Three reasons for optimism about Auburn recruiting ... 3 reasons for concern: July 9 edition

When July began, Auburn had only two commitments. Now, nine days in, the Tigers have doubled that number. While four verbals mid-simmer still isn’t a lot, it’s certainly an improvement. Auburn has added two 4-stars this month — running back Jeremiah Cobb and receiver Karmello English. But on the flip side, the Tigers missed on 4-star in-state edge Keldric Faulk. Where are things headed? At this stage, it’s still difficult to know.

But today we once again offer up three reasons for optimism about Auburn recruiting — and three reasons for concern.

First, here are some positives …

Auburn has big wins over big-time programs

1: Not every 4-star recruiting win is the same. Sometimes, the rating doesn’t align with how colleges feel about a prospect. Beating out a major program for a recruit, to me, is perhaps the most important metric. Who else really wanted him? If you beat Ohio State, let’s say, for a 4-star that’s significant. In recent cycles, though, Auburn’s wins over the elites have been less frequent than eight or nine years ago. But with Cobb, the Tigers beat out Clemson. And there was no doubt Clemson, which is putting together a monster class, wanted him. With English, Michigan, a participant last year in the College Football Playoff, was the last program to host him on an official visit. Even though both of these players are essentially locals, these wins are incredibly significant.

2: Auburn’s average commit rating is 90.75. That’s fourth best in the SEC. While the quantity to the class isn’t there (more on that in a minute) the quality is. Seventy-five percent of the Tigers’ verbals are 4-stars. That tells you the Tigers have been selective and aren’t reaching. Basically, they’re staying the course.

Auburn’s biggest offseason recruiting event is coming in late July

3: Big Cat Weekend is just around the corner. As Auburn Live’s Jeffrey Lee has noted, the visitors list for Auburn’s biggest offseason recruiting event is shaping up to be pretty good. Especially the 2024 group. You’d like to see more 2023s added — and that probably will happen in the coming weeks. Among those already confirmed to be attending: Four-star Georgia offensive tackle commit Bo Hughley, per Lee, along with some emerging offensive line targets. The event, which takes place the last weekend in July, should give Auburn a chance to gain some recruiting momentum entering the season. It wouldn’t be a shock if the Tigers landed a commitment or two that day. They typically do. Last year, 4-star running back Damari Alston committed during Big Cat. Auburn could use another boost like that. History says it will get it.

Now, here are some concerns …

1: Four commitments is four commitments. Yes, the quality of the verbals is strong, but four verbals is fewer than every other program in the SEC. And check this out: Nine SEC schools have at least 10 commitments. One might argue the Tigers have been selective and probably could have more commitments if it wanted, and that’s true. I believe that. You should, too. But let’s be honest, everyone else in the league could probably say the same thing. The bottom line is, Auburn has lots of spots left to fill — and a lot of needs.

A loss to FSU last week hurt

2: The Faulk decision stings. Not only did Auburn lose out to FSU for a touted in-state kid at a big position of need, it also did not finish second. I talked to Faulk on Saturday and he said Auburn tied for third in his recruitment with Florida. This was a prospect many at Auburn felt good about for months. We continue to hear the Tigers are getting battered by negative recruiting. Sources say other schools are telling targets the Auburn staff might not be around in 2023. That obviously is something the Tigers have to battle every day out there on the trail. But here’s the thing: FSU coach Mike Norvell is entering Year 3 and has yet to have a winning season there. So I’m sure the ‘Noles are dealing with negative recruiting of their own. Losing Faulk to Clemson, given all of its success in recent years, was a pill many fans could swallow. But FSU, which hasn’t had a winning record since 2017, shouldn’t be able to take an in-state priority recruit away from the Tigers.

3: It’s July 9 and Auburn has only one combined commitment on the offensive and defensive lines, where about nine or 10 total signees probably are needed.