Advanced analytics indicate Kentucky remains a top-10 team in CBB

Kentucky may be ranked No. 17 and No. 18 overall in the latest Coaches and AP Polls, respectively, but advanced analytics continue to indicate the Wildcats deserve a spot in the top 10.

In the latest 2022 KenPom College Basketball Ratings, Kentucky comes in at No. 8 overall with a top-10 offense (No. 8) and a top-25 defense (No. 23). The adjusted offense — which measures points scored per 100 possessions — comes in at 118.1, while adjusted defense — points allowed per 100 possessions — sits at 93.1.

Only Baylor (No. 1), Gonzaga (No. 2), Houston (No. 3), Villanova (No. 4), Purdue (No. 5), Auburn (No. 6) and Kansas (No. 7) rank ahead of UK.

Taking a further dip below the surface with EvanMiya.com, an analytics website created by Evan Miyakawa, UK’s season-long efficiency and overall success is confirmed even further.

The Wildcats have an Offensive Bayesian Performance Rating — a team’s true offensive efficiency — of 26.2 (No. 12) and a Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating — a team’s true defensive efficiency — of 21.0 (No. 16). It creates a total Bayesian Performance Rating — the ultimate measure of a team’s overall strength — of No. 10 overall in college basketball.

Here is the complete top-10 list:

Gonzaga (60.3 BPR)
Baylor (54.6 BPR)
Purdue (51.0 BPR)
Villanova (50.7 BPR)
Houston (50.1 BPR)
Arizona (49.1 BPR)
Kansas (48.9 BPR)
LSU (48.4 BPR)
Illinois (47.3 BPR)
Kentucky (47.3 BPR)

Kentucky also has a roster rank of No. 8 and a resume rank of No. 10.

Season trends for the Wildcats

In terms of season trends, UK has graded out as an elite offensive team seven times in wins over Robert Morris, Mt. St. Mary’s, Central Michigan, North Carolina, Western Kentucky, High Point, Georgia and Vanderbilt. All resulted in a weighted offensive efficiency rating — points scored per 100 meaningful possessions — of over 120. The team graded out as elite defensively eight times in wins over Mt. St. Mary’s, Albany, North Florida, Central Michigan, Western Kentucky, Missouri and High Point. All resulted in a weighted defensive efficiency rating — points allowed per 100 meaningful possessions — of under 80.

Kentucky has graded out poorly on offense just four times this season, scoring under 100 points per 100 meaningful possessions against Duke (94.7), Notre Dame (98.4), Missouri (99.8) and LSU (87.0) — three of the four being losses. Defensively, the Wildcats have only been poor twice, allowing over 105 points per 100 meaningful possessions against Duke (111.4) and Notre Dame (106.5) — both losses.

In short, Kentucky is playing exceptionally well in wins, as shown by the double-digit margin of victory in all 13 wins this season. In losses, though, the Wildcats are grading out quite poorly despite falling by an average margin of 5.6 points with no loss greater than eight points.

Individual standouts

Team success has been driven by individual success, with Kentucky’s two biggest stars in Oscar Tshiebwe and TyTy Washington grading out as top-30 players in college basketball. Tshiebwe comes in ranked No. 3 overall in BPR with a grade of 68.4 overall, behind only Kofi Cockburn (No. 1, 75.9) and Chet Holmgren (No. 2, 68.5). Washington comes in ranked No. 29 overall with a BPR of 51.2.

Sahvir Wheeler (No. 89, 40.0), Davion Mintz (No. 113, 37.9), Keion Brooks Jr. (No. 119, 37.4) and Kellan Grady (No. 129, 36.9) all grade out as top-130 players in college basketball, as well.

Lineups that have worked

What’s been the secret sauce for the Wildcats in terms of lineups? In terms of lineups with at least 30 possessions played together this season, UK’s typical three-guard lineup alongside Daimion Collins and Oscar Tshiebwe actually graded out the best with an elite 56.6 adjusted team efficiency margin. That metric also accounts for quality of opponent.

Wheeler, Washington, Grady, Collins and Tshiebwe (56.6 in 36 offensive possessions and 37 defensive possessions))
Washington, Mintz, Grady, Toppin and Tshiebwe (51.9 in 45 offensive possessions and 42 defensive possessions)
Wheeler, Washington, Grady, Toppin and Tshiebwe (50.2 in 47 offensive possessions and 50 defensive possessions)
Wheeler, Washington, Grady, Brooks and Tshiebwe (36.4 in 213 offensive possessions and 206 defensive possessions)
Washington, Mintz, Grady, Brooks and Tshiebwe (20.6 in 69 offensive possessions and 66 defensive possessions)

Lineups that haven’t

What hasn’t worked? In lineups with at least 10 possessions on the year, one that includes Wheeler, Washington, Grady, Hopkins and Tshiebwe graded out as the worst by a significant margin (-53.2 adjusted team efficiency margin).

Wheeler, Washington, Grady, Hopkins and Tshiebwe (-53.2 in 11 offensive possessions and nine defensive possessions)
Wheeler, Mintz, Grady, Toppin and Ware (-35.6 in 17 offensive possessions and 16 defensive possessions)
Washington, Grady, Brooks, Toppin and Tshiebwe (-13.6 in 14 offensive possessions and 16 defensive possessions)
Wheeler, Washington, Grady, Brooks, Ware (-1.3 in 15 offensive possessions and 15 defensive possessions)
Wheeler, Washington, Grady, Toppin, Ware (0.3 in 17 offensive possessions and 15 defensive possessions)

A couple of other interesting lineup grades with varying sample sizes:

Wheeler, Mintz, Toppin, Collins and Tshiebwe (145.3 in five offensive possessions and six defensive possessions)
Washington, Mintz, Grady, Toppin and Ware (120.2 in 12 offensive possessions and 14 defensive possessions)
Wheeler, Mintz, Grady, Brooks and Tshiebwe (74.6 in 28 offensive possessions and 30 defensive possessions)
Wheeler, Mintz, Grady, Hopkins and Brooks (-102.9 in six offensive possessions and five defensive possessions)
Washington, Grady, Hopkins, Toppin and Collins (-351.1 in three offensive possessions and two defensive possessions)

Looking for a long-term projection for this team? Kentucky comes in with a No. 3 seed grade and No. 11 overall when combining the EvanMiya, Net, KenPom, Sagarin, ESPN BPI and Strength of Record. Only Auburn (No. 2 seed, No. 8) and LSU (No. 3 seed, No. 10 overall) rank higher in the SEC.

Not too shabby for the halfway point of the regular season.