Analyzing Liam Coen Part IV: The Red Zone

There are many statistical measurements that can accurately calculate offensive success. These include yards per play, first downs gained, and so forth. There are fewer that are more essential than the percentage of touchdowns scored in the Red Zone. Several offenses can light up the stat sheet from twenty to twenty. But, punching the football into the end zone while close to the goal line is a trait that generally translates to a winning formula.

Liam Coen’s 2021 offense was excellent in this category.

Red Zone Touchdown Percentage

First, what is the Red Zone? The Red Zone is the area inside the 20-yard line on the opponent’s side of the field. This prized piece of real estate is invaluable to the offense and heavily guarded by opposing defenses. The likelihood of scoring a touchdown is somewhat low based on the condensed field. In other words, defenses don’t have to defend as much turf and the action is highly contested. Let’s take a look back to the year prior to and the season after Coen’s one-season stint as the Wildcat’s play caller.

2020: 52% of touchdowns scored in the Red Zone (Eddie Gran as OC)

2021: 72% (Liam Coen as OC)

2022: 53% (Rich Scangarello as OC)

I have to admit, these numbers surprised me a little. The 2020 percentage was lower than expected and actually a single percentage point worse than Scangarello’s season in Lexington. These numbers also paint an accurate picture of the slim margin of difference between a seven- or eight-win season compared to a double-digit victory slate. Liam Coen led the Cats to score touchdowns on 72% of their trips inside the Red Zone. A 20-point jump is extraordinary.

Let’s get into the “Why.”

Balance

Ideally, offenses try to achieve a perfect balance of 50% runs and 50% passes. That’s a rare occurrence. The numbers below outline the yards per play, percentage of runs and passes, and touchdowns score via the run and pass.

2020: 5 yards per play

Run: 64% of all snaps

Rushing Touchdowns: 19

Pass: 36% of all snaps

Passing Touchdowns: 7

2021: 6.4 yards per play

Run: 58%

Rushing Touchdowns: 27

Pass: 42%

Passing Touchdowns: 24

2022: 5.2 yards per play

Run: 57%

Rushing Touchdowns: 9

Pass: 43%

Passing Touchdowns: 21

Eddie Gran’s last year as Kentucky’s play caller resulted in a run-heavy call sheet. That outcome was based on philosophy and personnel. The ‘Cats scored 21 rushing touchdowns compared to just seven passing. Terry Wilson was a winner that I greatly respect, but he didn’t have the receiving targets in place to enjoy success in the passing game. Also, UK’s two-deep was built to fistfight in the phone booth with a powerful offensive line and Chris Rodriguez Jr. carrying the football. The result was a run-heavy call sheet. Five yards per play describes the lack of explosiveness as well.

Liam Coen was actually a percentage point less balanced than Rich Scangarello. Coen enjoyed the spoils of an offensive line that dominated at times while having Will Levis at quarterback, C-Rod, and a pair of veteran, NFL pass catchers in Josh Ali and Wan’Dale Robinson. Coen’s offense was more explosive and gained more than a yard per play than the season prior and after. His offense produced 27 running touchdowns and 24 through the air.

Last year’s offense struggled by most measurable standards. The coordinator took the fall, but Scangarello’s offensive line was in disarray for most of the season. The Big Blue Wall was constructed of players that were out of position or in new roles out of necessity. Rodriguez Jr. missed four games and the rookie pass catchers were explosive but lacked experience. Scangarello’s offense manufactured a mere nine touchdowns on the ground and 21 via the pass. The nine rushing TD’s ranked last in the SEC and was a major factor in a low percentage of Red Zone scores.

Play Action Success and Q Runs

Terry Wilson also played through injuries in 2020. He ran the football 104 times for 424 yards — 4 yards per carry — and scored five touchdowns. Play action was a factor, but teams didn’t honor the passing game that resulted in just seven thrown touchdowns for the year. The 19/7 pass-to-run touchdown ratio was lopsided and led to a low-point total. This was especially applicable in the Red Zone.

Liam Coen fit his scheme to match personnel strengths. The ‘Cats rushed for 2,594 yards and scored 27 touchdowns via the run. That success opened up lanes in the play-action passing game. Opponents were forced into respecting the run which oftentimes left voids in pass defense.

The quarterback is an unaccountable player from defensive schemes and a runner gives opponents fits. Will Levis was fully healthy in 2021 and was a genuine threat to run the football, especially in the Red Zone. The signal-caller finished the season with 107 attempts for 376 yards, nine rushing touchdowns, and averaged 8.2 yards per carry. Read that sentence again. Those are good stats from a running back.

2022 saw Levis’ run numbers drop considerably. He accounted for 72 carries for -107 yards, two touchdowns, and a -1.5 yards per carry average. Comparing the numbers from 2021 to 2022 is staggering and telling. The Kentucky quarterback’s inability to run the football in the Red Zone took points off the board. UK failed to make opposing defenses respect the quarterback or “Q” run game.

What Does All This Mean?

Mark Stoops covets balance from his offense. I don’t expect Devin Leary to put up 2021 Will Levis numbers on the ground. The two quarterbacks are different and it’s unfair to expect the same results from the North Carolina State transfer. Liam Coen has indicated that the 2023 offense will look different than the one deployed in 2021. What exactly will that look like? We’ll see. One area that must be fixed is Red Zone offense. UK went from one of the best in the nation to one of the worst in a single season. That’s got to be fixed immediately.

Football season starts in 220 days.