BBNBA Playoff Preview: Eastern Conference Finals

twynstagram

And then there were two. With the elimination of the Phoenix Suns and Philadelphia 76ers, the BBNBA’s Playoff representation has shrunk to just two men: Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro and the Miami Heat (we’ll actually throw in Mychal Mulder, too). Between them and team president Pat Riley (hey, have you seen him in Winning Time yet?), KSR’s de facto rooting interest in the NBA’s “final four” is an easy choice.

With the Eastern Conference Finals tipping off Tuesday night, here’s everything you should know about the Heat and their opponent, the Boston Celtics.

Note: special KSR shoutout to BBNBA veteran Alex Weber, who would have no doubt volunteered to write this post if he hadn’t recently accepted a full-time position with On3’s national desk. We’ll miss ya, Alex!

Bubble rematch offers intrigue for revamped Heat, Celtics

It wasn’t so long ago that the Heat and Celtics squared off in this same scenario, albeit in the Disney World bubble. It’s actually the third time since 2011 that these teams have matched up in the conference finals, with Miami winning both previous matchups.

Most recently, the Heat outlasted the Celtics in six games in 2020. You may remember a certain play involving Adebayo and Jayson Tatum in Game 1 setting the tone for the series (fun fact: Bam texts Tatum about this regularly):

Bam Adebayo rejects Tatum at the rim 😲@MiamiHEAT take Game 1 in OT

(via @NBA) pic.twitter.com/cDlurgkii0
— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) September 16, 2020

Adebayo absolutely feasted in that series, averaging a team-high 21.8 points and 11 rebounds. He had the best postseason performance of his young career in Game 6, dropping 32 points and 14 rebounds to slam the door on the series. Boston’s frontcourt attack of Daniel Theis and Enes Kanter Freedom was ineffective, to say the least.

It shouldn’t be quite the same walk in the park (or paint?) for Adebayo this time around. The Celtics have long-since moved on from Kanter — one of the slowest big men in the league, Allah love him — and brought back “Giannis-stopper” Al Horford in his place. Horford was a difference-maker in the conference semis last week, and he should present a versatile defensive challenge for the Heat.

Beyond Horford, the Celtics’ attack is largely unchanged. Tatum remains their do-it-all offensive weapon, complemented by Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart on the wing. Additionally, they’ve made a solid upgrade at point with Derrick White replacing Kemba Walker.

For Miami, the ball still moves through Herro and Jimmy Butler. Those two lead the team in scoring and usage rate by a decent margin, with Adebayo coming in third. However, the addition of Kyle Lowry and Victor Oladipo — when healthy — has presented new options.

Defense vs. Defense

If you see some low-scoring affairs in this series, it’s not because of bad offense. It’s because you’re watching two of the best defensive units in the NBA go head-to-head. Boston and Miami ranked 1-2 in the Eastern Conference this year in defensive rating (106.9 and 109.1, respectively). The Celtics boasted the best defense in the entire league in shot-prevention, allowing an opponent effective field goal rate of just 50.2% (second-best of any team since 2018).

A lot of that good work can be attributed to Horford, Robert Williams, and Smart, the 2022 Defensive Player of the Year. The former Oklahoma State star is an absolute menace on the perimeter, averaging nearly two steals per contest in 2022. Both Smart and Williams have dealt with injury questions recently, with the former listed as questionable tonight.

For their part, Miami has been better than ever on defense of late. They hold the second-lowest eFG% in the Playoffs, just ahead of the Celtics — and they just shut down Joel Embiid, James Harden and the Sixers with relative ease.

One difference-maker has been P.J. Tucker, a veteran known for his versatility. Miami can go small with Tucker or Adebayo, each of whom is perfectly capable of guarding the ball from baseline to baseline.

Predictions

I have a few, so let’s list them summarily:

1. Tyler Herro will struggle — until he doesn’t.

Herro, the newly-crowned Sixth Man of the Year, has gotten buckets against just about everyone this year… except Boston. He averaged just 10.3 points against the Celtics in the regular season, by far the worst of any matchup. He shot a dismal 13-43 (30%) in those three games, with just four made threes. But still, this is the Playoffs — and the Bucket’s gonna Bucket eventually. He’ll get hot out of nowhere one of these days, and rest assured the internet (and I) will enjoy it.

2. You will (still) hate Grant Williams.

Remember him? Yup. Same guy, still flopping with the best of ’em. Williams has already drawn four charges this postseason, second-most of anyone, behind his teammate Smart. Not to mention, he’s been hot from deep; Williams erupted for 27 points in Sunday’s Game 7 clincher against the Bucks, hoisting a preposterous 18 three-point shots (making seven). He will do all the things that you hate in this series, and he will do them well.

3. Heat in seven, baby.

This should make for an incredibly well-balanced series. These are the two winningest Eastern Conference franchises of the past 20 years, with a combined eight Finals appearances in that time. But the precedent speaks for itself, and the top-seeded Heat has home court advantage — so I think that tips things slightly in their favor. Miami wins Game 7 at home, taking aim at their fourth championship.