Expert Analysis: Another one slips away from Kansas State

KANSAS STATE ON-COURT OBSERVATIONS

PJ Haggerty: This was a reverse Haggerty against TCU. Normally, the conversation around the nation’s third-best scorer has been about slow starts and scoring like crazy in the final 20 minutes. Kansas State got one of its best first halves of the season from Haggerty. In the second half, Haggerty scored just four points and was only able to get off five shot attempts. Haggerty was too loose with the ball though, giving away five turnovers.

David Castillo: Another quiet evening from Castillo, aside from loud misses from three. Behind Haggerty, Castillo is expected to be a weapon on offense, but that hasn’t worked out during Big 12 play.

Taj Manning: It would be nice if the other players on the roster attacked the glass like Manning does. He hauled in 10 boards against TCU, and it wasn’t a quiet 10. But a few were poked away and led to turnovers and the limitations elsewhere restrict Manning’s full impact on the game.

Khamari McGriff: It was a full return to form for the K-State forward. His efficiency returned, as did his fouling tendencies. McGriff could only give the Cats 18 minutes.

Nate Johnson: It feels like a wasted chance for Kansas State when Johnson scores and does it on strong shooting. It was all for not against TCU because of high turnovers just like Haggerty, with Johnson coughing the ball up six times. Making up for 33% of the team total.

Elias Rapieque: His usage has been confusing since returning. He played better than the 16 minutes he was allotted against TCU. I would like to see a bigger role on Tuesday against West Virginia. I have also seen enough to be open to his return next season.

CJ Jones: He caught some serious heat the last few games, he was better against TCU. But still nowhere close to helping a team win games.

Andrej Kostic: Kansas State got some threes from the freshman, but his defense can still be a liabilty and some bad moments found him. Some because of bad plays from Kostic and others from bad luck. Either way, I must admit as a Kostic fan, it was a tough night.

FANALYSIS

K-State fell to 11-18 overall, 2-14 in the Big 12, and 9-8 at Bramlage Coliseum. The 8 home losses are the 3rd most in K-State history. 8 times K-State teams have finished with 1 or 2 conference wins, but this team and the 2000 Wildcats are the only 2 to do it since 1950. 

The Wildcats had plenty of chances in the 2nd half, but as we’ve seen far too often this season this team simply couldn’t make a play when needed. They had far too many turnovers and sent the opponent to the free throw line too many times to get over the top. 6 times in the final 16 minutes of the game K-State cut the lead to 1 possession, but every time TCU answered and ultimately the Frogs simply put the game away. With 4:44 left a Taj Manning free throw cut the lead to 2 points, but TCU answered with the next 9 points and with 2 minutes left the game was over. 

REVISITING THE KEYS

Free throws. The differential didn’t quite read the 36 to 8 game in free throw attempts from Fort Worth, but TCU still scored 12 more points from the free throw line finishing 16-23 (69.9%) compared to 4-9 (44.4%) for K-State. The free throw rate differential was 36.5% to 16.1%>

Rebound. TCU won on the boards 36-31 and had 11 offensive rebounds compared to 5 for K-State. They rebounded 29.7% of their missed shots compared to 16.7% for the Cats and enjoyed a 15-4 advantage in second chance points. 

Turnovers. This became the biggest factor in the game as 18 K-State turnovers resulted in a turnover rate of 25% and 28 points for the Horned Frogs. K-State only forced 8 TCU turnovers and 6 points off of those. 

All of that more than made up for K-State shooting 5% better from 2, 9% better from 3, and having a 57.1% to 48.4% advantage in effective field goal percentage.

PJ Haggerty and Nate Johnson both managed double figures and had some big positives. They combined for 34 points, 12 rebounds, and 14 assists. Haggerty made 75% from 2 and Johnson made 57.1% from 3. However, the pair combined for 11 turnovers and zero free throw attempts and neither had an efficiency rating better than 1.00.

Khamari McGriff and Elias Rapieque each had efficient games, but neither played more than 18 minutes. McGriff scored 8 points on 4-6 shooting with 3 rebounds. Rapieque was 2-3 from 3 for 6 points with 2 assists and a rebound.

Taj Manning finished with 10 rebounds, but was only 3-8 from the floor and 1-4 from the free throw line. Andrej Kostic hit 2-5 from 3 and grabbed a pair of rebounds. David Castillo was 0-3 from the three point line and is now 6-31 (19.3%) over his last 6 games. CJ Jones was 0-3 from behind the arc and fell to 19.3% from 3 for the season.