Don’t Be Surprised if Kentucky Runs the Football in September

On3 imageby:Freddie Maggard08/05/21

Kentucky enters the 2021 football season with a new starting quarterback and a star transfer receiver led by a first-year play-caller that’s bringing an NFL system to Lexington. The Wildcats have installed the innovative scheme that will accentuate its passing attack during fall camp. However, all that newness may take some time to mesh.

UK is facing a daunting four-game series in October that includes home matchups against Florida and LSU followed by road games at Georgia and Mississippi State. A 4-0 September is imperative for October to having more meaning. Kentucky has two non-conference games in September against Louisiana Monroe and Chattanooga. It will also be tested by an anticipated early SEC contest against Mizzou before taking the show on the road to Columbia, South Carolina. While the Cats will seek offensive balance and will emphasize the passing game, Mark Stoops’ team could rely on its proven rushing attack and play bully ball to begin the season in order to ensure a hot start.

Built to Run

Kentucky is built to run. It sports one of the best offensive lines in the SEC led by the nation’s top run blocker in Darian Kinnard and super-senior center Luke Fortner. The Cats return the league’s leader in yards per carry in running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. who is joined by veteran Kavosiey Smoke and promising redshirt freshman JuTahn McClain. The pieces are in place to construct an effective run game, which has been a staple during the Stoops era in Lexington.

Louisiana Monroe and Chattanooga vs. the Run 

Terry Bowden takes over a Louisiana Monroe team that surrendered 249 rushing yards per game a year ago. Rich Rodriguez is ULM’s offensive coordinator which means it will go fast. That can backfire if three-and-outs don’t take much time off the clock which could lead to more UK offensive possessions. Let’s be honest here; the Wildcats will likely not show a great deal against the Warhawks. UK could be run-heavy to start the season. Plus, with a late lead likely, UK will work the clock and lean on the running game to close out the fourth quarter.

Chattanooga fared much better vs. the run after allowing 148 yards per contest. But, the FCS opponent will lack the depth to stand up against the Big Blue Wall and the Cats’ deep running back corps. This game could see more passing in the first half in a developmental week-three contest.

Missouri and South Carolina vs. the Run  

Kentucky’s week-two matchup against Missouri has been the focus of offseason conjecture. This game will have divisional ramifications. The Wildcats will be looking for a bounce-back performance vs. the Tigers after losing 20-10 last season. Mizzou’s rush defense ranked 7th in the SEC a year ago after giving up 162 yards per contest. UM returns a pair of defenders that will need to be considered. Trajan Jeffcoat is a preseason All-SEC pick and Kobie Whiteside experienced an impressive 2019 season but was hampered by injuries a year ago. Highly productive linebacker Nick Bolton is now a Kansas City Chief. Bolton was an All American and a mainstay for the Tigers.

Liam Coen will take his new offense on the road against South Carolina on September 25. New head coach Shane Beamer has energized the fan base in the offseason by creating a buzz in Columbia. While the frenzy is fun, the 2021 season could see Carolina struggle during its year-one rebuild. The Gamecocks finished 2020 ranked 13th against the run after surrendering 195 rush yards per game. Beamer returns All-SEC defender Kingsley Enagbare but the depth chart is fluid. This is a game that UK could go back to its running game roots to secure a road win.

Proven Run Game Success 

If it ain’t broke don’t fix it. Kentucky finished the 2020 ranked third in the SEC after averaging 197 rush yards per game. 2019 saw the Wildcats lead the SEC after running for 279 yards per contest. The 2018 Citrus Bowl Championship team racked up 199 yards on the ground per contest. So, I’ll say it again: if it ain’t broke don’t fix it. This especially applies in the early stages of the 2021 season. Coen has said that he intends on Chris Rodriguez Jr. getting 25 touches per game. His rushing attempts per contest will be a number to track in the first month of the season.

What Does All This Mean? 

I’m not advocating for Liam Coen to vacate the pass in UK’s first four games. Heck, he was brought to Lexington to overhaul the nation’s 122nd ranked passing attack. There is nowhere to go but up. But I am saying that while the Cats are refining their new aerial game, a return to their run-heavy philosophy could prove to be the deciding factor that catapults Kentucky to a 4-0 start. The runs may look different. Coen’s outside zone scheme will be an emphasis. But, don’t expect the offensive coordinator to go completely away from the power and inside attack that has proven to work.

Mark Stoops has been emphatic that he wants to see more balance from his offense. A strong run game will set up the play action pass. Kentucky will also need to establish a vertical threat from a receiving corps that will be led by Josh Ali and Wan’Dale Robinson. This will prevent opponents from stacking the box in order to slow Chris Rodriguez Jr. and company. New systems take time to shape. So, don’t be surprised if UK is more reliant on its established run game to ensure a hot start to the season.

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