BTI's Rants and Ramblings: Hopefully Mintz Shows Upward Trend in Grad Transfer Production

So far in his tenure John Calipari has brought in four graduate transfers, with Kellan Grady coming in as his fifth.  And until Davion Mintz’s performance this past season, the production levels for those transfers dipped from their previous schools to Kentucky.  Some of that could be attributed to a decline in minutes but it seems the shooting performance of these players declined as well.  Grady will come to Kentucky following a 17 points per game season in which he shot 47% overall and 38% from behind the 3-point line.  That is exactly the kind of production that Kentucky will need.

Will Grady get the 34.4 minutes per game he received at Davidson?  Probably not.  So I wouldn’t expect his points to match what he was doing at Davidson but there is no reason his shooting percentages should drop.  Unfortunately, we have seen that occur in 3 of the 4 previous guys who have come here through the grad transfer route.

Julius Mays (Wright State)
2011-12 (Wright St.): 14.1 ppg, 42.8% fg, 42.4% 3p (33.4 minutes per game)
2012-13 (Kentucky): 9.3 ppg, 37.7% fg, 37.1% 3p (33.0 minutes per game)

Reid Travis (Stanford)
2017-18 (Stanford): 19.5 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 52.7% fg (34.0 minutes per game)
2018-19 (Kentucky): 11.2 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 53.7% fg (28.6 minutes per game)

Nate Sestina (Bucknell)
2018-19 (Bucknell): 15.8 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 53.6% fg (27.8 minutes per game)
2019-20 (Kentucky): 5.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 46.3% fg (19.8 minutes per game)

Davion Mintz (Creighton)
2018-19 (Creighton): 9.7 ppg, 41.6% fg, 34.7% 3p (28.9 minutes per game)
2020-21 (Kentucky): 11.5 ppg, 39.7% fg, 37.8% 3p (30.7 minutes per game)

I think Grady is likely the best of this bunch and brings in the best resume of any grad transfer that Kentucky has had.  It is hard to fathom that he won’t make a significant impact on the team next season.  And Davion Mintz somewhat broke the mold of disappointing grad transfers up to that point in the Calipari era.  My hope is Grady will continue that trend and be a top player in 2021-22.

What is your analysis of what has happened with the grad transfers under Calipari?  Is it simply a rise in competition has led to some decline in numbers?  Or is there something within the Cal system that has pushed these guys to be less productive than at their previous schools?