Iowa WBB Tip Time Preview - Penn State
PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS (11-6) at #12 IOWA HAWKEYES (13-4)
TIME: 11:30am
TV: Big Ten Network – Mike Hall and Megan McKeown
SERIES: 55th Meeting – Penn State leads the series 31-23 (Iowa has won 6 straight)
THE NUMBERS
OFFENSE: IOWA: 86.9 PPG, 49.8% FG, 37.4% 3PT, 13.4 TO PENN STATE: 74.2 PPG, 44.1% FG, 36.2% 3PT, 17.4 TO
DEFENSE: IOWA: 70.2 PPG, 40.3% FG, 31.5% 3PT, 15.1 TO, +5.4 REB MARGIN PENN STATE: 66.0 PPG, 41.3% FG, 32.3% 3PT, 21.9 TO, +1.6 REB MARGIN
PROJECTED LINEUPS
IOWA HAWKEYES
6’0 PG Caitlin Clark – 26.8 PPG, 7.5 REB, 7.2 AST, 37.3% 3PT
6’0 G Kate Martin – 6.9 PPG, 3.7 REB, 3.1 AST, 47.8% 3PT
5’9 G Gabbie Marshall – 4.5 PPG, 30.8% FG
6’1 F McKenna Warnock – 12.2 PPG, 5.9 REB, 44.3% 3PT
6’3 C Monika Czinano – 17.6 PPG, 6.6 REB, 63.2% FG
PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
5’11 PG Makenna Marisa – 18.4 PPG, 4.6 REB, 4.2 AST, 42.2% 3PT
5’10 G Leilani Kapinus – 11.3 PPG, 6.0 REB, 2.7 AST, 47.7% FG
5’7 G Shay Ciezki – 10.7 PPG, 2.6 AST, 41.5% 3PT
6’1 F Chanaya Pinto – 6.0 PPG, 4.4 REB, 47.9% FG
6’2 F Alexa Williamson – 6.5 PPG, 3.1 REB, 49.0% FG
IOWA PLAYER TO WATCH: C Monika Czinano
Monika Czinano has had a pretty solid career against the Nittany Lions. In the past three matchups against PSU, Czinano has scored 64 points on 29/42 (69.0%) shooting, as well as 24 rebounds. After starting the season scoring ten points or less in four of the first eight games, Czinano has turned things around. She has scored 18+ points in eight of her last nine games. Look for another good performance from Monika as she is will be the best interior player on the floor.
PENN STATE PLAYER TO WATCH: PG Makenna Marisa
Marisa joined Caitlin Clark on the Nancy Lieberman PG of the Year award watch list in the presesason and is one of the more underrated players in the Big Ten. Lisa Bluder did a really good job of breaking down what makes Makenna Marisa a challenge to guard.
“She has that scorers mentality and is always looking to score. She gets a lot of ball screens, so you’re constantly playing ball screens on her. She’s pretty savvy at reading defenses and she knows when to use a ball screen or when to reject it.”
“She can drive with both hands. She’s not one hand dominant. She gets over one offensive rebound a game offensively, which is pretty good as a guard. She’s very effective from the free throw line and a good three pointer shooter. She has all the boxes checked as far as an offensive player.”
Marisa ranks fifth in the Big Ten in scoring (18.4 ppg) and fourth in three point shooting (42.2%). She has scored 20+ points seven times and has made 3+ three pointers in six games. Her season-high 34 points and seven three pointers came in a 2OT loss to Minnesota. Marisa rarely comes off the floor, as she averages 34.7 minutes per game and has played 35+ minutes nine times.
KEY MATCHUP: Penn State Press vs Iowa Offense
Lisa Bluder said that the Nittany Lions press 33% of the time. With the Hawkeyes averaging 76.7 possessions per game, they can expect to see some defensive pressure on roughly 25 possessions. Penn State is ranked 13th in the country forcing 21.9 turnovers per game, while Leilani Kapinus and Makenna Marisa are combining for 5.2 steals per game.
“It could be a three quarters court, 1-2-2, could be a half court 1-2-2 or full court player on the ball,” said Bluder on the Nittany Lions tendancies. “They’re always trapping and trying to create havoc. Now with that, if we handle it, it causes some mismatches at the other end. If you break the press, you’re usually going to score pretty well off of it.”
If the Hawkeyes handle the pressure well, it could lead to some easy baskets and force Penn State to get out of the press, which is their calling card. Advantage Iowa. If the Nittany Lions force turnovers and convert them into baskets then it could be closer game than expected.
THE PICK
Penn State got off the a great 7-0 start, but are just 4-6 in their last ten games. However, they have been very close several times. They dropped games against Virginia, Minnesota and Drexel by a combined seven points, including two overtime losses. Flip those results and they would be 7-0 against Quad 2 opponents. They also played Indiana and Michigan fairly close. Lisa Bluder said when she flips on the game tape she sees a team that has had a mixed bag of performances.
“(In their last game against Nebraska) they did not shoot well. When people don’t shoot well, bad things usually happen. Marissa was just off against Nebraska and that almost makes me nervous because statistics will even out.”
Penn State ranks in the 200s in three-point shooting rate, but they have a pair of shooters to keep an eye on. Makenna Marisa has already been highlighted as the top player for Nittany Lions and she leads the team in three-point shooting. True freshman guard Shay Ciezki is shooting above 40% from behind the arc and is averaging 10.7 points per game. Marisa and Ciezki have combined to make 62.6% of the teams three-point shots this season. Ciezki herself has made multiple three pointers in 11 games this season.
Leilani Kapinus averages 11.3 points per game, while leading the team in steals and rebounding. She has scored in double figures 12 times, including a stretch of eight games in a row. That was snapped last time out against Nebraska. Alexa Williamson and Chanaya Pinto fill out the starting lineup. Williamson is a grad transfer from Temple and leads the team shooting 49.0% from the floor. She has been in a slump as of late with just 11 points on 5/20 shooting over her last five games. The Oregon transfer, Pinto is the leading offensive rebounder on the team, but like Williamson, hasn’t played her best lately. She has just 9 points on 3/12 shooting over her last three games. Penn State will need more out of them today.
Coach Carolyn Kieger uses four players off the bench starting with G Taniyah Thompson. She leads the players off the bench averaging 7.3 points and 19.1 minutes per game. Over the last seven games, Thompson has seen her minutes increase to 23.1 per game, while scoring in double figures four times.
6’4 F Ali Brigham, 6’3 F Johnasia Cash and 6’3 F Anna Camden are three players with height that you can expect to see enter the game. Interestingly enough, all three players were starters for a portion of last season. Brigham started 17 games last season and averaged 8.4 points per game. She has seen her minutes drop to 10.8 per game, but she has been efficient when on the floor. Brigham is shooting 60.5% from the floor and averaging 13.9 points per 40 minutes.
Johnasia Cash is another player that has seen her role decrease this season. Last year Cash was an All-Big Ten selection averaging 13.7 points and 8.8 rebounds per game. This year she is averaging just 13.4 minutes per game and has yet to have a game in double figures scoring. Anna Camden started 43 games over the last two seasons, but has just five this season. She has played well as of late scoring 28 of her 50 points and shooting 8/15 from behind the arc over the last five games.
It is certainly interesting that the Nittany Lions bring three players off the bench that started at least 17 games a year ago. It’s a group that has plenty of experience and has the ability to produce.
Here are some important stats in tonight’s matchup…
2pt FG: Iowa 5th (57.1%) Penn State 111th (47.5%)
3pt FG: Iowa 18th (37.4%) Penn State 29th (36.2%)
3pt Rate: Iowa 86th (37.4%) Penn State 239th (29.6%)
TO: Iowa 29th (13.4) Penn State 234th (17.3)
Off Pts/100 Possessions: Iowa 6th (112.5) Penn State 90th (97.7)
Def Pts/100 Possessions: Penn State 101st (86.9) Iowa 162nd (90.9)
Possessions Per Gm: Iowa 21st (76.7) Penn State 60th (74.4)
Off Rebounding: Penn State 123rd (33.3%) Iowa 297th (26.4%)
Def Rebounding: Iowa 8th (76.5%) Penn State 119th (70.6%)
The Nittany Lions have kept things close against a couple ranked Big Ten teams and their press can keep them in games if they force turnovers. In losses to Indiana, Michigan and Nebraska, Makenna Marisa averaged just 13.3 points per game. She wasn’t the leading scorer in any of those games. If the Hawkeyes can limit Marisa’s impact and force others to step up and keep things close then they should be able to win.
WarrenNolan.com likes Iowa to continue their stretch of good play with an 84-63 projected win. The Hawkeyes have put together back-to-back good performances and with this one at home it feels like they will be able to keep things rolling. IOWA 81 PENN STATE 66
