BTI's Rants and Ramblings: Are Bye Weeks Overrated?

Bryan the Internabout 8 years

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Aritcle written by:Bryan the InternBryan the Intern
So, we are now officially in that one week a year during the college football season where we really don't have anything to look forward to.  The vaunted BYE WEEK.  Where all you hear about is other fanbases excitedly talking about this week's game.  And if you are a Louisville fan, talking about this week's exhibition against a group of men playing like high school girls.  But, what often comes out of a bye week is an increase in fan expectation and confidence in his/her team.  A week allows a fanbase to lick it's wounds coming off a loss or celebrate the positives from a win that much more.  For Kentucky fans, obviously means we are licking our wounds. But I have already seen the Twittersphere and Facebook world being littered with fans who are coming up with ways Kentucky can beat Florida in 2 weeks.  And the bye week is most often mentioned.  Mark Stoops and Neal Brown have 2 weeks to prepare for a Florida team with a weak offense.  If any of our guys are injured, those 2 weeks will get them healthy.  More practice time for this inexperienced team.  Etc, etc.  But does a bye week normally generate a higher rate of success for the next game?  Check out UK results from the last several years following a bye week: 2012 (Samford) Spread: -15, (W, 34-3) 2011 (Jacksonville St.) Spread: -10, (W, 38-14) 2010 (at Tennessee) Spread: +2 (L, 24-14) 2009 (Louisville)  Spread: -13, (W, 31-27) 2008 (Western Kentucky) Spread: -21, (W, 41-3) 2008 (at Tennessee) Spread: +3 (L, 28-10) 2007 (at Vanderbilt) Spread: -4 (W, 27-20) 2007 (Tennessee) Spread: -2 (L, 52-50) 2006 (at Mississippi State) Spread: -1 (W, 34-31) 2005 (at South Carolina) Spread: +12 (L, 44-16) 2005 (at Ole Miss) Spread: +10 (L, 13-7) 2004 (Indiana) Spread: -2 (W, 51-32) 2004 (at Tennessee) Spread: +24 (L, 37-31) 2003 (at Vanderbilt) Spread: -6 (L, 28-17) That is the last 10 season results following bye weeks, with spreads included.  That is a total of 14 games.  Against the spread, Kentucky is 8-6 in the last 10 seasons.  Overall, they are 7-7.  Which is fairly standard from a betting perspective for the rest of the season.  More often than not, against the spread, even terrible teams finish around .500 for the season. Point being, while there are some unquestionable advantages to having a bye week, the actual results of the games following the bye week has been standard for the rest of the season.  Now, how does this relate to the Florida game?  Well, Kentucky will certainly be an underdog in that game.  As you see above, Kentucky has covered the spread in 2 of 5 games they have been an underdog in, but haven't won outright in any of them.  In fact, Kentucky has not won a game they were an underdog in following a bye week since beating Mississippi State in 1998.  So, Kentucky will be trying to break that trend next Saturday.  What do you think?  Does the bye week give Kentucky a better chance at beating Florida?

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2021-09-26

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