Governor's Cup Staff Predictions

Cats Illustrated staff members share takes and make predictions before the 2025 edition of the Governor’s Cup rivalry between Kentucky and Louisville.

The game presents one opportunity for Kentucky to reach bowl eligibility after going 4-8 last season and starting the year 2-5. Win and Kentucky will be practicing for another month. Lose and it’s a second straight loss in the rivalry and a second straight season without a bowl.

What are the main reasons for Kentucky fans to be optimistic about the game?

Jeff Drummond: Notwithstanding this last outing against Vanderbilt, Kentucky has played better football of late than Louisville. The Cats are probably healthier than the Cards at key positions. And the road team or the team with more incentive has typically held the upper hand in the Governor’s Cup. With bowl eligibility on the line, I think that favors the Cats.

Justin Rowland: On paper there are a lot of reasons to believe Kentucky has a great chance. The number one reason is Louisville’s offense has been pretty bad lately. Diego Pavia had his way with Kentucky’s defense, but I still think you have to have some confidence in Brad White’s defense in that matchup. So it falls on the offense to execute well enough to protect the ball and execute enough situations or hit enough big plays. In my view, Kentucky’s defense has a clear edge against Louisville’s offense, but I could more easily see UK’s offense finding some success at times against Louisville’s defense. If the game plays out differently then that assessment was just wrong but it’s what I see on paper at least.

What are the main reasons for Kentucky fans to be concerned?

Drummond: Kentucky still has some key injuries going into this matchup that may affect the defense. Brad White’s unit was absolutely torched by Vandy last week, and Jeff Brohm has always been a coach who can dial up some offense against a team with vulnerabilities.

Rowland: Just look at what happened last week against Vanderbilt. I thought the Dores would win but didn’t see that coming. Maybe it was just Pavia having a phenomenal day against an undermanned UK defense. But it is a reminder that UK wasn’t over any kind of hump and you can’t take a solid performance for granted. Maybe I’m too bullish on the defense in the matchup with Louisville’s offense and the injuries are going to cause more of a lingering issue than I thought. Louisville’s defense is also a pretty solid unit and I don’t think you can take consistent success against them for granted.

Then there’s the fact that Louisville is a 2.5-point favorite. That typically means something. UK is really banged up on defense and relying on guys they haven’t needed to step up much to this point. As banged up as Louisville is, Kentucky’s situation is very troubling.

What’s your prediction for the game and who will be Kentucky’s MVP?

Drummond: Kentucky 26, Louisville 23. I see a hard-fought game in the works, but the Cats have been really good bouncing back from disappointment this season, so I’m going to pick them to do it one more time. My MVP is Kendrick Law with a couple of explosive plays to make the difference.
5:

Rowland: Kentucky 30, Louisville 23. Again, I say this often but it could go either way. I just think the game’s fundamentals favor Kentucky. They have often played pretty well in this series. There’s a revenge factor after last year. Louisville has been trending down for a while and Kentucky has bowl eligibility on the line. So I’ll say Kentucky is motivated and takes care of business with Cutter Boley throwing for 250 yards and two touchdowns.