Baton Rouge Super Regional Roundtable: Can the 'Cats Shock the Tigers?
After an emotional weekend that saw Kentucky win three games in two days to advance to just their second Super Regional in program history, the ‘Cats are two wins away from heading to the College World Series for just the first time ever. In order to do this however, Kentucky will have to march into Baton Rouge and win two games against the No. 5 LSU Tigers, a feat that Nick Mingione’s squad failed to do earlier this season.
“I can tell you this, I wouldn’t want to do it with another group of guys,” Mingione said of his group ahead of the Super Regional. “This is a special team. A bunch of competitive people. Their term is ‘dogs’ and I would agree. They’re a bunch of dogs and I love being their coach.”
Kentucky has made just one Super Regional appearance in school history (2017), a quick showing which saw them lose the first two games to Louisville (5-2 and 6-2), sending them home early.
“We know [LSU] is a good team but I think the biggest takeaway is we’re a good team too,” Grant Smith said about the Tigers earlier this week. “We could have won the series against them. All three games were competitive except for a couple of innings that made the score seem kind of out of hand. But year, we’re definitely confident going into this series.”
The ‘Cats aren’t afraid. Let’s dive into KSR’s thoughts and predictions for what should be an exciting weekend for the Kentucky baseball program.
Super Regional Game Times
All times ET
- Saturday: 3:00 PM (ESPN)
- Sunday: TBD
- Monday (If Necessary): TBD
Daniel Hager
When trying to predict the winner of the Baton Rouge Super Regional, you’ve got to chalk up a near-automatic win for LSU with Paul Skenes on the mound. Skenes, a finalist for the Golden Spikes Award, has been dominant all season. He was dominant against the ‘Cats back on April 13, allowing just seven hits and four earned runs while striking out 13 batters. That being said, Skenes’ seven allowed hits and four earned runs were season highs, so there’s certainly a path for the ‘Cats to get one over on the SEC Pitcher of the Year.
Following Skenes however, the LSU pitching staff really struggled against Kentucky. LSU had five pitchers give up two-plus earned runs, with Griffin Herring and Thatcher Hurd (who was All-Baton Rouge Regional) giving up three. Both pitching staffs struggled, so I’d expect some high-scoring games. The winners of these games may have to score 10+ runs to come away with a victory, such as LSU did in the first game of the series (16) and Kentucky did in the second game of the series (13).
The Bat ‘Cats are on an emotional journey, but LSU is one of the top three teams in the country for a reason, sporting two of the three Golden Spikes Finalists in Skenes and Dylan Crews. Crews finished the season first in the SEC in batting average (.432), on-base percentage (.573), and hits (95). Mingione strayed away from pitching to Crews earlier in the season, walking him twice in all three games. Talent outweighs momentum (nearly always), so I’m going with LSU in three.
Prediction: LSU in 3
Adam Stratton
I am a full-blown bandwagon Bat ‘Cats fanatic. I’d like to say I’ve been meticulously following them with the utmost passion all season but I’m embarrassed to say I’m a little late to party. The first full game I watched was in the regional (I watched them all), but I’m all in now, fully on board the bandwagon headed straight for Baton Rouge.
Not unlike the Reds, this team is a lot of fun. Who else embodies their inner Ravishing Rick Rude after a big base hit? The success of this team has been awesome and with the chemistry this group possesses, a trip to the College World Series is certainly possible.
Look no further than last season when Ole Miss was one of the last teams to make the tournament but ended up winning it all. Baseball is weird like that and if Kentucky stays hot, why not them?
Having said that, the ‘Cats kind of got hosed facing LSU as a No. 5 seed when they’ve been the best in the country for most of the season. Kentucky will likely snag one game out of pure grit, but the odds will be stacked heavily against them in the series. My heart says the ‘Cats but my gut says to trust the oddsmakers.
Prediction: LSU in 3
Tyler Thompson
I think I watched more baseball last weekend than I have in my entire life. Seeing the Bat ‘Cats battle back from the loser’s bracket to take the regional was the most fun I’ve had following UK sports in a long time, probably going back to the basketball team’s win over Kansas in Lawrence in 2022. The baseball team’s grittiness and camaraderie are the perfect antidotes for the angst within the fanbase right now, to the point that when they were throwing Evan Byers in the air in the dugout during the sixth inning, I remembered that sports are supposed to be fun.
That’s why I really hope that the fun continues in Baton Rouge. The No. 5 LSU Tigers are a different breed of baseball team than Indiana, West Virginia, and Ball State. They have arguably the top pitcher (Paul Skenes) and hitter (Dylan Crews) in college baseball and were ranked No. 1 for most of the season. Kentucky was competitive in the regular-season series in Baton Rouge, taking the second game and keeping it close for the majority of the other two, but “The Box” will be rocking and the smart money is on LSU. As others have said, the head should prevail over the heart when picking this series, and the head knows LSU is the better team with a big home-field advantage.
But, I’m kind of tired of going with the head over the heart. After consuming Devin Burkes’ doubles and subsequent shimmies, dugout dance parties, Big Blue Bombs, and emotional Nick Mingione press conference clips for the past week, give me the Disney storyline of the ‘Cats earning a spot in Omaha in a make-or-break season. Either way, it’s a good ending.
Prediction: Kentucky in 3
Zack Geoghegan
I’ve never been big into baseball, but this group of small-ball-hitting Wildcats has turned me into a fanatic this season. Mingione’s group — both on the diamond and in the dugout — is simply an entertaining watch. They even got me to attend a couple of games at Kentucky Proud Park where I cheered like I knew exactly what was going on (having beer there helped, too).
The biggest challenge Kentucky might have to overcome is the pure size of LSU’s crowd. Alex Box Stadium holds over 10,000 rowdy fans and it will surely be filled to the brim this weekend. For reference, KPP broke its attendance record in the 4-2 win over Indiana that sent them to the Super Regional — that crowd didn’t even hit 7,000 fans. Tigers fans will be out in full force to create an environment that most of these Wildcats have likely never experienced before.
LSU will be the heavy favorite, but the odds were stacked against Kentucky when they needed to win three games in two days just to make it out of the Lexington Regional. The Bat ‘Cats know how to take down LSU too. A handful of poor innings earlier in the season cost them a golden opportunity to pull off the series upset. I believe they can be consistent enough this weekend to get the job done.
Prediction: Kentucky in 3
Nick Roush
LSU appears to have the leg up on individual talent. Individual talent alone cannot win a three-game series, particularly when one of those talents is a starting pitcher. That is why one individual talent for Kentucky is the ultimate x-factor.
Mason Moore was a man-possessed in the Lexington Regional. He was darn near perfect in two appearances, allowing zero earned runs and only two hits in 10.0 innings pitched. When he exited the bullpen, it felt like the other team was done scoring runs.
Kentucky can upset LSU if the Bat Cats can grab a lead and get Moore into the game. How and when Nick Mingione deploys his de facto closer can define the outcome of this series.
Ultimately, it’s still a tall ask. Even if Moore is dialed in, it only takes one swing of the bat from LSU’s power hitters to tilt the series in the Tigers’ favor. Kentucky will not be too intimidated in that raucous atmosphere, but I don’t think it’s enough to advance to Omaha.
Prediction: LSU in 3
Adam Luckett
Kentucky baseball has had the “team of destiny” feel all season and that hit home last weekend when the Bat Cats won three games in two days to claim the Lexington regional. However, UK got a great draw in the first weekend. That is not the case in the supers.
LSU has a stacked lineup 1-9 and Kentucky is not a strikeout pitching staff. The Tigers will put the bat on the ball and extra-base hits will follow. Nick Mingione’s club will need to score runs to advance to Omaha. Unfortunately, the Bayou Bengals have the top ace in college baseball (Paul Skenes) and a pitching staff that is not short on left-handed pitching. Hitting lefties has been an issue for Kentucky all season and it almost cost the team the regional against Indiana.
Kentucky nearly stole the regular season series against the Tigers by going 1-1 in close games, but I do not think that will happen this time around. LSU will be locked in and the bad matchup will stick out early. A great season ends on Sunday for the Bat Cats.
Prediction: LSU in 2
Drew Franklin
I’m writing this prediction as Nick Mingione speaks into my headphones on this morning’s show, so there is no way I’m picking LSU. Too hyped up. Sure, LSU has one of the best pitchers in the country. I’ve heard about him. Paul Skenes. Whatever. Kentucky is hot and having fun right now, so the ‘Cats win in three.
Mason Moore throws more shutout innings with his 94-MPH bowling ball. Devin Burkes hits two bombs in Baton Rouge. Go Cats.
Prediction: Kentucky in 3
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