Predicting When Remaining Undefeated Teams Will Lose Their First Game
We’ve entered week six of the college basketball season, and there are only eight teams in the country still standing undefeated.
As you can see, a few of these teams are absolute wagons. So, when will each team drop their first game? Here’s The Field of 68’s predictions:
MICHIGAN
The Wolverines are No. 1 on Kenpom and have looked like the best team in the country after trouncing San Diego State, Auburn, Gonzaga and Rutgers in their last four games. There’s a realistic possibility Michigan wins out or doesn’t lose until late February. Kenpom predicts the Wolverines run the table, and the only games he has within single digits are at Michigan State (Jan. 30), at Ohio State (Feb. 8), at Purdue (Feb. 17), at Illinois (Feb. 27) and vs. Michigan State (March 8) to close the regular season. My bet is on Tom Izzo to find a way against what would be a 20-0 Michigan squad coming in, though.
Prediction: Friday, Jan. 30 @ Michigan State.
IOWA STATE
You could also make the case for Iowa State as the best and most impressive team to start the season. The Cyclones handed Purdue its worst ever loss in the non-conference at Mackey Arena and the worst loss at home by an AP No. 1 team ever. The defense is elite, as always under TJ Otzelberger, but the offense has been just as good with one of the nation’s best trios — Tamin Lipsey, Joshua Jefferson and Milan Momcilovic — leading the way. The only loss Kenpom has left on the schedule is at Arizona on March 2, but I think the Cyclones take a hit well before that. Bill Self will have something to say if Iowa State walks into Allen Fieldhouse at 16-0.
Prediction: Tuesday, Jan. 13 @ Kansas.
DUKE
Jon Scheyer admitted the Blue Devils haven’t been their best, yet Duke is 10-0 and has wins over Michigan State in the Breslin Center, Florida at home and Kansas-Arkansas-Texas on neutral courts. That’s a scary thought, and this is another team Kenpom predicts to have just one loss (Michigan on Feb. 21). However, Texas Tech will be hungry for a marquee win in the non-conference if the Red Raiders lose to Arkansas prior to Duke. And I think Grant McCasland’s group matches up well with Cam Boozer and company.
Prediction: Saturday, Dec. 20 vs. Texas Tech (MSG).
ARIZONA
UConn, Florida, UCLA, Auburn. You aren’t going to find a better four wins in the country, and that’s the resume Tommy Lloyd and the Wildcats have right now. Koa Peat has been everything as advertised as a freshman. Jaden Bradley has emerged as one of the best closers in the sport. The Wildcats are dangerous — and if you look at the schedule — its hard to find many losses. It might again take the magic of Allen Fieldhouse for Arizona to drop a game. They’re favored in all of them remaining besides at BYU (Jan. 26) and at Houston (Feb. 21).
Prediction: Monday, Feb. 9 @ Kansas.
VANDERBILT
The surprise team of the college basketball season has been Vanderbilt. Duke Miles and Tyler Tanner have arguably been America’s best backcourt, and the Commodores are up to No. 5 in the NET Rankings. It’s crazy to think about, but Kenpom has Vanderbilt at No. 8 and running the table. However, I think they’ll drop a game soon. Penny Hardaway’s Memphis Tigers are hungry. They need another marquee non-conference victory and their length and athleticism could give Vanderbilt problems.
Prediction: Wednesday, Dec. 17 @ Memphis.
NEBRASKA
The longest winning streak in college basketball (13) belongs to Fred Hoiberg’s Cornhuskers, and they just beat Creighton in back-to-back seasons for the first time since the late 1990s. All is well in Lincoln, and Rienk Mast is one of the most fun players to watch in the sport. Big Ten play is coming, though. The Cornhuskers could pull of a home opener dub against Wisconsin, but winning in Champaign will be a tough task.
Prediction: Saturday, Dec. 13 @ Illinois.
OKLAHOMA STATE
Steve Lutz has won everywhere he’s been, and it hasn’t stopped with the Cowboys in year two. The guard trio of Vyctorious Miller, Anthony Roy and Kanye Clary can really score (all 15+ ppg). There’s a good shot Oklahoma State finishes out the non-conference undefeated. But its Big 12 opener is at Texas Tech, where Kenpom has them a nine point underdog.
Prediction: Saturday, Jan. 3 @ Texas Tech.
MIAMI (OH)
The Red Hawks haven’t played anyone inside Kenpom’s top 200 yet. But hey, 8-0 is 8-0, and make no mistake, Miami (OH) was picked second in the Mid-American preseason and could be playing in March Madness. I don’t see a loss until an in-state rivalry game against a top-60 Kenpom team in Akron.
Prediction: Saturday, Jan. 3 @ Arkon.
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