BTI's Rants and Ramblings: UK Actually Winning Most Games They Are Supposed to Win

One complaint you hear a lot from UK fans is about Kentucky blowing some games during the Mark Stoops era.  And while true that UK has let some games slip through their fingers over the past 5 years, those games were only considered disappointments because UK was close in them, not because UK was expected to win before the game.  In fact, UK has lost just 3 games in the 5 years under Stoops that they were favored to win: 2017 Ole Miss, 2016 Southern Miss, and 2013 Western Kentucky.  They haven't been favored against Florida in any season.  They haven't been favored against Louisville in any season.  In fact, they have only been favored in 22 of 62 games under Stoops.  But how they have done in those 22 games has been very impressive. Look how their overall record as a favorite has been in the past 5 seasons compared to other SEC teams: OVERALL (90.0%) Alabama: 63-7 (86.4%) Mississippi St: 32-5 (86.3%) Kentucky: 19-3 (84.2%) Vanderbilt: 16-3 (83.3%) Texas A&M: 35-7 (81.8%) Auburn: 36-8 (80.7%) LSU: 42-10 (79.4%) Tennessee: 31-8 (78.9%) Georgia: 45-12 (78.3%) Florida: 29-8 (76.9%) Arkansas: 20-6 (75.0%) South Carolina: 24-8 (72.5%) Missouri: 29-11 (69.0%) Ole Miss: 29-13 What about in SEC games only, as many of the games above are against the cupcake non-conference opponents.  Well, Kentucky has been favored in 7 of 40 SEC games under Stoops.  But again, despite the smaller sample size, UK has excelled compared against the other SEC teams: SEC GAMES ONLY (90.6%) Alabama: 39-4 (85.7%) Kentucky: 6-1 (80.0%) Mississippi St: 12-3 (79.3%) LSU: 23-6 (75.0%) Florida: 18-6 (74.2%) Georgia: 26-9 (73.9%) Auburn: 17-6 (72.2%) Missouri: 13-5 (71.4%) Texas A&M: 15-6 (57.8%) Tennessee: 11-8 (50.0%) Vanderbilt: 2-2 (50.0%) Ole Miss: 11-11 (45.4%) South Carolina: 5-6 (44.4%) Arkansas: 4-5 Let's take a minute to laugh at Ole Miss, South Carolina, and Arkansas, who have all lost at least half of their SEC games they were favored in over the last 5 years.  Looking at the schedule now, UK will probably be favored in 5 or 6 games this season, including 2 or 3 SEC games.  If the trend continues, you can almost surely count all of those games as wins.  A must in a lower tier program.  Now can UK pull off more surprises and make this a special season.

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