Fearless Forecast: Northwestern vs. Illinois
The Land of Lincoln Trophy is on the line on Saturday as the Wildcats head south to Champaign in the midst of a winter storm watch.
Early in the season, the outcome of this game looked like a foregone conclusion. Illinois was ranked as high as No. 9 by the AP, while Northwestern looked hapless in early season losses to Tulane and Oregon.
But, late in the season, the momentum has swung. The Illini were upset at Wisconsin to fall to 7-4 and out of the rankings entirely, though they are still favored by seven points in this game per BetMGM.
Meanwhile, the Wildcats got off the mat from a three-game losing streak to beat Minnesota, 38-35, to secure a bowl berth and a 6-5 record. After Northwestern won eight of nine matchups in the heart of the 2010s to tie up the series, Illinois has won three of the last four to retake the all-time lead 58-55-5 over the Wildcats.
That change over the last four years was triggered by Illinois’ hiring of Bret Bielema, who accounts for all three of those wins. Northwestern’s David Braun, in his third year in Evanston, has split his pair of matchups, winning 45-43 the last time the Wildcats were in Champaign, and relinquishing the trophy in a 38-28 loss at Wrigley Field last season.
It’s the first time since 2011 that the teams will meet in a season they are both heading to a bowl game, though that game was played in early October, when the Illini won 38-35. This time, both teams know they’re going bowling and they know they’re tied with a 4-4 record in the Big Ten. It’s not as high drama as 2023, when the Wildcats’ win kept Illinois from bowl eligibility, but there’s still a tiebreaker on the line.
Can Braun pull off the upset at Memorial Stadium again? Or can the Illini right the ship in time to hold onto The Hat?
WildcatReport’s staff logs our picks.
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MORE ON ILLINOIS WEEK: Behind Enemy Lines: Illinois | Stone finally puts it all together with ‘close to a perfect performance’ on Senior Day | Notebook: Braun preps for Hat game, details faith philosophy
Matt Shelton (8-3)
Should the forecasted snow arrive, it could tamp down Northwestern’s suddenly explosive passing game and emphasize the need to get what they can on the ground. That plays into the Wildcats hands as sophomore Caleb Komolafe has burst onto the scene, with just 114 yards to go for a 1,000-yard season. The Wildcat offensive line thoroughly dominated against Minnesota, giving Komolafe and Joseph Himon II oceans of space to run through.
Part of that equation, though, was that surge in the passing game pushing the Gopher defense back. With better athletes on the perimeter and potentially some help from the elements, the Illini will be able to press up and close off some of those holes.
There’s also the recent struggles in Northwestern’s defensive secondary. They’ve allowed 260+ passing yards in their past three games and Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer will be hungry to go out with a win over the Wildcats, looking for star receiver Hank Beatty, the Big Ten’s fourth leading receiver. The Wildcats are also due for some bad turnover luck, so I think they fight Illinois hard but some bad bounces keep them from bringing the Hat back to Evanston.
Prediction: Illinois 24, Northwestern 20
Wildcats—donate blood in Abbott and the Big Ten’s We Give Blood competition to help
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Louie Vaccher (8-3)
A week ago, I felt like I had a pretty good read on this game. Then Illinois went up to Madison and got drummed by Wisconsin, and Northwestern’s offense exploded for 38 points. Now I’m not sure what to think.
The Minnesota win was cathartic for the Wildcats, who finally got their all-important sixth win to become bowl-eligible after failing three straight times. Preston Stone threw for 305 yards and finally showed what kind of quarterback he can be. They should be loose.
Was that prolific offensive performance a one-time thing, or will they be able to take it on the road and win a rivalry game? I’m not sure. But in my opinion, Stone and the passing game won’t matter much if it snows as expected. The Cats have the better ground game and a more physical offensive line, while Illinois relies on Altmyer and the passing game to drive their offense. In the elements, I’ll take a strong ground game over an air attack any day.
If the Wildcats take care of the ball and don’t make any blunders on special teams — a big if after what we saw last week — I think the defense and Komolafe carry the day and The Hat returns to the Walter Athletics Center.
Prediction: Northwestern 24, Illinois 21
