BTI's Rants and Ramblings: Mark Stoops and Group of 5 Spreads

On3 imageby:Bryan the Intern09/03/21

BryantheIntern

Mark Stoops and the Kentucky Wildcats are going to win against Louisiana-Monroe tomorrow. There is little doubt about the outcome of the game. How the Cats look while winning is going to be what so many are interested in the most. But many of us also dabble in the gambling arts and I see a lot of confidence in Mark Stoops and company being able to cover the 4-touchdown spread. And why wouldn’t you? Not only does Kentucky come in with a lot of confidence in Will Levis and the returning players but ULM coaches have basically already thrown in the towel.

But those who bet regularly know that history can tell us a lot. Trends matter and when it comes to Mark Stoops and Group of 5 games, the trends haven’t been the greatest.

MARK STOOPS AGAINST THE SPREAD

Mark Stoops teams have played 13 games against Group of 5 teams (Sun Belt, MAC, CUSA) since his arrival in Lexington. They are 11-2 in those games, so certainly nothing to worry about there. But, when it comes to covering the spread, things get a little bleaker.

2013 (Western Kentucky): 5.5 Point Favorite, LOST
2013 (Miami OH): 17.5 Point Favorite, WON
2014 (Ohio): 13.5 Point Favorite, WON
2014 (La-Monroe): 19.5 Point Favorite, WON
2015 (La-Lafayette): 17 Point Favorite, LOST
2016 (Southern Miss): 3.5 Point Favorite, LOST
2016 (New Mexico St): 22 Point Favorite, LOST
2017 (Southern Miss): 9.5 Point Favorite, LOST
2017 (E. Michigan): 14 Point Favorite, LOST
2018 (C. Michigan): 18.5 Point Favorite, LOST
2018 (MTSU): 16.5 Point Favorite, LOST
2019 (Toledo): 9.5 Point Favorite, WON
2019 (E. Michigan): 15.5 Point Favorite, WON

Kentucky is just 5-8 against the spread in Group of 5 games in Mark Stoops’ tenure, including just 2-7 since 2016. They did win their last two games, both in 2019. Again, all that matters is the Cats win. So this is not a criticism of Stoops but rather just an interesting fact to point out.

SEASON OPENERS AN EVEN BIGGER ISSUE

If you think an overall 5-8 record against the spread is bad, wait until you see the Cats did in season openers against Group of 5 teams:

2013 (Western Kentucky): 5.5 Point Favorite, LOST
2015 (La-Lafayette): 17 Point Favorite, LOST
2016 (Southern Miss): 3.5 Point Favorite, LOST
2017 (Southern Miss): 9.5 Point Favorite, LOST
2018 (C. Michigan): 18.5 Point Favorite, LOST
2019 (Toledo): 9.5 Point Favorite, WON

A combined 1-5. They outright lost two of those games almost got beat by ULL in 2015. That isn’t going to happen tomorrow because La-Monroe is far worse than any of the teams listed above. But there is a noticeable trend that Mark Stoops teams do not normally come out of the gates fast in a season. They rarely look sharp and often times have to gut out games more than fans would like.

This game sets up perfectly for the Cats to break the trends listed above. You obviously have an overmatched La-Monroe squad and a hungry UK team looking to bounce back after last year’s losing season. Will Levis will certainly want to show what he is made of and my guess is Liam Coen will have a couple of exciting play calls up his sleeve to show off. While 4 touchdowns against any FBS team is a tall order, I will be highly disappointed if the Cats don’t cover tomorrow. If they can come out sharp, which hasn’t happened often in season openers, I think we could see that spread covered easily by the 3rd quarter, and hopefully UK coasts home to victory.

BTI Prediction: Kentucky 48, La-Monroe 10

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2024-03-28