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AP Poll prediction: Josh Pate projects preseason Top 25 ahead of 2026 college football season

National Reporter

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The Associated Press preseason Top 25 poll is generally released in mid-August, usually the week before the start of the upcoming college football season. With a smattering of Week 0 games set to kickoff on Aug. 29, don’t expect the 2026 AP preseason poll much before the third week in August.

With that in mind, college football expert Josh Pate decided to take a stab at predicting how the AP preseason Top 25 poll might look when it ultimately drops next month during Tuesday night’s episode of the Josh Pate’s College Football Show on YouTube. And, as expected, the preseason poll is going to look a lot different than it did to end the 2025 season, when national champion Indiana finished as the consensus No. 1 team with all 66 first-place votes after completing a perfect 16-0 season.

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So, without further ado, let’s dig into Josh Pate’s AP preseason Top 25 poll prediction:

1. Texas Longhorns

While some AP voters might be a little gun shy about picking the Longhorns as the preseason No. 1 given the way they floundered out of the gate last season, Pate still expects the majority of voters to once again go all-in on Texas in the top spot.

Texas enters 2026 with one of college football’s most talent-rich rosters, led by superstar QB Arch Manning, who appears poised to shine in his second season as the Horns’ starter. A preseason favorite to win the Heisman, Manning will have plenty of elite talent to work with after Texas landed star WR Cam Coleman (Auburn) and running backs Raleek Brown (Arizona State) and Hollywood Smothers (NC State) in the transfer portal. And don’t forget about the defense, led by electric pass rusher Colin Simmons.

2. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

After being snubbed of a College Football Playoff spot on Selection Sunday last season, the highly-motivated Fighting Irish enter 2026 on a mission to not only make the Playoff but to win it all. And while Pate suggested he’d personally pick Notre Dame at No. 1, he doesn’t expect enough AP voters will agree.

Much like Texas ahead of them, the talent-rich Irish are led by a budding superstar at quarterback in CJ Carr, who is entering his second season as QB1 and is a preseason co-favorite to win the Heisman alongside Manning. And with much of last year’s roster returning, Notre Dame is absolutely loaded in the trenches with what are arguably college football’s best offensive and defensive lines.

3. Indiana Hoosiers

Pate expects the reigning national champion Hoosiers will open the 2026 at No. 3 after losing a majority of last season’s undefeated roster to the NFL, including 2025 Heisman winner and top overall draft pick Fernando Mendoza. Still, Pate believes enough AP voters will have Indiana at No. 1 to give them a shot.

Despite another offseason roster overhaul, Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers reloaded with On3’s No. 1-ranked transfer class led by former TCU quarterback Josh Hoover, college football’s active leading passer. Indiana will also feature one of the best offensive lines with senior All-American left tackle Carter Smith and former Wisconsin guard Joe Brunner, as well as rising star Charlie Becker at receiver.

4. Oregon Ducks

The Ducks open at No. 4 in Pate’s AP preseason prediction after returning a majority of its national semifinal roster, led by rising junior quarterback Dante Moore, who bypassed an opportunity to be the No. 2 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft to run it back in Eugene.

And Moore isn’t alone in that mission. Oregon also returns its entire starting defensive line with senior pass rushers Teitum Tuioti and Matayo Uiagalelei off the edge and massive senior defensive tackles Bear Alexander and A’Mauri Washington in the middle. Given that wealth of talent and experience, the Ducks are among the under-the-radar favorites to win the program’s first-ever national title next season.

5. Ohio State Buckeyes

Pate rounds out his preseason Top 5 projection with the Buckeyes, which won it all in 2024 and went undefeated during the 2025 regular season last year before ending the year on a two-game losing streak. Still, Ohio State is the preseason betting favorite to once again hoist the CFP national title trophy in 2026.

That’s because of the Buckeyes’ superior roster talent, led by superstar junior WR Jeremiah Smith and sophomore QB Julian Sayin, who was a 2025 Heisman finalist after leading college football with a 77% completion percentage last season. Throw in a rebuilt defense under second-year coordinator Matt Patricia and Ohio State has everything it takes to make another championship run next season.

6. Miami Hurricanes

Pate starts the back-half of his Top 10 with the defending national runner-up Hurricanes, which made a surprising Playoff push last season only to fall to the Hoosiers in the CFP title game. And this year’s Miami could be even better after reloading in the transfer portal.

The ‘Canes broke open the piggy bank to acquire superstar QB Darian Mensah and WR Cooper Barkate from ACC rival Duke in the transfer portal. Mensah, the defending ACC player of the year, joins an already-loaded Miami offense that features electric WR Malachi Toney and stud RB Mark Fletcher Jr., who rushed for more than 500 yards during last season’s Playoff run.

7. Georgia Bulldogs

Pate suggested Georgia and Miami could ultimately flip spots in the actual AP preseason poll, but he’s giving the nod at No. 6 to the Canes given how each finished last season. The back-to-back SEC champion Bulldogs have struggled through two straight one-and-done Playoff appearances.

That reality aside, the Bulldogs return one of the SEC’s top rosters outside of Austin, including what could arguably be college football’s best defense in 2026 with eight returning starters. And don’t overlook Georgia’s veteran offense, led by second-year starting QB Gunner Stockton and junior RB Nate Frazier, who will be working behind an experienced offensive line that cut its teeth it 2025.

8. Texas A&M Aggies

Pate predicts AP voters will controversially close out its preseason Top 10 with a “logjam” of SEC teams, with A&M leading the charge due in large part to star dual-threat QB Marcel Reed, who enters his third season as the Aggies’ starter and appears poised to explode in 2026.

Texas A&M rebuilt its offensive line through the transfer portal, inking On3’s No. 4 overall portal class after signing former SEC starters Tyree Adams (LSU), Trovon Baugh (South Carolina), Coen Echols (LSU) and Wilkin Formby (Alabama). The Aggies also added another deep-threat option in speedy former Miami and Alabama WR Isaiah Horton to pair opposite Mario Craver on the outside.

9. Ole Miss Rebels

Ole Miss surprised many by advancing to last season’s CFP national semifinals despite losing head coach Lane Kiffin to SEC rival LSU the week before the Playoffs. But behind breakout star QB Trinidad Chambliss, the Rebels and newly-elevated coach Pete Golding proved they’re bigger than just one man.

And after Chambliss won a legal injunction against the NCAA and was deemed eligible to play in 2026, this year’s Ole Miss returns a battle-tested roster that mostly withstood Kiffin’s poaching efforts. Despite losing several stars to Kiffin and LSU, the Rebels reloaded with 30 new transfer additions, including infamously new linebacker Luke Ferrelli and former Georgia safety Joenel Aguero.

10. LSU Tigers

Pate rounds out his projected AP Top 10 with aforementioned LSU, which dominated the early offseason narrative given new head coach Lane Kiffin‘s chaotic exit from Ole Miss and transfer portal mining. The Portal King completely rebuilt the Tigers’ roster with an eye-popping 40 new transfer additions in January.

Leading that charge was QB Sam Leavitt (Arizona State), On3’s No. 1 overall transfer in the portal, offensive tackle Jordan Seaton (Colorado) and an all-new WR room led by Jayce Brown (Kansas State). Kiffin also overhauled the Tigers defense with the additions of elite pass rushers Jordan Ross (Tennessee) and Princewill Umanmielen (Ole Miss) and star safety Ty Benefield (Boise State).