Iowa WBB Tip Time Preview - at Penn State

On3 imageby:Kyle Huesmann02/04/23

HuesmannKyle

#6 IOWA HAWKEYES (18-4) (10-1) at PENN STATE LADY LIONS (13-10) (4-8)

TIME: 11:00am

TV: Big Ten Network – Megan McKeown and Sloane Martin

SERIES: 56th Meeting – Penn State leads the series 31-24 (Iowa has won seven straight)

THE NUMBERS

OFFENSE: IOWA: 87.7 PPG, 50.1% FG, 36.4% 3PT, 14.1 TO PENN STATE: 73.6 PPG, 43.7% FG, 34.4% 3PT, 17.1 TO

DEFENSE: IOWA: 71.5 PPG, 40.2% FG, 29.2% 3PT, 14.9 TO, +6.0 REB MARGIN PENN STATE: 70.0 PPG, 43.5% FG, 32.5% 3PT, 21.4 TO, -1.2 REB MARGIN

PROJECTED LINEUPS

IOWA HAWKEYES

6’0 PG Caitlin Clark – 27.8 PPG, 7.9 REB, 7.9 AST, 37.5% 3PT

5’9 G Gabbie Marshall – 4.5 PPG, 30.3% FG, 33 STL

6’0 G Kate Martin – 6.7 PPG, 4.1 REB, 3.4 AST, 43.5% 3PT

6’1 F McKenna Warnock – 11.5 PPG, 6.0 REB, 43.5% 3PT

6’3 C Monika Czinano – 18.5 PPG, 6.5 REB, 67.2% FG

PENN STATE LADY LIONS

5’11 PG Makenna Marisa – 18.3 PPG, 4.1 REB, 4.4 AST, 37.6% 3PT

5’7 G Shay Ciezki – 11.4 PPG, 39.4% 3PT

5’10 G Leilani Kapinus – 11.0 PPG, 6.3 REB, 44.9% FG

5’11 G Taniyah Thompson – 8.8 PPG, 47.9% FG, 40.9% 3PT

6’2 F Alexa Williamson – 6.0 PPG, 3.7 REB, 46.0% FG

IOWA PLAYER TO WATCH: PG Caitlin Clark

What is next for Clark? She put up a triple-double 28 pts-10 reb-15 ast against Ohio State and then followed it up with a near triple-double 33-12-9 performance against Nebraska. Last time out against Maryland she went for 42-7-8 and led the Hawkeyes to a second top ten win in three games. Over the last two games, Clark is 11/23 (47.8%) from 3pt range and she is averaging 11.2 assists per game over her last six games.

Caitlin has been stating her case for National Player of the Year. Interesting to see what she has in store for today.

PENN STATE PLAYER TO WATCH: PG Makenna Marisa

Last time these two teams met, Gabbie Marshall did an outstanding job defensively. Marisa was held to just five points on 2/13 shooting. It is her lowest scoring output in her last 56 games for the Lady Lions. With that being said, she is still a dangerous scorer and it will be hard to duplicate that defensive performance.

“Gabbie Marshall was outstanding against her (the first matchup). I think we got to her a little bit mentally. We just took control of that game right off the bat and, maybe, she just didn’t really come back after that,” said Lisa Bluder.

Marisa has followed up her performance against Iowa with 102 points (20.4 ppg) over her next five games, including four three-pointers against Rutgers on January 26th. The Hawkeyes will be looking for a similar defensive effort to the one that had Marisa struggling in Iowa City.

KEY MATCHUP: Penn State press vs Iowa offense

The Lady Lions press has been effective against opponents all season. They rank 12th in the country in turnovers forced per game and 4th in steals per game. They have forced 20+ turnovers in 13 games this season, while just five teams have had less than 15 turnovers against the Lady Lions.

The Hawkeyes were one of those five teams, turning it over just 11 times in their first matchup. Iowa outscored PSU 31-12 off of turnovers and 24-3 in transition. They played the Penn State press about as well as they could have hoped for. Still, the Lady Lions have ability to force opponents into turnovers, so the Hawkeyes will have to once again be smart with the basketball.

THE PICK

The Lady Lions enter today with a 13-10 record, including a 4-8 mark in Big Ten play. The Hawkeyes took care of them in Iowa City easily by a score of 108-67. Since then, Penn State is 2-3 with wins against Wisconsin and Northwestern, but losses to Minnesota, Rutgers and Maryland. They are now 0-5 against Quad 1 opponents this season, but Lisa Bluder is not taking them lightly.

“Everything was clicking for us (the first game) and I’d love to have that kind of performance again, but at the same time, I think we have to go in there really focused to be able to handle their press again,” said Bluder. “It’s tough to duplicate that. I don’t think our expectation is to go in there and win by 40. Our expectation is to go in there and win and play the best we can, but I just absolutely have to remind them of that and try to get their full focus.”

Last time against the Lady Lions, the Hawkeyes held them to 3/21 from 3pt range, including 2/12 from Makenna Marisa and Shay Ciezki. The rest of the team was just 1/9 from long range.

“We had great three-point defense last time. We held them to 14% as a team that normally shoots 34%,” said Bluder. “That was well below their numbers and it would be really nice to have that three-point defense again.”

Still, the main threats stay the same as they were just a couple weeks ago. Makenna Marisa and Shay Ciezki combine for 10.5 three-point attempts per game. Ciezki scored 20 points in the first matchup against the Hawkeyes and is coming off of an 18-point performance against Northwestern.

Leilani Kapinus is averaging in double figures and had 16 points against Iowa. Kapinus has also been a rebounding threat in Big Ten play, with five games with 8+ rebounds. Then, off the bench, the Lady Lions have gotten some production as of late. Taniyah Thompson is averaging 13.0 points per game over her last five games, incluidng a season-high 27 points against Wisconsin. She was 5/6 from behind the arc, which makes her another player to keep an eye on from outside. Thompson is 18/44 (40.9%) from three-point range this season.

6’4 F Ali Brigham was a starter for the Lions last season, but has come off the bench in 19 games this season. She got the start last time out against Northwestern and went for 19 points on 9/10 shooting. Even if she comes off the bench today, she has the ability to be a big contributor.

Here are some important stats to know going into the game…

2pt FG: Iowa 2nd (58.3%) Penn State 103rd (47.5%)

3pt FG: Iowa 21st (36.4%) Penn State 54th (34.4%)

3pt Rate: Iowa 79th (37.5%) Penn State 244th (29.4%)

TO: Iowa 52nd (14.1) Penn State 229th (17.1)

STEALS: Penn State 4th (12.6) Iowa 172nd (7.7)

Off Pts/100 Possessions: Iowa 4th (112.5) Penn State 100th (96.8)

Def Pts/100 Possessions: Iowa 182nd (91.4) Penn State 199th (92.0)

Possessions Per Gm: Iowa 13th (77.1) Penn State 47th (74.4)

Off Rebounding: Penn State 134th (32.6%) Iowa 279th (27.1%)

Def Rebounding: Iowa 9th (76.1%) Penn State 225th (67.6%)

The first matchup has to be thrown out the window when looking ahead to today’s game. Penn State has defeated Purdue, Syracuse and West Virginia at the Bryce Jordan Center. Not the same level as Iowa, but decent home wins. They also kept things close against #4 Indiana at home before falling 67-58.

If the Hawkeyes handle the PSU press like they did the first matchup, it will be hard for the Lady Lions to keep up. They are averaging just 64.0 points per game against Big Ten teams in the top 50 in the NET. Iowa has not scored less than 80 in their last 12 games. WarrenNolan.com projects Iowa to win 85-66. The Hawkeyes will sweep the season series against the Lady Lions, but not quite by 41 points this time. IOWA 92 PENN STATE 72

You may also like