The 2025 Kentucky Derby and Oaks Mirror the NCAA Tournament

“It’s a great year for the one seeds.” Tom Leach was not saying that in March. The Voice of the Wildcats was talking about the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks, racing this week at Churchill Downs.

Everybody loves a long shot. Whether it’s Mystik Dan (18-1), Mine That Bird (50-1), or Rich Strike (80-1), it only takes one of those winning tickets to change how you think about the sport or horse racing. This year might not be the year that you get to hold a life-changing ticket, but you could still be a part of history.

Santa Anita Derby winner Journalism is the 3-1 morning line favorite in the Kentucky Derby. If you think that’s a short price, Good Cheer is the 6-5 top choice in the Kentucky Oaks. Those are silly numbers, but deserved.

Good Cheer has Dominated at Churchill Downs

Good Cheer is undefeated in six career starts, including three straight Grade II Stakes wins. The connections are impeccable. The Goldophin filly will be ridden by Luis Saez and is trained by Brad Cox. His most dominant horses have been fillies. He won the Oaks with Monomoy Girl and Shedaresthedevil, and the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Spring with Covfefe.

Good Cheer also has some homecourt advantage in the Oaks. Half of her career wins are at Churchill Downs, and if rain makes it a sloppy track on Friday, it should be no problem. She won by SEVENTEEN lengths on a sloppy surface beneath the Twin Spires in September.

“It’s kind of home for her. She performed well here late last summer and into the fall, so we’re excited about giving her a shot in a Grade I,” Cox said last week.

“She’s performed well on a fast track, an off track. She’s pretty solid. I guess if the track was super fast and there was a loose leader or something, but those are things I can’t control, she can’t control. She’s good, and I think she can overcome a lot.”

Journalism gets Ideal Kentucky Derby Draw

Unlike Good Cheer, Journalism does have a blemish on his record. He finished third in his first start and has won every race since.

Journalism has what folks like to describe as tactical speed. He does not start on the lead, but just behind the first group of runners, then kicks into another gear to run away from the field. That should set up nicely in this race. Four of the five inside posts are front-running speed horses. Journalism drew post position No. 8, putting him in an excellent stalking position if things go well out of the starting gate.

“I would’ve been happy pretty much anywhere,” trainer Michael McCarthy said on Sunday. “My horse is fast enough. He’s tactical. I thought 8’s perfect for him.”

There are other worthy contenders in the Kentucky Derby field. Similar to this year’s NCAA Tournament, you might talk yourself into Alabama upsetting Duke or Florida stumbling before the finish line, but when the best have a chance to prove themselves, they show their true colors. You may not hold a winning ticket with a long shot on Kentucky Derby day, but you just might have picked the next Triple Crown Winner.