Donnie Freeman's recruitment puts Kentucky at a dangerous crossroads

If we’re ranking the transfer portal days by drama, today has moved into the top two. April 15, which started with Rob Wright returning to BYU and Zoom Diallo committing to Kentucky, is still No. 1, but by day’s end, today may have topped it, no matter what Donnie Freeman does or does not do. In a way, Freeman’s recruitment perfectly encapsulates both the current reality of college sports and the complicated spot Mark Pope finds himself in ahead of year three.

Before we get into all that, here is where we are as of Monday afternoon at 5 p.m. ET. Freeman is down to Kentucky, St. John’s, and Tennessee. Kentucky is the only school that Freeman has visited, and was in a great position following his trip to Lexington last week. Even after UConn and Alabama bowed out of the race and St. John’s and Tennessee jumped in, Kentucky felt confident, according to Jack Pilgrim and Jacob Polacheck, to the point that a commitment seemed imminent on Sunday.

That obviously did not happen. St. John’s now reportedly has the momentum for Freeman. Kentucky still has a shot, but it will require more money, north of $3 million. Meanwhile, Sebastian Rancik, Kentucky’s other top target at the four position, committed to Florida State on Sunday morning. Now, Pope and his staff have to decide if it’s worth potentially overpaying for Freeman or looking elsewhere, which could be even more of a gamble considering the limited options left in the portal. That’s a tough call, even if you don’t have the amount of pressure on you that Mark Pope does.

Let’s start with the best-case scenario. Kentucky ups its offer to Freeman, Freeman commits, comes to Lexington, and develops into an absolute star. Freeman has flashed promise thus far, a former top-ten recruit in the 2024 class. He was projected to be a second-round pick in some mock drafts last year, but returned to Syracuse, just to battle injuries throughout his sophomore season. With the right guidance — and a healthy foot — he’s got a high ceiling. Freeman is as good as you could get right now to pair with Malachi Moreno, Zoom Diallo, Alex Wilkins, Kam Williams, and whoever else Pope gets in the portal, or, dare we dream, Tyran Stokes. That team could have potential, and if they live up to it, no one will care what Kentucky paid for Freeman.

Next scenario: Kentucky passes on Freeman in hopes of finding someone else who’s better. Pickings are slim for starting fours in the portal right now, but theoretically, a big name could still enter before tomorrow night’s 11:59 p.m. ET deadline. There are also players like Allen Graves (Santa Clara) and Milan Momcilovic (Iowa State), who are in the portal but are also testing the NBA Draft waters. You could throw a bunch of money at them in hopes they withdraw. That’s also a gamble, and one that would linger as the pre-draft process drags on.

There are other scenarios. Kentucky could pass on Freeman and hope to find a big man overseas. Freeman could come to Kentucky and not develop into a star, a very possible outcome. In a way, that’s what happened with Brandon Garrison this past season, the staff banking on him taking a jump from year one in Lexington to two, and it not panning out. If that happens, maybe Braydon Hawthrone performs better than expected, much like Malachi Moreno this past season. Even then, any criticisms of Pope overpaying for Freeman would still be quieter than the backlash he and the staff may face for letting Freeman walk.

The truly unfortunate thing for Kentucky right now is that it’s facing the consequences of its own actions. Pope and his staff were too slow to build a front office. Keegan Brown came on board last month as the Director of Roster Management, serving as a de facto general manager, but it was too late. This cycle has hammered home the importance of a GM, particularly for negotiations like this one.

Also, the decision to leak the $22 million NIL budget for last year’s team continues to haunt Kentucky. It makes the Cats an easy target in negotiations, with agents using them as leverage with other schools and forcing Kentucky to overpay. Even if Kentucky isn’t operating with that same budget this year, an article came out in The Athletic last month claiming that the department has Scrooge McDuck money, which definitely doesn’t dispel the narrative.

So, here we are, waiting for Donnie Freeman to pick a school. Kentucky has gotten some big wins this portal cycle. The backcourt of Zoom Diallo and Alex Wilkins is strong, with Wilkins primed to be Kentucky’s leading scorer next season. Malachi Moreno and Kam Williams will be back (unless Moreno decides to stay in the draft, which seems like a stretch). Even just 24 hours ago, Kentucky was in a good spot to land its top target at the four to round out the starting five. Now, Rick Pitino, of all people, may be the guy to take him from Mark Pope and leave the Cats at a crossroads, cruel irony in a pressure-packed offseason.