Napier gives reasoning to go for two down 11 points vs. Tennessee

On3 imageby:Nick de la Torre•09/26/22•

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GAINESVILLE, Fla. — The decision to go for a two-point conversion when the Florida Gators were down 11 points to Tennessee in the fourth quarter was divisive. So much so that Billy Napier admitted on Monday it was the one thing he was asked most about following the game.

Napier electing to try a two-point conversion with 4:49 left in the game was surprising to most, but he had reason, in his mind, to make it.

Napier has a team of off-field coaches, analysts, and staff that spend their entire week pouring over data. Saturday, shortly after the game Gators Online detailed the analytics behind the decision to go for two when down 11.

On Monday, Napier confirmed what we had reported.

Napier on why he went for two down 11 in the 4th

Here is Napier’s complete comment when asked about his reasoning for going for it.

“There’s two avenues, when you really dig into the numbers, about the approach there. First of all, you start talking about playing for a tie. When you’re on the road, there’s a slight advantage for the home team in overtime, and there’s certainly a bigger advantage when you’re a two-score favorite. I think it’s around 63 percent advantage if you’re the home team playing overtime, and you’re a two score favorite. So that goes into your decision-making,” Napier said.

“Really all you’re trying to do is declare the path early in the game. So you go for two there. If you get it, you’re at 9, and now you’re in a position to win the game with an extra point whereas, if you don’t get it now, you still have two scores with an additional opportunity to go for two. So if you kick it, ultimately, the numbers are going to tell you to go for two at the end of the game anyway to win the game. So you’re just declaring the path quicker, and that gives you a chance to adjust your strategy the rest of the game.

“This is pretty common in this era. Probably the last five years this has happened a number of times. I think it’s all well thought out of, and really going into the game we’re very aware of all the go for two situations and what goes with that.”

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