Another bad sign for Kentucky's plummeting national championship hopes

If you had any dreams left of Kentucky somehow turning the season around and winning No. 9, the new AP Poll is another bad sign.

The Cats fell out of the AP Poll earlier today for the first time since January 2023. Even if they had stayed in by winning one or both of last week’s games vs. North Carolina and Gonzaga, they probably wouldn’t be in the top 12, which is a historically bad indicator. Since 2004, the national champion has been in the top 12 of that season’s Week 6 AP Poll. John Gasaway first discovered the weird trend several years ago, and it continues to prove true. Florida, last year’s national champion, was No. 9 in the 2024-25 Week 6 AP Poll, climbing four spots from No. 13 after an 18-point win vs. Virginia. Kentucky was No. 5.

There is only one SEC team in the Top 12 of the Week 6 AP Poll this year: Alabama. Ahead of the Crimson Tide are three teams that have beaten Kentucky so far this season, Gonzaga, Michigan State, and Louisville; if a certain one of them wins it all, it’s really going to sting.

1. Arizona
2. Michigan
3. Duke
4. Iowa State
5. UConn
6. Purdue
7. Houston
8. Gonzaga
9. Michigan State
10. BYU
11. Louisville
12. Alabama

I was talking, of course, about Louisville, but how absurd would it be if Purdue, No. 6 in the AP Poll this week, went on to win it all after losing to Kentucky in an exhibition game? The Boilermakers fell from No. 1 to No. 6 this week after losing to Iowa State 81-58.

Kentucky, obviously, is not in the Top 12 or even Top 25. If you count up the points of the teams receiving votes, the Cats are No. 32. The long climb back to relevancy technically begins tomorrow night vs. NC Central, which ranks No. 350 in KenPom. Saturday’s game vs. Indiana, also not ranked, is much bigger. Gotta win that one or things will get even uglier.

Remember when this team was seeing the No. 9 everywhere? That was a month and a half ago, but it feels much, much longer.

10 AP voters had Kentucky in their Top 25

As mentioned, Kentucky did receive votes this week. According to College Poll Tracker, ten AP voters had Kentucky in the top 25 of their ballots. Shane Mettlen of the Daily News-Record in Harrisonburg, Virginia, and Victor Flores of the Billings (MT) Gazette had Kentucky at No. 20. Two more voters ranked Kentucky No. 22, one voter had the Cats No. 23, and one at No. 24. Four voters ranked Kentucky No. 25. The rest did not have the Cats on their ballots.

If you still have faith that the Cats can win it all, you can get a good value on them in Vegas. On BetMGM, Kentucky’s odds of winning the title are +3500. Michigan is the betting favorite at +575.