Breakdown: Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt

It’s not often you find your football team fearing a game against Vanderbilt, but alas that is exactly where we find ourselves this week staring down the Commodores in a game where they’re fighting for pride. Vandy has surprised a few teams this season, notably Georgia and most recently Florida. And no matter how “bad” those teams are, if you knock off the Bulldogs and Gators in the same season, you’re having a good year. The ‘Dores are building up their program, and to lose against Kentucky after what it did last season and what it’s done so far this season, suffice it to say they expect to win this ballgame.

Wednesday: Flashback

If nothing else, senior quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels wins for the strangest name on the team. His stats aren’t all that spectacular having thrown for just 1,600 yards, though he does boast a solid 66 percent completion rate. His low number of touchdowns (10) versus a relatively high number of interceptions (7) also doesn’t indicate he’s really going to burn you — however he wins ballgames by being an exceptional manager. He keeps Vandy in the game using his leadership and he is running an offense that is scoring more than 30 points per game.

Jordan Matthews is one of the top receivers in the SEC and he has been a staple in the Commodores’ offense for years. He’s closing in on 1,000 yards on the season — a total he will likely pass against Kentucky — and he has 71 receptions on the year, averaging nearly 8 per game which is top-ten in the country. The No. 2 wide out, and he is a distant second, is Jonathan Krause who has just 32 receptions and 608 yards. After that the totals fall off the map, with just three wide outs barely over 10 catches on the year. The Commodores run their offense with a two-wide receiver set and a fullback, so it’s likely the UK secondary will keep the majority of their focus on Matthews.

At running back for the ‘Dores is sophomore Jerron Seymour. Having to replace now-NFL tailback Zac Stacy is quite a feat, but Seymour has put forth a valiant effort with 541 rushing yards on 118 attempts; just a little more than 4.5 yards-per-carry average. Where this stubby running back really busts your chops is at the goal line where he’s punched in 12 touchdowns in just nine games.

Also keep an eye out for Brian Kimbrow and Wesley Tate who platoon alongside Seymour. The two of them have combined for nearly 400 rushing yards on the season and 5 touchdowns, so the potential is there for those guys to break one. Kimbrow is explosive and one of the best recruits in Vanderbilt football history (similar to what many expect Boom Williams to be at Kentucky), but he is young and still lacks the explosiveness that the others bring.

Defense has slipped for Vanderbilt this season, because the last two years have been very good in Nashville. The D has seven returning starters from a year ago, and if they were playing in any conference other than the SEC, they would probably be getting more publicity. Likewise for Kentucky, because the Wildcats have recovered 10 fumbles on the season which is 11th in the country, and then compare that to the offense’s seven turnovers total and you have a pretty good ratio going. The Cats are still surrendering 35 points per game this season, and Vandy is scoring more than 32 per game, on top of having scored at least 24 points in each of its last 15 games. Also consider Vandy has collected a whopping 12 turnovers in its last three games.

Something’s got to give, and it looks like the Commodores offense is going to do a lot of scoring and the Kentucky defense is going to do a lot of head-scratching. Meanwhile the Wildcats offense might get a little something and the ‘Dores defense will find a way to secure the football at least a couple of times. It might seem downright depressing to focus on football this late in the year with the team holding on to just a pair of wins, but we have to keep looking ahead. There are good things coming, and it would just be wrong to hop on the bandwagon when the weather becomes fair.

@StuartHammerKSR