National outlook remains lukewarm for Indiana basketball entering 2025–26 season

With the NBA Draft withdrawal deadline officially behind us, the landscape for the 2025–26 college basketball season is coming into clearer focus. But one name that has not surfaced in much of the way-too-early preseason buzz is Indiana.

Unlike recent offseasons that brought national attention and top-25 projections to Bloomington — think Romeo Langford in 2018 or the lauded 2024 transfer haul — the Hoosiers enter this summer with a far more muted national profile.

In fact, based on a survey of six preseason top-25 rankings compiled by The Field of 68’s Mike Miller, Indiana is nowhere to be found.

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This low profile comes on the heels of a major coaching transition. Former head coach Mike Woodson departed earlier this year, and Darian DeVries, fresh off successful runs at Drake and West Virginia, was brought in to reshape the program. Reshape it he has.

Indiana’s roster has undergone a total overhaul, with 10 transfer additions, including high-impact names like Tayton Conerway, Tucker DeVries, Lamar Wilkerson, and Reed Bailey.

Still, the drastic turnover has made it hard for national pundits — and predictive models — to get a handle on what to expect.

For fans looking for some data-driven optimism, Bart Torvik’s early 2025–26 projections place Indiana at No. 40 nationally, with the 36th-ranked offense and 48th-ranked defense. That’s good for 11th in the Big Ten, which remains one of the sport’s most competitive leagues.

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Indiana’s omission from ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi’s latest NCAA Tournament projection reinforces the national uncertainty. The Hoosiers, once listed as a No. 10 seed in February, have since fallen out of the projected field and currently sit in the “first four out” category, just behind teams like Texas A&M and Nebraska for the 2025-26 campaign.

The current Big Ten frontrunners in the eyes of pollsters and analytics alike include Purdue, Michigan, UCLA, Illinois, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Oregon. All seven appear in most preseason rankings and bracket projections. Eleven Big Ten schools are included in Lunardi’s most recent field of 68 — Indiana is not one of them.

Hoosier fans need only look back a few months for a reason to keep the faith. Indiana football entered the 2024 season as a preseason afterthought, picked by many to finish last or second-to-last in the Big Ten.

Instead, Curt Cignetti’s team defied expectations and reached the College Football Playoff. Basketball, too, has seen recent examples of programs with new coaches and rebuilt rosters overperforming.

Last year, Bart Torvik’s model pegged Louisville at No. 89 in the preseason — they finished No. 25. Michigan, with a similar rebuild and a new head coach, was projected seventh in the Big Ten and went on to finish tied for second, eventually winning the conference tournament, a season ago.

So while the outlook for Indiana from a national standpoint is tepid at best, recent history offers a blueprint for surprise success.

Since 2016–17, Indiana has reached the NCAA tournament just twice. DeVries inherits a program that hasn’t danced in two years and hasn’t sustained national relevance in nearly a decade. But with a highly-ranked transfer class, fresh leadership, and a low national bar, Indiana may be primed to play the underdog role better than ever.

The expectations may be low. The attention may be elsewhere. But the story of the 2025–26 Hoosiers has yet to be written — and that, in itself, might be their greatest advantage.

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