington Hargress ran into the Cougars’ three-headed monster of a backcourt. While Johnson scored 19 points with four assists, the Buffs had 15 turnovers as Hargress had a quiet day (six points, six assists). Notably, UH’s Milos Uzan had a career-high 26 points and freshman Kingston Flemings went for 11 points, six rebounds and eight assists.

Still, CU has fared far better than last year’s bunch did, which finished with just three conference wins.

But with the Buffs’ frontcourt remaining inconsistent, can the small yet talented backcourt help the Black-and-Gold win another two or a few games in the Big 12 Championship tournament?

Here’s my first-ever CU hoops mailbag, with questions submitted via Instagram. Drop more questions in the replies or on my social media.

What should be done about CU’s frontcourt?

Back in October, it was unclear where the frontcourt stood. Elijah Malone seemed more comfortable after an interesting finish to his first year at CU, Bangot Dak was recovering from an offseason injury and stardom seemed certain for Sebastian Rancik. The three freshmen, though with only two set to play, offered an array of intriguing skillsets.

Fast forward to March, and Malone is out of the rotation. Dak and Rancik, while playing better than a year ago, have struggled to stretch the floor despite being more productive on the wings than inside; Rancik’s 32.5% 3-point percentage is leading CU’s frontcourt.

The trio, beyond some select rebounding performances against smaller centers and some help-side swats, has routinely struggled defensively and on the glass against the Big 12’s top frontcourts. CU is a bottom-five rebounding team in the conference.

The freshmen, Ifaola “Tacko” Fawaz and Alon Michaeli, have been serviceable in stretches. Michaeli’s streaky offense was major early in the season. Yet, Ifaola is somehow too physical for the Big 12, and 6-foot-9 Michaeli’s offense has fallen victim to college scouting reports.

So, what can head coach Tad Boyle do with two games left in the regular season? (Well, not much. But here goes…)

With last-place Utah next on the slate, it doesn’t much matter. Rancik and Dak had solid showings in the first meeting and should continue to start. With CU abandoning the zone it played early in conference play that placed Malone in the middle, it will likely play small with Michaeli off the bench and the potential of minutes at the four for 6-foot-5 freshman Josiah Sanders.

On Malone’s senior day against No. 2-ranked Arizona, small can’t be an option against the Wildcats’ deep frontcourt. Dak and Ifaola are the only two who are somewhat physically capable of matching up with Motiejus Krivas‘s height, and Tobe Awaka showed CU’s most-experienced bigs can’t contain him with a 15-rebound showing last year.

Rancik will need to help the Buffs on the glass and with his wing offense. But unless Malone can somehow draw fouls, assuming he gets some run, and Michaeli sees a 3-point shot or two fall, Dak, Rancik and Ifaola should get the majority of the time against U of A. Wing help from Sanders and Jalin Holland will be huge, as Arizona is only 33.6% from the perimeter on the fewest 3-point attempts per game in the Big 12.

Looking to the postseason, it is more likely that the Buffs play smaller. Dak and Rancik are the best offensive options with more defensive versatility than the others; while Ifaola struggles with foul trouble, Malone and Michaeli lack speed and vertical ability. And lineups with Rancik at the five offer higher potential for offensive outbursts.

Where does Colorado’s backcourt rank in the Big 12?

Here is my list (in order, but split into tiers): (Tier 1) Houston, Arizona, Kansas, BYU, (Tier 2) UCF, Iowa State, Colorado, Texas Tech, (Tier 3) West Virginia, Cincinnati, Baylor, TCU, (Tier 4) Kansas State, Utah, Oklahoma State, Arizona State

These lists are so incredibly hard to finalize.

Does West Virginia’s guard-heavy, defensive-minded lineup qualify for a better backcourt than Texas Tech’s, which Christian Anderson carries almost single-handedly?

Or, what would happen if Riley Kugel and Themus Fulks switched with Tamin Lipsey and Killyan Toure? Would Lipsey and Toure have an easier time matching Kugel’s and Fulks’ offensive output for UCF, or would Kugel and Fulks be able to fit into Iowa State’s defensive scheme along with their offense?

Anyway…

I picked Colorado as the seventh-best backcourt in the Big 12. Johnson and Hargress are combining for over 30 points and seven assists per night, while CU has an assist-to-turnover ratio in the 88th percentile of Division I hoops. Yet, the Buffs have surrendered big performances to opposing guards all season, with announcers noting the strides Johnson has to make defensively.

Granted, the defensive issues are worsened by the aforementioned frontcourt. And as highlighted by how teams are blitzing Hargress and Johnson coming off ballscreens, they are having to produce against defenses focused on them. Hargress and Johnson are posting better numbers despite having less to work with than some of the backcourts behind them.

However, while all the teams listed ahead of Colorado have more complete teams, their guard rooms either produce comparable offense to Hargress and Johnson or outdo it. More notably, they are taller, translating to the defensive end.

How do I feel about CU ahead of the Big 12 tourney?

Colorado’s fate in the Big 12 Championship tournament is likely more matchup-dependent than most teams; it has beaten smaller lineups and lost to the bigger ones. While unlikely, CU could have a somewhat navigable path to the semifinals. Or, the Buffs could lose on the tournament’s first day.

With two games left in the season, CU is quite likely to hold down the 11th seed in the Big 12. Set to play the 14th seed, assuming the Buffs lock up 11th, it is most likely that Oklahoma State is the first-round matchup, with Baylor and Arizona State as the next most likely No. 14 seeds.

If matched up with OKSU, which lost star Parsa Fallah for the season in the affair after losing to CU, Colorado will have its best odds. The Buffs swept ASU, but got handled by Baylor, making the Bears the scariest potential first-round matchup.

On day two, the Buffs would see the No. 6 seed.

Currently belonging to UCF, which beat Colorado in the CU Events Center, it would be a tough but feasible matchup. TCU, which CU demolished, has the same record as UCF, offering an easier contest depending on how the chips fall. West Virginia, BYU and Cincinnati all sit a game behind UCF and TCU, and all beat the Buffs this season.

If Colorado gets to the quarterfinals, as it did last year, it could play Texas Tech, current third-seed Houston, Iowa State or Kansas. While all are tough matchups, the Buffs had close games with TTU and KU at the CUEC this season, and could have an easier time with JT Toppin done for the season. But it will be their third game in three days, and the first for whoever they play.

If Colorado wins a quarterfinal game? Godspeed.

(I personally think they will win one game. They don’t have much momentum right now, and unless they somehow beat Arizona, I don’t feel great given how deep the conference is this season.)

Favorite Buffaloes I’ve watched this year?

The obvious answer is Johnson. He’s just so quick, yet so smooth. It’s crazy what he does at his size — just a very fun player to watch.

He reminded me of TTU’s Anderson heading into the year, so I talked to Anderson at Big 12 men’s basketball media day. And Anderson, whose father, Christian Anderson Sr., played overseas, credited all the time he had spent playing against NBA talent for his success.

“I’ve played against NBA players all my life,” Anderson Jr. told BuffStampede.com. “I’ve been in NBA gyms all my life, seeing it, playing against, Luka (Doncic), Nikola (Jokic), (Alperen) Sengun.”

With the parallels, it’s been super cool to see Johnson display similarities while also carving his own path. And it’s exciting to see Anderson make the leap he has, knowing what could be in store for Johnson.

Behind Johnson, I’d say Hargress.

Hargress’s passing ability while limiting turnovers is just so refreshing, especially since he’s not afraid of throwing a jump pass, an oop or a skip pass. He has a 3.61 assist-to-turnover ratio, which puts him in the 99th percentile of D-I basketball, and is significantly higher than the already insane 2.13 assist-to-turnover ratio he last year at UC Riverside.

Looking at his scoring, Hargress jumped from 44.4% shooting from the field to 53.8%. While Hargress has had a lot on his plate, Johnson and the other Buffs are far more talented than what Hargress had at UCR. He is getting to shoot good shots and converting.

And, shooting good shots hasn’t eliminated his mid-range. While shooting 48.9% from 3-point range on 3.2 attempts per game, Hargress is shooting 51.5% (91st percentile) on 2.3 mid-range 2-point attempts per game (94th percentile). He’s been able to bail the Buffs out when the offense has become stagnant.

Hargress and Johnspn are the two guys for whom I have no complaints; they either met or exceeded expectations.

Do I think Sebastian Rancik will stay at Colorado?

I have no leads. Out of all the players I have covered, Rancik is one of the most stone-faced, media-trained guys out there (not a bad thing). It’s impossible to guess.

Sure, there have been times when he veers toward negativity rather than positivity. But I think that he is just really hard on himself, more so than others.

If I had to take a shot at it, though, I wouldn’t expect Rancik to transfer. He’s mostly been given the freedom to take the shots he wants, and has played 28.1 minutes per game. He’s valued as a defender and rebounder. And, as a respected player not only in the program but the conference, I don’t necessarily see a move that wouldn’t be lateral or a step down.

I don’t think money would be a huge factor, given that he stayed last season. I speculate that Boyle’s comments at media day about Rancik and Dak staying were due to financial reasons, so I’d be surprised if that popped up.

So, I only see Rancik leaving if he doesn’t think CU can win, or if he thinks a jump from the freshmen would impact his role.

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